- The speaker does not view the world in terms of good guys and bad guys, but rather as a realist who prioritizes the security and dominance of their own country.
- They believe that if China were to become the dominant superpower in Asia and the US in the Western Hemisphere, there would be intense security competition between the two powers.
- This competition could involve small conflicts or even large, unstable military conflicts, potentially leading to war.
- The speaker suggests that wars would likely involve proxies of each superpower, such as the situation with Taiwan.
- The Middle East, particularly the Persian Gulf, is mentioned as a potential hotspot for proxy wars between the US and China.
- The speaker acknowledges the possibility of a dramatic partnership between Iran, Russia, and China against the US, Europe, and Israel.

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John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.

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What does a world with China as the sole dominant superpower look like?

I mean, a little bit underlying our discussion is this kind of idea that US is the good guys and China is the bad guys.

First of all, you know, dividing the world into good guys and bad guys seems to somehow miss the nuance of this whole human civilization project we're undertaking.

But what does the world look like where China is the dominant sole superpower in a unipolar world?

Well, I don't tend to think of the world in terms of good guys and bad guys.

As a good realist, I think that states are states, they're all black boxes.

I don't discriminate between democracies and autocracies.

And as an American, I'm interested in the security of my country, the survival of my country.

So I want the United States to be the most powerful state in the world, which means I want the United States to dominate the Western Hemisphere.

I want us to be a regional hegemon, and I want to make sure that China does not dominate Asia the way we dominate the Western Hemisphere.

It's not because I think we're the good guys and they're the bad guys.

If I were Chinese and I were in Beijing and I was Xi Jinping's national security advisor, I'd tell him what we gotta do is make sure we dominate the world, or dominate our region, and then do everything we can to undermine America's position in the Western Hemisphere, right?

So I guess you could say I do view the world in terms of good guys and bad guys because I'm an American.

Is it possible to have a stable, peaceful world with a good balance of power where it's China and US as superpowers.

It's a bipolar world, no longer unipolar.

Yeah, okay, so you're hypothesizing a world where they dominate Asia, and we dominate the Western Hemisphere.

I believe there would be a great deal of security competition, intense security competition between those 2 superpowers.

So it could be small, small military conflicts, or it could be extremely large, unstable military conflicts, right?

So I distinguish between security competition and war.

And what I'm telling you is you'll have an intense security competition where there's no shooting.

Where if there's shooting, it's mainly proxies that are doing the fighting.

Or you could have a case where 1 of those superpowers was involved in a war against a proxy of the other superpower.

The United States fought the Chinese who were allied with the Soviets at the time.

But a war between the United States and China, just like a war between the United States and China, just like a war between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

So I think you'd have an intense security competition, right, you'd have wars involving proxies of each of those 2 superpowers, and you would probably have some wars where 1 of the superpowers was involved in a proxy, right, with 1 of the other superpower's proxies.

So it seems likely then, if that's the case, then it would be Taiwan is the proxy and US fighting China through the proxy of

Yeah, well, that would assume the United States, but you wanna remember, you're hypothesizing a situation where China dominates Asia.

Well, the Middle East could be a good case.

Oh boy, And then our discussion of Israel becomes even more dramatically.

I think in this scenario, if you're talking about a US-China competition, right, and you're talking about the Middle East, I think it's the Gulf.

It's the Saudis, the Iranians, the Iraqis, it's the oil.

Don't you think it could be Israel versus Iran with some very 1984 kind of dramatic partnership of Iran, Russia, and China versus United States, Europe, and Israel?

Now that I, I mean, I hadn't thought about it until you said it, but yeah, I think that that is possible.

Yeah, well that, you know, in your scenario where China already dominates Asia and we dominate the Western Hemisphere, I think you start talking about where the most likely places that the United States and China go head to head or fight through proxies, I think it is the Gulf or the Middle East.


