- Israeli response to the recent attack is being discussed
- Israeli defenses were successful with help from allies
- Israel is determined to respond, but the level and form of response is still being debated
- Options for response include air attacks, missile attacks, or targeting the IRGC in Iraq and Syria
- The distance between Israel and Iran complicates the options for response
- The goal is to restore deterrence and make Iran fear attacking Israel again

Sky News military analyst Professor Michael Clarke takes a look at how Israel may react to Iran's attack, and what might happen next in the Middle East. 

Read more: https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-hamas-iran-latest-sky-news-blog-12978800

#gaza #israel #hamas #iran

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Let's look in a bit more detail what an Israeli response could be like.

I'm joined by military analyst Professor Michael Clarke.

Professor Clarke, great to have your thoughts on this today.

So what more have you learnt from that attack over the weekend and how likely is an Israeli response?

Yeah, I mean, we're learning quite a lot more.

After action reports come together, you start to collate them.

Always, these things get a bit more complicated.

The more you look at them the less simplistic they seem when they first occur.

I think the theme of what we're learning is that the Israelis were quite lucky in some respects because there were a lot of misfires.

We don't quite know how many yet, I'm trying to find out, but quite a lot of Iranian missiles didn't get much further than their launch sites for various reasons.

So the counts as a launch but you know some of them self-destructed.

have been a bigger barrage that was on its way then?

Well, the barrage was calculated at 330, but some proportion of that didn't get very far.

And then when we see what the Allies are saying.

I mean the American Navy and Air Force say that between them they think they've got about 70 drones.

The Israelis say 170 drones were launched now, that was their figure, 185 yesterday, they say 170 today on reflection.

The Americans got about 70, the British got about a dozen, the French were there, We don't know quite know how many they got some on their side of the the Iraqi Syrian border and the Jordanians defending their own airspace in the Jordan Valley and On their border with Iraq and Syria.

They got some as well So it looks as if about over a hundred of the 170 drones, maybe quite a lot more than a hundred, were brought down by the Allies.

And the Americans got some of the ballistic missiles as well.

The American Navy ships that were in the Mediterranean, they got a handful of the ballistic missiles, which is very good going.

So the Israeli defences did very well but they wouldn't have done quite as well if it wasn't for their allies and that gives the Allies more political weight in what the Israelis are now thinking about what we're going to do next.

They're still talking about it and the Allied voice is a bit louder in that response than it would have been before this attack was resisted in this way.

Yeah, as our previous guest was saying, his sources are telling that they've resolved within the cabinet that they will respond.

Yeah, when and how we don't quite know but we're going to find out pretty soon.

And the contribution that the Allies made to that defence I think has become quite interesting.

Talk to us about what form it could take.

I guess there are a few options, aren't there, as to how Israel could respond.

the biggest option is, I mean, 1 issue is distance.

Because the distance between Israel and Iran, the shortest distance between the 2 borders is about 650 miles.

So it's getting on towards 1,000 miles or more if you're talking about targets inside Iran.

So if the Israelis wanted to launch strong air attacks to really hurt Iran then they've got to cross the airspace of Jordan, Iraq or Saudi Arabia and they've got to get permission to fly.

It doesn't mean to say they wouldn't do it, but it means that it makes it even more politically controversial if they do.

The alternative is to go the sea route, go the long way round.

So to take a route all the way down the Red Sea, into the Gulf of Aden, right round into the Gulf and into around that way.

It can be done, air-to-air refueling, but it's much more hazardous, it takes longer, lots more could go wrong.

They could launch missile attacks from Israel, you don't need permission to launch missiles because they go higher than effective airspace, so missile attacks from Israel into Iran are possible, don't do as much damage, not as obvious and they need an awful lot of missiles to really hurt them.

Much more likely, in my view, are attacks against the IRGC, the Iranian Republican Guard Corps, in their operations in Iraq and Syria.

If they were to hit IRGC people and facilities in Iraq and Syria, that would send a message, but it would not be hitting Iran directly.

Most people would say that response is below the threshold that will provoke Iran, and maybe we could call an end to it there.

But a lot of people in Israel are saying look the fact is deterrence is broken down, the fact that they attacked us shows that they don't fear us, we've got to restore the fear that they dare not attack us And that's the argument that's going on at the moment as we speak in the cabinets, the different cabinets of Israel.


Speaker 0: Let's look in a bit more detail what an Israeli response could be like. I'm joined by military analyst Professor Michael Clarke. Professor Clarke, great to have your thoughts on this today. So what more have you learnt from that attack over the weekend and how likely is an Israeli response?

Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we're learning quite a lot more. After action reports come together, you start to collate them. Always, these things get a bit more complicated. The more you look at them the less simplistic they seem when they first occur. So we're learning some more.

I think the theme of what we're learning is that the Israelis were quite lucky in some respects because there were a lot of misfires. We don't quite know how many yet, I'm trying to find out, but quite a lot of Iranian missiles didn't get much further than their launch sites for various reasons. So the counts as a launch but you know some of them self-destructed. So Could

Speaker 0: have been a bigger barrage that was on its way then?

Speaker 1: Yes. Well, the barrage was calculated at 330, but some proportion of that didn't get very far. So take that into account. And then when we see what the Allies are saying. I mean the American Navy and Air Force say that between them they think they've got about 70 drones.

The Israelis say 170 drones were launched now, that was their figure, 185 yesterday, they say 170 today on reflection. The Americans got about 70, the British got about a dozen, the French were there, We don't know quite know how many they got some on their side of the the Iraqi Syrian border and the Jordanians defending their own airspace in the Jordan Valley and On their border with Iraq and Syria. They got some as well So it looks as if about over a hundred of the 170 drones, maybe quite a lot more than a hundred, were brought down by the Allies. And the Americans got some of the ballistic missiles as well. The American Navy ships that were in the Mediterranean, they got a handful of the ballistic missiles, which is very good going.

So the Israeli defences did very well but they wouldn't have done quite as well if it wasn't for their allies and that gives the Allies more political weight in what the Israelis are now thinking about what we're going to do next. So will the Israelis respond? Yes, they're determined to respond. How do they respond? They're still talking about it and the Allied voice is a bit louder in that response than it would have been before this attack was resisted in this way.

Speaker 0: Yeah, as our previous guest was saying, his sources are telling that they've resolved within the cabinet that they will respond. It's just the level of response.

Speaker 1: Yeah, when and how we don't quite know but we're going to find out pretty soon. And the contribution that the Allies made to that defence I think has become quite interesting.

Speaker 0: Talk to us about what form it could take. I guess there are a few options, aren't there, as to how Israel could respond. I mean,

Speaker 1: the biggest option is, I mean, 1 issue is distance. Because the distance between Israel and Iran, the shortest distance between the 2 borders is about 650 miles. So it's getting on towards 1,000 miles or more if you're talking about targets inside Iran. So if the Israelis wanted to launch strong air attacks to really hurt Iran then they've got to cross the airspace of Jordan, Iraq or Saudi Arabia and they've got to get permission to fly. They won't.

Speaker 0: They've got

Speaker 1: all sorts of political reasons. They won't get that permission. It doesn't mean to say they wouldn't do it, but it means that it makes it even more politically controversial if they do. The alternative is to go the sea route, go the long way round. So to take a route all the way down the Red Sea, into the Gulf of Aden, right round into the Gulf and into around that way.

It can be done, air-to-air refueling, but it's much more hazardous, it takes longer, lots more could go wrong. They could launch missile attacks from Israel, you don't need permission to launch missiles because they go higher than effective airspace, so missile attacks from Israel into Iran are possible, don't do as much damage, not as obvious and they need an awful lot of missiles to really hurt them. Much more likely, in my view, are attacks against the IRGC, the Iranian Republican Guard Corps, in their operations in Iraq and Syria. This is what they've been doing anyway. If they were to hit IRGC people and facilities in Iraq and Syria, that would send a message, but it would not be hitting Iran directly.

That would give them a response. Most people would say that response is below the threshold that will provoke Iran, and maybe we could call an end to it there. But a lot of people in Israel are saying look the fact is deterrence is broken down, the fact that they attacked us shows that they don't fear us, we've got to restore the fear that they dare not attack us And that's the argument that's going on at the moment as we speak in the cabinets, the different cabinets of Israel.

Speaker 0: Yeah, okay. Michael, Claudio, thank you very much.

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Iran attack: How likely is an Israeli response?