1 hours 17 seconds
🇬🇧 English
Speaker 1
00:00
Welcome to Life of Cast, my name is Brian Krogsgaard here. Josh Olsewicz, like always, and he's laughing at me. I don't know why.
Speaker 2
00:10
Oh, I just I wasn't sure you were going to get the name right. I thought it was going to be a botch job, you know.
Speaker 3
00:15
On my own name?
Speaker 2
00:16
Yeah, on what the show was. I mean, you're a busy guy. You got a lot going on, you know?
Speaker 2
00:19
I don't blame you. I'm just, we got there though.
Speaker 3
00:22
Yeah. Flawless.
Speaker 2
00:24
Flawless. Yeah. Flawless. I'm like, I've heard you say it so many times that I was like, oh, what is he going to say?
Speaker 3
00:31
Oh. These charts are not flawless. These charts are sad.
Speaker 2
00:37
These charts are a big, big. Oh, let me tell you what. But I've been preoccupied with drive chains, drama.
Speaker 3
00:45
So drive chain,
Speaker 2
00:46
drive chain drama. We'll talk about it later on in the show. But I've been so preoccupied with that over the past couple days, like I haven't really cared about price.
Speaker 2
00:55
That's the good thing about a governance debate. Like you can get down to like the core and the fundamentals of why any of us are here in the first place. And I don't know, it's interesting, but we'll start off with price and macro, I guess.
Speaker 3
01:09
Drive chain.
Speaker 2
01:11
Drive chain, yeah. I mean, the altcoin people are gonna be like, whatever, who cares? We can already do this on our chain no 1 doesn't matter guys like you're you basically the altcoin people are gonna say you're arguing over something that we've had for years like who cares we don't we don't care we already have a what we can do elsewhere anyway
Speaker 3
01:30
all right
Speaker 4
01:30
we'll talk about it we'll talk about
Speaker 3
01:31
okay
Speaker 2
01:32
Let's talk about price that first though.
Speaker 3
01:34
Yeah,
Speaker 2
01:35
cuz I'm fired up, baby
Speaker 3
01:36
You have 4 charts up. So I'm gonna just you know, put Bitcoin on here.
Speaker 2
01:41
Yeah, sure
Speaker 3
01:43
Couple things that I noticed right away Josh after we had the SEC get the smackdown, losing a GBTC ruling.
Speaker 2
01:53
Which is good. Market. We didn't want to root for Ripple, but you had to.
Speaker 4
01:56
At the
Speaker 2
01:57
end of the day, you had to root for GBTC, even though Barry is Barry and Grayscale is Grayscale and the product is flawed and the fees are insane and it's a hostage situation. But anyway, yes, we won. Go ahead.
Speaker 3
02:11
The market whispers like the Bloomberg type of people that follow ETFs changed their likelihood of a spot ETF to 75% for
Speaker 1
02:19
2023, 95%
Speaker 4
02:21
for
Speaker 1
02:21
2024.
Speaker 3
02:24
And there was a chance that they thought that they might just approve them right out of the gate because it was enough of a smack down from this whatever court, circuit court, I think, whatever. That it was a bad loss, bad beat.
Speaker 2
02:41
Well if you're a bully and you get punched in the face, I don't think you just turn around and forgive. Forgive whatever's going on or change your mind, you know, and that's.
Speaker 3
02:51
But nevertheless, it looks like a spot. Bitcoin ETF is on the way. Yeah.
Speaker 3
02:58
Realistically probably means also an ETH 1, sometime in the year or 2 to follow.
Speaker 2
03:03
Here we go. It starts already. The alt people.
Speaker 2
03:05
And let me tell you why this is good news for something that isn't Bitcoin. Let me tell you.
Speaker 3
03:10
And the market liked it. The market liked it for a day.
Speaker 2
03:15
Why do we care about ETFs?
Speaker 3
03:17
I'll tell you why in a minute. The market liked it for a day and then retraced it fully. If you look at the weekly chart, couple of things to note, 200 week, which it pierced right into, now getting rejected off of.
Speaker 2
03:31
Well, partially it was rejected because all of the pending ETF applications got delayed.
Speaker 3
03:41
Not denied, they got only delayed. But also the
Speaker 1
03:43
200
Speaker 3
03:44
day got denied.
Speaker 2
03:49
The 20 week, the 200 week, the 50 day, the 200 day, death cross, radiation, devastation, it's over. It's September, this is September. Embrace September.
Speaker 3
04:00
That's what moving average analysis would tell you. Moving average analysis would tell you, and I'm not belittling moving average analysis because I follow them, I use them. And I'm looking at this and it's telling me to sell.
Speaker 3
04:16
And I'm like, wait, but when ETFs...
Speaker 2
04:19
I don't know if it's telling you to sell so much as it's telling you things are not strong, we are weak, we have no upwards momentum. I wouldn't say sell per se. I would just say...
Speaker 3
04:35
Saying the trend is not your friend.
Speaker 2
04:37
I would not expect...
Speaker 3
04:38
This is the end.
Speaker 2
04:41
I would not expect prices to go up anytime super soon. That's what I think it's telling me anyway.
Speaker 3
04:48
Yeah. Anyway, I just wanna point that out.
Speaker 2
04:52
Look, it's a pre-having year. It's September. We don't have any good news.
Speaker 2
04:58
Regulations haven't really changed too much. Rates in the macro picture I don't think looks good. We'll get to that. But we don't have any tailwinds, right?
Speaker 2
05:12
We just have continuous headwinds. We had a gust of a tailwind when Gensler got smacked down by the courts. But they still have 45 days. It's what's just down to like 43 or whatever now.
Speaker 2
05:25
Or they could try to appeal this or do whatever they want. This isn't an automatic GBTC conversion. They could deny ETFs for a million reasons. They could just make up another 1.
Speaker 2
05:37
Worst case scenario is they pull all of the futures ETFs, which is an option. If the judge's rationale was, which is I think we all agree is correct, that you can't just arbitrarily deny an ETF based on the same criteria that another ETF has approved, you know, the futures ETFs. So theoretically, the SEC could turn around and just revoke all of the futures ETFs. I don't think they're going to do that.
Speaker 2
06:06
But anyway, I think it was rightly celebrated as a great result for crypto, for Bitcoin. But it's the battle, not the war. You know, it's not the whole kit and caboodle.
Speaker 3
06:26
It makes the chart look bad.
Speaker 2
06:30
It does not make price go up. Sure. Yes.
Speaker 3
06:35
We also have a really nice chart response. If you're bullish the dollar.
Speaker 2
06:42
That's what I had my 4 charts up for.
Speaker 3
06:45
I'm just doing 1 at a time. Okay, Zoom in on them and I'll let your charts be visible.
Speaker 2
06:49
Okay, go ahead. Dollar.
Speaker 3
06:53
Dollar performing well. Daily and weekly both look quite good to me.
Speaker 2
07:00
It looks exactly like
Speaker 1
07:02
2021,
Speaker 2
07:03
which is extremely scary.
Speaker 3
07:06
Yeah.
Speaker 2
07:07
The beginning of 2021, when we were talking about for weeks that there was going to be this inverted head and shoulders technical breakout, and then we raised rates by 500 basis points, right? I don't think we're going to raise rates another 500 basis points, but the technicals for the dollar look phenomenal here.
Speaker 3
07:24
And what's amazing is that the stock market also looks good. The stock market is hovering here below all-time highs, bouncing off short-term moving averages. Strong weeks, maybe a little top-heavy, but top-heavy as in from a breadth perspective.
Speaker 3
07:43
The biggest companies are performing the best. But yeah, crypto is just not participating in the fun.
Speaker 2
07:53
Mike says that news doesn't matter. I'd agree with somewhat, but if the news is related to flows, and we don't have inflows, and no 1 wants to touch this thing, it's basically toxic radiation without regulation and regulatory clarity. Those are where the flows are coming from.
Speaker 2
08:10
Then that's a problem. So until we have actual flows, we're just completely drifting based on inverse correlations to the DX live effectively.
Speaker 3
08:23
Yeah, there's just a lot of other interesting things like the Dixie Dixie looks good stocks look good. VIX is getting crushed. Bitcoin looks like crap.
Speaker 2
08:39
Well, something's got to give here because I don't think we can be bullish everything for an extended period of time. This is my DXY chart. I don't know why my Mac is lagging, but It's above the daily cloud, continues to hold above the daily clouds.
Speaker 3
09:03
If this were Bitcoin after a long downtrend, we would be excited.
Speaker 2
09:06
Right. If this were any other chart. You know, as you as a true technical objective analyst should treat this Like this is phenomenal. Max Payne probably is dollar to like 111 plus, right?
Speaker 5
09:21
I can't imagine anything worse.
Speaker 3
09:21
The only thing this is telling us is enjoy our trips to third world countries for a while. Which are gonna be the only places we can afford to live.
Speaker 2
09:31
Yeah, it's not great. So here's what I don't understand, the picture currently. You've got a strong dollar.
Speaker 2
09:38
You've got oil making multi-week. 85 bucks. This is a huge move for oil. Monday, Sunday coming into Monday, I was saying, look, there's a head and shoulders here.
Speaker 2
09:52
The invalidation criteria is 82. We blew past
Speaker 1
09:55
82.
Speaker 2
09:57
We have a bullish TK recross on the 12 hour. And on oil, you've got this multi, multi month, like Adam and Eve fractal, right? So I don't understand if energy is bullish.
Speaker 2
10:12
And that means likely inflation continues to increase. Why is that good for SMP and the queues? That's what doesn't make sense to me. Because if you look at the SMP and NASDAQ right now, they also look like they have a canceled Head and shoulders.
Speaker 6
10:33
I don't know why this isn't responding, but
Speaker 2
10:35
I blamed Steve Jobs directly
Speaker 3
10:39
And do that post-mortem,
Speaker 2
10:41
I don't care Anyway, I think I think something's got to give here It the The oil head and shoulders very clearly is invalidated. The S&P and the NASDAQ head and shoulder patterns still may be intact. But I agree, everything looks great.
Speaker 2
10:58
That isn't crypto.
Speaker 3
11:00
Unless you're in crypto, you're feeling good, feeling right, feeling correct in whatever your take is. Unless you're short rates.
Speaker 2
11:14
Right. So what this is signaling to me is that rates should go up if inflation stays high. But then if you look at the jobs market, which if you want to look at those charts, job openings came down this week, Unemployment ticked up slightly this week. That would be evidence for the Fed to pause here.
Speaker 2
11:40
This is from Truflation. Truflation, by the way, hovering just below
Speaker 1
11:44
3%.
Speaker 2
11:46
The Fed now inflation casting is like at 3.8, which is a massive, I'd argue, a massive increase from the previous month. So there's a very muddy picture what is going to happen here, but I can't imagine the Fed is going to just lay down if inflation is holding at 3% still. What do you think?
Speaker 3
12:14
I don't think inflation is really strong, as strong as the numbers indicate. Lagging. Real market is a little more difficult than the charts would indicate.
Speaker 2
12:29
So true inflation is at
Speaker 1
12:30
267.
Speaker 2
12:33
There's this housing argument in the inflation data, PCE, which is a different type of measurement is still elevated. We're still not to the 2% target. Unemployment is still quite low.
Speaker 2
12:47
Do I think they're going to keep raising? Probably not. Should they? I don't know.
Speaker 2
12:55
But if inflation, here's the weird thing, right? If inflation goes to 3 plus and unemployment is still sub 4, then what do they do? You know? I don't know.
Speaker 2
13:09
I think they're in a rock and hard place because everyone seems to think that they're over-tightening and that we're going to completely explode the economy.
Speaker 3
13:18
I think that's probably true. If they keep going. I think it's at a place where they should at least wait and see.
Speaker 3
13:28
I think the rate of change has been too severe. Well, they should have started earlier.
Speaker 2
13:34
Clearly, they're just right. Exactly. They're trying to make up for their misgivings months and months ago.
Speaker 3
13:41
Too many, too many people are employed, they need to stop having such a positive work environment.
Speaker 2
13:52
I mean, that's the end conclusion, right? Like we need people to get laid off. We need wages to come down.
Speaker 2
13:58
There's this anti-wage, anti-worker sentiment that I just do not understand. I don't get it. I just I don't under like how do you expect people to live like yes inflation is high. You can't wages have to come up.
Speaker 2
14:13
Look at all the people that are on strike right now. They just can't live. I don't know what to tell people. Like what we're just supposed to tell hundreds of thousands of people that you know, tough luck.
Speaker 2
14:24
I just don't get it.
Speaker 3
14:26
This chart says that the recession can take some time.
Speaker 2
14:33
Yeah, so David Rosenberg's been bearish for months. He was on a podcast with Blockworks yesterday. He was fired up, let me tell you.
Speaker 3
14:46
A fired up bear.
Speaker 2
14:47
You're either in the camp that prices are wrong, we've been bearish, I don't care. Or you're in the camp that I'm going to trade what's in front of me and be honest. Fundamentally as a macro person, you might have been bearish for a year and a half, but that's not exactly how it played out.
Speaker 2
15:06
So you can't really disagree with what he's saying. But at the same time, he's completely wrong with everything regarding prices and the market.
Speaker 3
15:19
That's a common result for bears. Yeah. I was wrong.
Speaker 3
15:23
I was right. I just had the wrong timing. Like congratulations.
Speaker 2
15:28
Well, all of his rationale and justifications are completely correct. It's just the reality is we weren't bearish. Sorry.
Speaker 2
15:35
Like, you know, so he might be right eventually.
Speaker 3
15:40
Well, is it bullish or bearish that retail flows are increasing? This would be insane, insinuating that the dumb money is back, right?
Speaker 2
15:53
Yeah, I mean, I can't imagine that's bullish.
Speaker 3
15:55
Can they buy our bags?
Speaker 2
15:57
Well, I also think this is a product of people looking for lottery tickets, basically. Like people are looking for a way to make it through the cost of living. And they think that, hey, this is a way out, right?
Speaker 2
16:12
A way out would be to bet and gamble on the market. Look how good it's done this year.
Speaker 3
16:17
Skullcap in chat says people are overspending still. And I think that's probably true. I think people are still still maybe having similar incomes to what they had before, but they're not having this like discretionary gain of wealth through capital gains.
Speaker 3
16:32
And their cost of life is increasing, and I think that could create a squeeze on your typical person. Not to mention, Josh, since we've recorded, student loans are coming back, and that's, I don't know, a trillion dollars, some crazy number. Impact delinquencies on some of the shorter term debt, I think automotive and credit card or something along those, 1 of those types of debts, delinquencies are up. I think a lot of people probably got used to not paying off their student loans for almost 3 years and getting hit with them now is gonna have an impact.
Speaker 2
17:08
Yeah, so consumer savings down almost completely. If you separate that out by like cohort and income, you know, obviously the people at the bottom of that ladder are completely hosed. And yes, student loan interest starts today.
Speaker 2
17:24
Student loan payments are due by the end of this month. Or they go into delinquency. So yeah, we're going to see crazy headlines in a month about the number of student loans and delinquency. Because yes, credit cards are, delinquencies are up.
Speaker 2
17:41
Car loan delinquencies are up. Consumer personal loan delinquencies are up. The question is, is it enough? Is that enough?
Speaker 2
17:50
It's really
Speaker 3
17:50
not enough. Listen Josh, I'm sure so many people put their student loan payments that they would have made into savings so they can pay them off very quickly now, right? Right?
Speaker 2
18:01
I don't think so. But did they ever have that money to begin with? Like my argument is look, most of these people were never going to pay back their loan.
Speaker 2
18:10
We can say that they've been delinquent for years. Like the loan, the money is never coming back. Money's gone. The money, They never had the money, right?
Speaker 2
18:19
They never got a job to support the loan payment, or they didn't get wages to support the loan payment. It's not like, oh, these people, they're spending way too much. They're overspending. They're so evil.
Speaker 2
18:31
They should be paying back their loan. Okay, but
Speaker 5
18:36
I don't think that's the way to go.
Speaker 3
18:37
Also, for a lot of these professional degrees, I mean, it can take 15, 20 years to pay them back, even when you do. It's a long process with most of the payment plans that exist out there and structures for repayment. And also, I think because they were paused and then there was all this talk of forgiveness, I think people's like appetite to be delinquent is probably significantly increased.
Speaker 3
19:06
Like, what do you say? What are you what are you going to do to me? Like, if I don't pay it? It's like, oh, we're gonna destroy your credit.
Speaker 3
19:14
But they probably do it anyway. They don't have the money or they think there'll be a magic solution later. Maybe there will be.
Speaker 2
19:23
I mean, I lean left and this is very much a political thing. So my argument isn't like, these people are so evil. They're welfare queens, They're eating bonbons on the couch.
Speaker 2
19:33
They don't have 3 jobs to support their student loan payment. Like I'm on the other side of the equation where clearly they fucked up in some degree if they can't pay back their loan, whether that be just choosing the wrong major, why are we giving 18 year olds, you know, all this debt anyway, you know, the whole system is broken. So there's just no good that can come with this. But my entire argument is based around, look, this money was never there.
Speaker 2
20:00
The money was never gonna come in. We should have never given these people loans.
Speaker 4
20:04
But we did.
Speaker 3
20:05
Did you know that the maximum deduction for student loan interest is only $2, 500 a year?
Speaker 4
20:10
Yeah.
Speaker 3
20:11
That should be 100% in my opinion.
Speaker 2
20:13
That's based on income as well. So If you're over a certain income threshold, you do not get that deduction.
Speaker 3
20:20
I think there's so much creative stuff that they could do to like not forgive student loans, but to make them make it hurt a little less from like an interest perspective. And well,
Speaker 2
20:32
they have income based repayment, So you can get your payment down significantly based on it's like
Speaker 1
20:40
10%
Speaker 2
20:40
of your income or something. But that doesn't mean the interest still accrues, you know, and the interest right now is
Speaker 1
20:47
6%.
Speaker 3
20:48
And the loans then just never go away. It's like a lifetime of student loan repayment.
Speaker 2
20:53
Right. So after 20 years, they get, what's the term? They go, they, they, you know, and after 20 years, but that's just federal private loans. That's a whole nother story.
Speaker 2
21:09
Yeah. Can you go back to the Jolt's Fed data chart? So I guess, so the question for people is, regardless of what your feelings or political leanings or any of that is like, based on the data, not what you think is going to happen, we're actually seeing and yes, I know all these are continually adjusted down and a bit fake and dumb and I get it okay but the question is is this enough of a turn for the Fed to not only say we're not going to continue hiking but we're going to hold here this is probably it. The market certainly thinks the Fed is done here.
Speaker 2
21:53
Now post Jackson Hole they thought we were going to get another hike but then the jobs number came in soft and now the market's suggesting we're not going to keep hiking. But if you look at DXY, now DXY says, hey, we're probably going up. Right? Now, you could also argue that DXY is strengthening because all the emerging markets are basically on a race to the bottom.
Speaker 2
22:20
But I don't know. I think we are going to see inflation creep up again. And the Fed's going to have to decide what's more important here, unemployment or inflation.
Speaker 4
22:31
And I don't know. I don't know.
Speaker 3
22:34
I tend to think the Fed is done for a little while.
Speaker 2
22:38
I think everybody hopes so.
Speaker 3
22:39
I think the cracks in the economy are already there. I think this is a bunch of lagging data, and things are a little harder than presented by some of the information that's out there. Did you see the average car loan interest rate is now 9 and a half percent?
Speaker 2
22:57
Yeah, everything is so high that it's halted.
Speaker 3
23:02
Activity?
Speaker 2
23:03
The markets, period. Like housing, obviously.
Speaker 3
23:05
Well, why would you move if you have like a 3% interest rate?
Speaker 2
23:09
Well you're not.
Speaker 3
23:11
I know but you would double your mortgage if you bought the same house with a 7.5% rate. You're basically doubling your mortgage.
Speaker 2
23:20
Right. Again, I think this is somewhat of a political thing where it's like people are so focused on people moving. I'm focused on the people who don't have a house. Like who cares about whether you can move?
Speaker 2
23:30
At least you have a mortgage at 3%, right? Or 2%, whatever it is. Whereas on the other side of the spectrum, if mortgages are at 7% and prices don't come down, housing affordability is for most people just completely unobtainable.
Speaker 3
23:48
Bradley brings up a good point about the 9, 9 and a half percent rates too, is it's 9 and a half percent on all time high car prices.
Speaker 2
23:57
Right. It's the same thing with housing, right? Same thing.
Speaker 3
23:59
Yeah. Yeah. The housing prices are not really coming down that much.
Speaker 4
24:03
No.
Speaker 3
24:05
I think that could be 1 of the interesting things. If rates get nuked and housing prices get nuked, because they'd be like falling together some capacity, I don't know which 1 goes first. The people that are buying right now with
Speaker 1
24:21
7.5%
Speaker 3
24:22
at high prices. Sean O'Toole
Speaker 2
24:23
Well, yeah, that's the other thing. They'd be underwater, right? Brian
Speaker 4
24:26
Kardell Oh,
Speaker 3
24:26
yeah, massively. And they could refinance, they would have to refinance, but they would be still holding on to a very expensive asset at a bare minimum.
Speaker 2
24:39
Yeah, I think we can agree that it's not a great picture.
Speaker 3
24:44
Sean says Not a time to be a real estate agent. The transaction velocity is down enormously.
Speaker 2
24:52
Here's the thing though, if you've got cash, if you're wealthier, right, you're getting sick yield. What do you care, right? Let the economy explode.
Speaker 3
25:01
Yeah, well that's what most of the transactions are, is cash based.
Speaker 2
25:08
Yeah, money markets, all time high. Yield all time high. Not all time high, but we'll call it multi-decade highs.
Speaker 2
25:19
Yeah, 3 month yield, 2 year yield, it's all good right now, right? And yeah, but the whole China situation is just the US, everywhere else is just crumbling even quicker. China can't really stimulate because they don't want to weaken their currency more. So they're even more boned than we are over here.
Speaker 2
25:38
Certainly, they've got real estate exploding. They've got unemployment in the youth sector out of control.
Speaker 3
25:48
But that's all deflationary for China.
Speaker 2
25:53
Yes, but the economy is still in trouble. Like what are they going to do? They can't, if they stimulate, they weaken their currency even more.
Speaker 5
26:02
I don't know. I don't know
Speaker 2
26:04
how everybody's going to get out of this. Yeah, 30-year
Speaker 4
26:13
yields. I mean,
Speaker 2
26:14
they have to go higher, right?
Speaker 3
26:16
I mean, based on the chart.
Speaker 2
26:18
Other chart I didn't pull, but it's a favorite of the Doomers. The favorite Doomer chart is who's buying the government bonds. If China's selling, if Saudis are selling, who's going to buy them?
Speaker 2
26:30
That's the favorite of the Doomer chart.
Speaker 3
26:32
Yeah. Well, chart says higher for longer.
Speaker 2
26:36
Yeah, I think the market's finally starting to take that seriously and just the moment when they take it seriously, we're going to have some massive macro explosion. Right. Everything's going to just implode at once.
Speaker 3
26:46
You know what real estate people are saying with all the transactions down and whatnot, they're saying survive till
Speaker 1
26:51
25,
Speaker 3
26:52
which I always love when people put a target on their hopium. It's like that's the 1 thing I basically expect to not happen. Whatever your target is for when you think things will be better, it'll take longer.
Speaker 3
27:06
It just wouldn't surprise me if all this takes longer to play out. Even if we don't go like super, super doomer, right? Just keep that standstill of activity for longer, depress volatility. It would create that would create pain as well.
Speaker 2
27:25
Oh, for sure. You know, we're still in you know, the rack, the medieval torture device.
Speaker 4
27:32
Yeah,
Speaker 2
27:32
they'd hold you they turn the screws or whatever, right? We're still in the rack. We just haven't kept turning the screws like we're still in the torture device.
Speaker 3
27:40
And that's what we should expect. 12 says isn't that exactly what crypto people do every 4 years, though? And the answer is yes.
Speaker 3
27:46
And what's hilarious is that it's worked so well with the dominance of halvings. That inherent pressure of Bitcoin has had a big impact on market cycles. And I have basically the same feeling like what if not this time? What if and you need a lot of people honestly to think that in order to do it?
Speaker 3
28:07
Anyway, like they need to think that's not happening. It's not gonna work this time The happening is not gonna work the cyclical nature of crypto is not gonna work in order for it to work What I worry about is a lot of people, like a lot of people are basically saying, oh, we'll be fine. 4 year cycle. No problem.
Speaker 2
28:24
Well, we haven't seen the pain come back yet. I think everybody, like it's been a good year if you've been holding Bitcoin or GBTC, east to a lesser degree, but...
Speaker 3
28:38
It's been an okay year.
Speaker 1
28:41
80%?
Speaker 2
28:42
How is that not a good year? Like, we've gone from 80 to 50 year to date. That's pretty good.
Speaker 2
28:52
That's pretty good. Back to somebody in the comments, Utoya is saying, shouldn't Biden, or not shouldn't, but won't Biden try to do everything to prevent a recession. I mean, you're gonna see the craziest conspiracy theories. I'm already seeing it, by the way, you know, what with this new Coronavirus thing, we're gonna lock down again, we're gonna, We're gonna stimulate, we're gonna cancel the election, we're gonna do all this stuff.
Speaker 2
29:21
2024 is going to be absolutely wild.
Speaker 3
29:25
I don't even know what's going on. I mean, people are pressing pause on Mitch McConnell's brain halfway through speeches.
Speaker 2
29:30
Oh, there's that too.
Speaker 3
29:31
Like, they're all so old. Just get them out of there.
Speaker 2
29:34
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 3
29:36
And Biden included, for what it's worth.
Speaker 2
29:38
Oh, 100%. Why were you even thinking about voting for somebody who's
Speaker 1
29:41
80?
Speaker 3
29:41
He should have gone into his presidency as like, I'm going to create stability after a psychopath, and I'm going to run for 1 term, and like opened it up for other people. Trump didn't do that either obviously he's he's running from the sidelines not even gracing the stage.
Speaker 2
30:00
There was 1 point by the way early in the the primary season where Biden said that he was only going to do 1 term. That obviously changed.
Speaker 3
30:09
Yeah. Yeah, they're going to, you know, weekend at Bernie's all these guys for the next 4 years. I mean that lady like yelling into McConnell's ear, did you hear that? They asked about re-election.
Speaker 4
30:29
Yeah, it's just sad.
Speaker 3
30:31
It's so sad. I don't even want to laugh at it, but it's kind of funny, but it's terribly sad.
Speaker 2
30:39
I don't know why we put up with that, but...
Speaker 3
30:41
We shouldn't.
Speaker 2
30:42
I agree.
Speaker 5
30:43
Term limits.
Speaker 2
30:44
I agree.
Speaker 3
30:45
There can't be anything more bipartisan than term limits.
Speaker 2
30:49
You'd think, but here we are. It's hard to tell somebody that there's a ceiling on their power, you know? It's hard for them to vote for that.
Speaker 3
30:59
Bias Frog asked, what is bullish about this chart? And my answer would be nothing. This is not a bullish chart.
Speaker 2
31:07
I don't know, maybe I'm just a glass half full person, but up 80% a year. I'll take it.
Speaker 3
31:14
Yeah, like I said, I'm not saying it means new lows now, but it doesn't look like all-time highs imminent either, like relative to the S&P or other things. Like crypto just doesn't look good.
Speaker 4
31:30
I am
Speaker 3
31:30
bullish on the fundamentals.
Speaker 2
31:33
Yeah, I'd agree. Look, we don't have flows. We don't have, we have banking problems.
Speaker 2
31:40
We have like very basic fundamental, how do we pay for this thing situation? And the biggest proponents are retail and they're being squeezed by inflation and wages. So
Speaker 3
31:51
Yeah, and this can turn it can turn I'm fundamentally bullish on it being able to turn
Speaker 2
31:59
He's almost below 16 here, by the way, I'm looking at it It is breaking down from that diagonal support like retested.
Speaker 3
32:11
I'm on a monthly chart. Same thing on the weekly. Weekly 200.
Speaker 3
32:17
Yeah we need to fix this it's Friday probably won't. Doesn't look good man. Still does kind of have the 2015 Bitcoin fractal though.
Speaker 2
32:33
I don't know that just looks like death to me.
Speaker 3
32:38
You think?
Speaker 2
32:39
Look at that, that's a perfect personification of this entire conversation. DXY plus everything else red. Yeah.
Speaker 2
32:48
That's just it.
Speaker 3
32:49
I'd rather own this and owning that is just having dollars
Speaker 2
32:53
that bounce is insane the bounce on oil is insane this week it's just it's not good news if we're bullish crypto it's just not
Speaker 3
33:06
I'm being asked about lumber I don't know what lumber is doing. I can't remember where that is on my watch lists.
Speaker 2
33:15
But so the next Fed meeting is in isn't until the end of the month the 20th We've got a CPI print on the 13th Which we very well know is gonna come in hot Probably around 3.8 percent It's gonna be tough, I don't know.
Speaker 3
33:38
We got asked a question earlier. We'll look at 2 of these markets. All right, let's look at lumber futures.
Speaker 3
33:48
They don't look so good. I don't know what product I'm looking at. So sorry. That doesn't look that good.
Speaker 3
33:53
And we also got asked about the uranium, the uranium market. I'm gonna go to
Speaker 2
34:02
quad you I think is what people look at a lot. I don't know what the actual uranium is.
Speaker 3
34:07
This is like the spot physical uranium.
Speaker 2
34:09
Okay.
Speaker 3
34:11
Yeah, and it looks awesome.
Speaker 2
34:13
Looks good. Looks like the 30 year honestly.
Speaker 3
34:16
Looks like a breakout.
Speaker 2
34:18
Looks like Costco. Pull up that chart. You know what else?
Speaker 2
34:21
You know what hit all time highs this week? Visa, MasterCard and Walmart.
Speaker 3
34:27
Yeah, look at that. Look at that consolidation. It's like picture perfect triangle.
Speaker 2
34:39
I don't know anything that looks good here in crypto, honestly.
Speaker 3
34:44
Oh, Bias Frog brought up another Josh chart, which is seasonality.
Speaker 2
34:53
Oh, yeah. It's September, right? I don't think people should be surprised.
Speaker 2
35:01
Click on the right average monthly for Bitcoin and ETH.
Speaker 3
35:07
Bad month. Historically,
Speaker 2
35:10
September is the worst month. So You know, I wouldn't expect any massive surprises here.
Speaker 3
35:19
HODL till Halloween.
Speaker 2
35:22
That's the reason why Q4 historically has been so good. Part of it is September has always been terrible. And that's what you want to see, right?
Speaker 2
35:32
If you want to have a shot at a decent Q4, let Q3 just explode completely.
Speaker 3
35:37
So is September terrible because people come back from their summer vacations and press the sell button?
Speaker 2
35:42
I don't know. A lot of people have asked
Speaker 6
35:43
me that. I don't know
Speaker 2
35:44
why, Even in the legacy markets, if you look at the other chart, if you click the left arrow, yeah, NASDAQ and S&P also September is the worst month historically. That's not just a decade, that's like 100 years almost on the S&P.
Speaker 3
36:00
That's crazy.
Speaker 2
36:02
So yeah, I don't know why that is At some point it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, right people are expecting September to be bad So they get out of the market they de-risk
Speaker 4
36:13
Yeah, I don't know I don't know why that is though I
Speaker 3
36:17
Mean either it's great month weather-wise
Speaker 2
36:22
And plus look you could get 3 month yields at what, 5 percent. Which,
Speaker 3
36:29
yeah, Yeah, when you can when you're just getting taught, you know handed 5% on these strong dollars Hard to deny that Josh hard to deny 5% on strong dollars. I
Speaker 2
36:41
Agree and that's another headwind right because There's more reasons not to be in crypto.
Speaker 4
36:48
I
Speaker 5
36:51
think that's all I
Speaker 2
36:51
had on price stuff.
Speaker 3
36:53
I don't know what else. 1 more that I was gonna show is that despite rates doing what they're doing, Gold has not gone up, but it has not gone down either. It's hovering here Should rates decrease do you expect gold to make its move?
Speaker 2
37:13
I have no idea. I don't know enough about gold historically what it does in recessionary conditions
Speaker 3
37:20
Also, it could be like another year or 2 before you're right about it but yeah I still like this chart.
Speaker 2
37:27
Is there a sadder person than a gold buyer? Yeah I don't know.
Speaker 3
37:32
An NFT top buyer.
Speaker 2
37:37
Yeah, I don't know anything about gold. So, I'm the wrong person to ask, but I agree the chart looks good. Silver, the same by the way.
Speaker 2
37:44
Silver looks good.
Speaker 3
37:46
Yeah, but it's oil that's actually breaking out. Oil punished a lot of people though over the beginning of the year or
Speaker 1
37:54
2022.
Speaker 2
37:57
I mean oil, it's a cartel that controls the price. So You got to keep that in mind
Speaker 3
38:02
That makes it bullish, right?
Speaker 2
38:05
Well, if it gets too high Supply gets released if it gets too low they tighten supply so
Speaker 3
38:13
range-bound forever
Speaker 2
38:14
It's part of
Speaker 3
38:15
it The two-year still looks like it could come down. Like it looks relatively weak, but the
Speaker 1
38:21
10
Speaker 3
38:22
and a 30 year both look like they want to go up some more. I hate that we have to look at this. Why can't we just enjoy our coins?
Speaker 2
38:31
I agree. Unfortunately we've gotten big enough at this point where we can't just ignore the macro stuff. EBTC makes another lower high.
Speaker 2
38:42
How about that?
Speaker 3
38:43
Does it though?
Speaker 2
38:44
You hate to see it.
Speaker 3
38:45
I mean,
Speaker 2
38:46
what do you mean? It's below 0.07. That's a lower high.
Speaker 3
38:49
I can't even see the last 2 months of pricing here. Like they're all squeezed in this little range. You're calling this the lower high, right?
Speaker 4
39:00
Yeah.
Speaker 3
39:00
Sure. I don't call it. It's still within the range. Do I have any pictures on this?
Speaker 3
39:07
I was wrong. I wasn't wrong.
Speaker 2
39:09
Quick delete that.
Speaker 3
39:10
I was just early.
Speaker 2
39:11
Move it down.
Speaker 3
39:15
Just push my squiggles to the right Yeah Surely because of all this stuff we'll just have all season right?
Speaker 2
39:27
No, it's not the time for all season. I don't even think buying all tears None of them. So every Wednesday, I look at it all it's on my youtube channel.
Speaker 2
39:37
Shout out YouTube channel
Speaker 3
39:39
carpe noctum on YouTube
Speaker 2
39:41
and My conclusion over the past 4 weeks basically, it's been nothing looks bad enough to buy so everything looks terrible
Speaker 6
39:49
but nothing looks bad enough to buy.
Speaker 3
39:53
Updated price prediction.
Speaker 2
40:00
On the USD chart I have it up. Breaking that DAG is real bad. Especially, so you consolidate for almost 2 years.
Speaker 2
40:12
Well, let's say a year. Okay, I'll be generous. Less than generous. A year of consolidation, no volume, Doesn't break out Just you hate to see it at the end of the day the entire market is based around The Bitcoin having
Speaker 3
40:30
what kind of diagonal if you John there
Speaker 2
40:33
Doesn't matter.
Speaker 3
40:34
Yes, I reject the premise.
Speaker 6
40:36
Oh God.
Speaker 3
40:38
I'm going to show you a diagonal.
Speaker 2
40:39
I do. Here's a diagonal. There's another 1.
Speaker 2
40:43
How much further do you
Speaker 4
40:43
want to go down?
Speaker 3
40:43
Yeah, it's not broken.
Speaker 2
40:44
Look at this.
Speaker 3
40:45
I'll just drew you 1.
Speaker 2
40:46
Just make it up numbers.
Speaker 4
40:47
Not broken.
Speaker 3
40:47
The yellow thing. Not broken.
Speaker 2
40:50
I'm going to make it...
Speaker 4
40:50
It's an
Speaker 2
40:50
extreme Pico wick.
Speaker 4
40:51
I'm going to make it
Speaker 3
40:53
solid, 4 pixels, heavy support.
Speaker 2
40:57
That's your line in the sand? We will not cross
Speaker 1
41:02
1540
Speaker 2
41:03
or whatever that is.
Speaker 3
41:04
Yeah.
Speaker 2
41:05
Look, if we make lower lows beyond the previous 2 weeks, I mean, that's the nail in the coffin right there. Yeah. And everybody's asking about Solana.
Speaker 2
41:18
I won't say everybody. I'll say 3 people have asked about Solana.
Speaker 3
41:21
Just Anatoly in your DMs is asking about Solana. Look, I just made the yellow box bigger.
Speaker 2
41:30
Sure. Look, until it's above 2000, it's been, it's an ignore. I've said that for months. Yeah, there's nothing else to say.
Speaker 2
41:39
You can give me all the fundamental reasons why ETH is bullish, but sorry, You don't see it on the chart. And Solana, you know times a thousand to that logic Solana's got massive overhead supply from FTX to be sold still so I Wouldn't get excited until that Solana pile gets sold off.
Speaker 3
42:04
I'll give you
Speaker 1
42:04
$3.
Speaker 2
42:07
Yeah, sure.
Speaker 3
42:07
Per Solana. Maybe 4. And I think Solana's actually got a lot of good community stuff going on.
Speaker 3
42:18
I'm interested at Solana at prices I previously was not interested, which I would say is like somewhere close to the previous lows. Sub 10, sub
Speaker 1
42:31
12, 10, 12.
Speaker 3
42:32
If it got dumped really hard, I'd be interested to buy it. I don't know if I could actually wait for sub $5 Solana before I got interested
Speaker 2
42:42
Sub 10 before I start to think about it seriously for me someone's asking how much Solano does FTF TX hold as of a few months ago they held
Speaker 1
42:55
685
Speaker 2
42:56
million Notional, I don't know how many tokens coins. No USD dollars. Yeah It's okay.
Speaker 2
43:05
It's not that much, right? But it's it ain't 0.
Speaker 3
43:09
They hold a lot.
Speaker 2
43:11
So I don't know where we were in the price cycle for that. It's like, you know, timestamped, but you can't say like you're worried about the GOX coins, for example, and ignore stuff like FTX, where we still don't know how they're going to distribute all that. Latest I heard was they were gonna sell it and galaxy was gonna be the ones to do that OTC So
Speaker 3
43:35
shoot they're talking about trying to hedge out their exposure to some stuff, which I doubt very many of the Debtors or whatever the people they owe money to would really like that. They're like, we don't want to guarantee like 10 cents on the dollar. At least let it go up.
Speaker 3
43:52
And maybe we have a chance of getting 50 or 60 or 70 cents on the dollar if their assets do well.
Speaker 2
44:00
I just can't believe GOX still hasn't been resolved.
Speaker 3
44:02
I don't understand what they're doing.
Speaker 2
44:05
I don't either. What's taking so long?
Speaker 3
44:07
Also this FTX bankruptcy group is, they're charging like a million dollars a day or something stupid.
Speaker 4
44:14
Yep.
Speaker 3
44:15
And they're just eating into all the funds. I don't understand how that's legal.
Speaker 2
44:19
I agree. Same thing with Barry. Barry, his whole motive is keep that sucker closed as long as you can, bleed that sucker dry.
Speaker 2
44:28
Same rationale with GBTC. They don't want an ETF. They don't want competition. Keep that closed.
Speaker 2
44:39
Crypto. It's almost like we
Speaker 3
44:40
have some bad actors in crypto.
Speaker 2
44:43
It's just you go out, you say 1 thing, you try to make it look like you're doing the right thing. It's just not how it plays out. So we're talking about drive chains real quick.
Speaker 3
44:54
Yeah. Cause I still don't know what you mean.
Speaker 2
44:56
All right. So in like
Speaker 1
44:58
2013, 2014, 2015,
Speaker 2
45:01
I don't know. It's been a long time. Okay, this is part of the problem It's been a long time this will call him a Bitcoin thinker.
Speaker 2
45:09
He's kind of a dev Paul storch scorch Scorch butcher his last name
Speaker 3
45:15
Tell me what I say. Is not Paul Scorch.
Speaker 2
45:19
It's like S-T-O-R-C-Z or something. S-Z-T-O-R-C-Z. Anyway, he had this idea of bringing altcoins to Bitcoin by creating drive chains, which would just be side chains with a bridge basically.
Speaker 2
45:34
And again altcoin people are like what are you talking about we've had this since 1985 what do we care. Yeah. So over the past I don't know a week, 10 days because the wheels have been put in motion on the development front through Luke Dash Jr., who got paid to do that, by the way, which is a whole other can of worms, on whether or not we want this on the protocol. So there are tons of reasons for and against it.
Speaker 2
46:10
And if you think about the Ordinal debate, it's very much like the Ordinal debate where the hard money people want nothing to do with it. And the other altcoin people are like, well, you know, here's what it boils down to for me is like, look, if you're going to drink, I want you to drink in my basement, right? Or whatever that saying is, right? If you're like an underage drinker or promoting safe drinking to underage individuals, right?
Speaker 2
46:35
That's a common thing people say is, if you're going to drink, I want you to do it in my house. That's basically what drive chains are. This idea that all coins are going to exist no matter what we do. We've pushed people away off of the Bitcoin network because they can't do it on Bitcoin.
Speaker 3
46:53
If you want to compute, compute on Bitcoin layer
Speaker 1
46:57
2.
Speaker 2
46:58
Right. And The other part of it is the Bitcoin security model is broken. We will never have transaction fees enough to the point where we have security in the year 2160, whatever.
Speaker 3
47:15
I'm on team drive chains.
Speaker 2
47:16
Yeah, of course you are. We know that. I didn't even have to think about it.
Speaker 2
47:26
That's another part of the argument, like it's a soft fork. It's opt in if you don't want it. You don't have to touch it. Much like again, much like ordinals, right?
Speaker 2
47:35
I just don't like this attitude of we're going to enable all this stuff and if shit happens, right? Like who cares if people want to lose money to scams, if miners want to rug people, who cares?
Speaker 3
47:48
You're acting like there's nothing else a blockchain can do.
Speaker 2
47:52
Right.
Speaker 3
47:53
Versus you could say, well, here's Bitcoin security as a service. 1 beautiful thing that Bitcoin has is security as a service.
Speaker 2
48:02
So let it be hired out. Ordinals are not a soft fork, but I'm saying the debate is very similar.
Speaker 3
48:10
Let it be put out there to be security for anything.
Speaker 2
48:17
Well, here's the problem. We've got 10 different versions of this already that nobody gives a fuck about, okay? Nobody uses this shit.
Speaker 2
48:24
Look at FriendTech, I sent you that link as well. FriendTech is a great example of what drive chains, the true vision in my mind for drive chains could be, right? They came and went. Nobody cares.
Speaker 3
48:38
Well, frintext, it's not even on base. This is
Speaker 2
48:42
an example of something you could do on a drive chain, right?
Speaker 3
48:46
Sure.
Speaker 4
48:46
The
Speaker 2
48:46
whole promise is we're going to have all these drive chains and generate all these fees. It's going to be amazing. It's going to be this utopia.
Speaker 2
48:53
Look at ordinals too. I don't know if I sent you that link. People are still using ordinals, but the fees are 0. So now we've got all this blockchain baggage with no upside.
Speaker 2
49:04
So like, what are we doing? Now, the drive chain is a bit like...
Speaker 3
49:07
Josh, you're just like preaching against any form of attempt, like decentralization attempt in consumer applications, which against me, you will not convince me.
Speaker 4
49:17
It would
Speaker 2
49:17
be the opposite. What? The drive chain people, their whole thing is like, we're just gonna let this happen.
Speaker 2
49:25
Like what whatever happens after that is, we don't care. We're just going to hand wave all the risks. We don't know about the unknown unknowns. Nobody can, whatever.
Speaker 2
49:36
My thing is like, look, we have to plan for that. If we're not planning for problems, then we're making mistakes. If the risk is not worth the reward. Your argument is the reward is infinite possibilities, right?
Speaker 3
49:53
Yeah, when you can compute on using the security of a blockchain and create decentralized applications, decentralized participation, custody, whatever else, you unlock the potential for privacy enhancing solutions of various kinds where you're transitioning the risk away from corporate and into code. And I think that is a good thing.
Speaker 2
50:31
Okay. I have a whole presentation I put together. I haven't recorded the video yet, but I'm going to do that today when we're done with this.
Speaker 3
50:40
I would like to have more applications where I can have underlying security from ETH and Bitcoin blockchains than on corporate entities for stuff in my life. It's obviously a ton to work out. It's kind of wild, wild west.
Speaker 3
50:59
That's why we have all these scams and crazy things. But I think what you're saying is kind of like the equivalent of like, well, I don't like the Western Americas because there's cowboys out there, and they'll steal your money and the bank is not secure. So we shouldn't explore the west, we should stay east of the Mississippi.
Speaker 2
51:17
Okay, man. Now, I think the argument is like, we know what happens. We know what happens.
Speaker 2
51:22
Ponzi's happen. Scams happen, rugs happen. That's gonna happen. Somebody in 1 of the Twitter spaces is like, okay, we're gonna build a bridge.
Speaker 2
51:31
But on the other side of that bridge we know there's a bomb there's 100 guaranteed going to be a bomb there his argument was we shouldn't build a bridge someone else like you is arguing does that mean we just shouldn't ever build bridges right
Speaker 3
51:45
I don't think I reject the premise of the question of that. We know there's a bomb there
Speaker 2
51:50
We know that there is going to be a bomb. We I
Speaker 3
51:53
would say Here's we're not gonna build a road because there are people on that road who will mug you
Speaker 2
52:03
Okay
Speaker 3
52:06
There's always dangers to the road. People will die on highways. People will die exploring, but you also achieve so much.
Speaker 3
52:14
Because you enable that infrastructure.
Speaker 2
52:17
Yeah, look, I understand the other side of the argument. I just, the way it plays out is very different than this idealized innovation.
Speaker 3
52:27
So I'm not idealizing it. I'm saying it's gonna be there's gonna be some nastiness along the way. Always has been.
Speaker 3
52:34
Even Bitcoin, you can't accept like, Bitcoin got cloned a hundred thousand times.
Speaker 2
52:39
Right.
Speaker 3
52:40
So, we should have never Bitcoined because we had got Feathercoin and That means we shouldn't have done that. People speculated on Feathercoin because, you know, Hal Finney got excited and created this thing. Presumably.
Speaker 3
52:54
I'm making that up. But Satoshi. Satoshi. So let's roll it back.
Speaker 3
52:59
Roll it back. Never do this whole Bitcoin thing because look at all these scams these people came up with
Speaker 2
53:06
We've had colored coins. We've had Omni. We've had counterparty.
Speaker 2
53:08
We've had rootstock liquid taro The RC 20 we've had all of it.
Speaker 3
53:13
This is an irrational fear of progress
Speaker 2
53:16
We've thought we we've We've made progress. We've tried innovation and nobody's wanted it. It exists.
Speaker 2
53:23
It exists today. Look at BASE. Why are people aping into BASE? Because they think they can make money because there's Ponzi-nomics involved, right?
Speaker 2
53:32
That's it. You said it yourself an episode or 2 ago.
Speaker 3
53:36
It's a short-term justification.
Speaker 2
53:39
Right. And after that, nobody cares. It's a flash in the pan.
Speaker 3
53:43
I don't think that's true.
Speaker 4
53:45
Okay.
Speaker 3
53:47
I care about layer twos on ETH because I think that good layer twos that adopt the security model of layer 1 offer the features of that you get out of layer 1 security with better speed and you might actually be able to put consumer apps on them without having to rely on all of the restrictions of what consumer apps historically force you to do.
Speaker 2
54:19
Yeah, that's fair. I
Speaker 3
54:22
think it's amazing that you're so bearish on all this because I think it's so beneficial for your bags.
Speaker 2
54:28
Well, I'm bearish on the inevitability of some sort of regulatory attack. Let's build some Who
Speaker 3
54:33
cares?
Speaker 2
54:34
Yeehaw-ty privacy coin with child porn that has giga meg blocks, right? Like that's gonna happen. And are we supposed to just say, okay.
Speaker 2
54:41
You
Speaker 3
54:41
just wanna send and receive. You don't even wanna send and receive your Bitcoins. You just wanna stick your Bitcoins on some words, on some paper.
Speaker 2
54:49
In the ground. Yeah,
Speaker 3
54:51
put it in a safe never touch it That's so boring
Speaker 4
54:56
Yeah, well, I don't
Speaker 2
54:58
it's it's not for me. It's not for a lot of people. So exactly 12 Asians talking about tornado cash.
Speaker 2
55:04
I mean, just because the government does something doesn't mean it's correct, but we have to look at what's happening and like read the room. Okay.
Speaker 5
55:14
I don't know.
Speaker 3
55:15
But there is both wrong and right that can occur on technological innovation. And there's that which the government accepts and that which the government does not accept.
Speaker 2
55:27
But neither says that innovation is bad. We can't ignore the risks. Of course, there's
Speaker 3
55:32
always risks.
Speaker 2
55:36
And just say, let's do it. Fuck it. Who cares?
Speaker 2
55:36
Right?
Speaker 4
55:38
I'm gonna
Speaker 3
55:38
put my gold in my mattress.
Speaker 2
55:44
You know Wolf, Again, this is another point people bring up. He's saying, why would you build anything on Bitcoin when we've got ETH basically? And that's the point that Luke Jr.
Speaker 2
55:53
Brought up where the shit corners left, like they're long gone, right? So why are we trying to enable shit coins on Bitcoin? Nobody cares. Again, we've done it over and over and over again.
Speaker 2
56:06
Nobody's cared. Tether just ended support for Omni the other day. Tron has won that battle. The best way to send tethers on Tron because you can do it for free basically.
Speaker 2
56:22
And who cares if it's a centralized ecosystem? How much people use tether?
Speaker 3
56:26
I'm personally pretty bullish on high security layer ones and high transaction throughput on layer twos that build themselves using a foundation of the high security layer ones. I'm pretty bearish on low security layer ones.
Speaker 2
56:44
Sounds like you're Mr. DriveChain. Yeah, so there's a bunch of pros and cons.
Speaker 2
56:53
I understand the pro argument. I do not understand this hand waving of the risk of enabling it. I don't get it.
Speaker 3
57:02
All right.
Speaker 4
57:03
We
Speaker 2
57:03
talk about BNB real quick.
Speaker 3
57:05
Yeah.
Speaker 4
57:06
Can you
Speaker 2
57:06
just pull up that chart? Because I don't have it up.
Speaker 3
57:10
My looking up the price on Binance or do I need to look at a different
Speaker 2
57:15
Binance is fine.
Speaker 3
57:16
Okay, and decoupled yet. Ooh
Speaker 2
57:23
Doesn't look
Speaker 3
57:23
good, but it's holding up so far
Speaker 2
57:29
Yeah, I mean 210 to 12 It makes lows. We'll see what happens. There's some argument that Binance has to explode before it can go up.
Speaker 2
57:37
CZ needs to be taken into custody by the US. I don't know what this conspiracy theory stuff is, but.
Speaker 4
57:45
If you
Speaker 3
57:45
could just stop tweeting for that would be helpful.
Speaker 2
57:50
Yeah, it doesn't look good for that chart for sure. Just based on a technical level.
Speaker 3
57:55
This looks like your old drafts.
Speaker 2
57:57
It looks like it's going down. That's what it looks like. It does.
Speaker 2
58:02
You know, are they selling BTC to support the BNB price? All
Speaker 3
58:06
right, this is a monthly chart. This price really only just went up in February, 2021. That was all of the markup.
Speaker 3
58:13
Just retrace that.
Speaker 4
58:15
Let's get
Speaker 3
58:15
rid of this candle right here. Act like it doesn't exist.
Speaker 2
58:18
I wouldn't be long, BNB. I wouldn't have any coins on Binance. I wouldn't have any coins on Binance US.
Speaker 2
58:22
I wouldn't have anything in Binance Smart Chain.
Speaker 3
58:25
We agree on something, Josh.
Speaker 2
58:26
I just don't know what else to tell people.
Speaker 4
58:28
I
Speaker 3
58:28
agree with all of that.
Speaker 2
58:29
If you lose any money to Binance, and you're still there, I don't know what to tell you. I'm just not sympathetic. Sorry.
Speaker 3
58:36
Yeah, I agree with that. Although I would also personally guess that their financial situation is not of the same highly fraudulent sort that FTX's is, but I think their regulatory situation is very bad.
Speaker 2
58:52
Yeah, no, I agree. This isn't an FTX, it's
Speaker 4
58:54
different. It's a
Speaker 3
58:55
Binance. It's
Speaker 2
58:57
a 4.
Speaker 3
58:58
It's a 4. Yeah, all right, well,
Speaker 4
59:02
let's look
Speaker 3
59:02
at that.
Speaker 2
59:04
TryChance forever, shitcoins forever, and Here's the innovation.
Speaker 3
59:10
It is spoken. Thanks for joining us y'all. We appreciate you listening to us argue.
Speaker 3
59:18
Like, subscribe, follow Josh at Carpe Noctem on YouTube and Twitter. Catch you later.
Speaker 2
59:30
The easy river has just run dry. In a house of cards, I fear the breeze. Wound so tight, I can barely breathe.
Speaker 2
59:53
Oh, the chains.
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