Speaker 0: What does a world with China as the sole dominant superpower look like? I mean, a little bit underlying our discussion is this kind of idea that US is the good guys and China is the bad guys. First of all, you know, dividing the world into good guys and bad guys seems to somehow miss the nuance of this whole human civilization project we're undertaking. But what does the world look like where China is the dominant sole superpower in a unipolar world?

Speaker 1: Well, I don't tend to think of the world in terms of good guys and bad guys. As a good realist, I think that states are states, they're all black boxes. I don't discriminate between democracies and autocracies. But having said that, I am an American. And as an American, I'm interested in the security of my country, the survival of my country.

So I want the United States to be the most powerful state in the world, which means I want the United States to dominate the Western Hemisphere. I want us to be a regional hegemon, and I want to make sure that China does not dominate Asia the way we dominate the Western Hemisphere. It's not because I think we're the good guys and they're the bad guys. If I were Chinese and I were in Beijing and I was Xi Jinping's national security advisor, I'd tell him what we gotta do is make sure we dominate the world, or dominate our region, and then do everything we can to undermine America's position in the Western Hemisphere, right? That'd be my view.

So I guess you could say I do view the world in terms of good guys and bad guys because I'm an American.

Speaker 0: More like us and them.

Speaker 1: Yeah, it's us and them. That's a nice way to put it. Yeah, it's us versus them. Not so much good guys versus bad guys.

Speaker 0: Is it possible to have a stable, peaceful world with a good balance of power where it's China and US as superpowers. It's a bipolar world, no longer unipolar.

Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so you're hypothesizing a world where they dominate Asia, and we dominate the Western Hemisphere. I believe there would be a great deal of security competition, intense security competition between those 2 superpowers.

Speaker 0: The definition of intense matters here. So it could be small, small military conflicts, or it could be extremely large, unstable military conflicts, right?

Speaker 1: Well, conflict, let's use the word war. So I distinguish between security competition and war. And what I'm telling you is you'll have an intense security competition where there's no shooting. Where if there's shooting, it's mainly proxies that are doing the fighting. Much like the Vietnam War, right?

Or you could have a case where 1 of those superpowers was involved in a war against a proxy of the other superpower. Korean War, think the Korean War. The United States fought the Chinese who were allied with the Soviets at the time. But a war between the United States and China, just like a war between the United States and China, just like a war between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. That's what you really want to avoid.

So I think you'd have an intense security competition, right, you'd have wars involving proxies of each of those 2 superpowers, and you would probably have some wars where 1 of the superpowers was involved in a proxy, right, with 1 of the other superpower's proxies.

Speaker 0: So it seems likely then, if that's the case, then it would be Taiwan is the proxy and US fighting China through the proxy of

Speaker 1: Taiwan. Yeah, well, that would assume the United States, but you wanna remember, you're hypothesizing a situation where China dominates Asia.

Speaker 0: Oh, already has dominated.

Speaker 1: Yes, already dominated Taiwan. I

Speaker 0: see. Where do you find the proxies?

Speaker 1: Well, the Middle East could be a good case. Oh wow. Persian Gulf.

Speaker 0: Oh boy, And then our discussion of Israel becomes even more dramatically.

Speaker 1: Yeah, well Israel gets involved. I think in this scenario, if you're talking about a US-China competition, right, and you're talking about the Middle East, I think it's the Gulf. It's the Saudis, the Iranians, the Iraqis, it's the oil.

Speaker 0: Don't you think it could be Israel versus Iran with some very 1984 kind of dramatic partnership of Iran, Russia, and China versus United States, Europe, and Israel?

Speaker 1: I think that's possible, yeah. I think that's possible, yeah. Now that I, I mean, I hadn't thought about it until you said it, but yeah, I think that that is possible.

Speaker 0: Isn't that terrifying?

Speaker 1: Yeah, well that, you know, in your scenario where China already dominates Asia and we dominate the Western Hemisphere, I think you start talking about where the most likely places that the United States and China go head to head or fight through proxies, I think it is the Gulf or the Middle East. And the scenario that you you

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What happens if China wins? | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman