Welcome to Life of Cast, my name is Brian Krogsgaard here.

Josh Olsewicz, like always, and he's laughing at me.

Oh, I just I wasn't sure you were going to get the name right.

I thought it was going to be a botch job, you know.

I'm like, I've heard you say it so many times that I was like, oh, what is he going to say?

But I've been preoccupied with drive chains, drama.

We'll talk about it later on in the show.

But I've been so preoccupied with that over the past couple days, like I haven't really cared about price.

That's the good thing about a governance debate.

Like you can get down to like the core and the fundamentals of why any of us are here in the first place.

And I don't know, it's interesting, but we'll start off with price and macro, I guess.

I mean, the altcoin people are gonna be like, whatever, who cares?

We can already do this on our chain no 1 doesn't matter guys like you're you basically the altcoin people are gonna say you're arguing over something that we've had for years like who cares we don't we don't care we already have a what we can do elsewhere anyway

Let's talk about price that first though.

So I'm gonna just you know, put Bitcoin on here.

Couple things that I noticed right away Josh after we had the SEC get the smackdown, losing a GBTC ruling.

We didn't want to root for Ripple, but you had to.

end of the day, you had to root for GBTC, even though Barry is Barry and Grayscale is Grayscale and the product is flawed and the fees are insane and it's a hostage situation.

The market whispers like the Bloomberg type of people that follow ETFs changed their likelihood of a spot ETF to 75% for

And there was a chance that they thought that they might just approve them right out of the gate because it was enough of a smack down from this whatever court, circuit court, I think, whatever.

Well if you're a bully and you get punched in the face, I don't think you just turn around and forgive.

Forgive whatever's going on or change your mind, you know, and that's.

Realistically probably means also an ETH 1, sometime in the year or 2 to follow.

And let me tell you why this is good news for something that isn't Bitcoin.

The market liked it for a day and then retraced it fully.

If you look at the weekly chart, couple of things to note, 200 week, which it pierced right into, now getting rejected off of.

Well, partially it was rejected because all of the pending ETF applications got delayed.

The 20 week, the 200 week, the 50 day, the 200 day, death cross, radiation, devastation, it's over.

That's what moving average analysis would tell you.

Moving average analysis would tell you, and I'm not belittling moving average analysis because I follow them, I use them.

And I'm looking at this and it's telling me to sell.

I don't know if it's telling you to sell so much as it's telling you things are not strong, we are weak, we have no upwards momentum.

I would not expect prices to go up anytime super soon.

That's what I think it's telling me anyway.

Regulations haven't really changed too much.

Rates in the macro picture I don't think looks good.

We had a gust of a tailwind when Gensler got smacked down by the courts.

It's what's just down to like 43 or whatever now.

Or they could try to appeal this or do whatever they want.

They could deny ETFs for a million reasons.

Worst case scenario is they pull all of the futures ETFs, which is an option.

If the judge's rationale was, which is I think we all agree is correct, that you can't just arbitrarily deny an ETF based on the same criteria that another ETF has approved, you know, the futures ETFs.

So theoretically, the SEC could turn around and just revoke all of the futures ETFs.

But anyway, I think it was rightly celebrated as a great result for crypto, for Bitcoin.

You know, it's not the whole kit and caboodle.

We also have a really nice chart response.

Okay, Zoom in on them and I'll let your charts be visible.

Daily and weekly both look quite good to me.

The beginning of 2021, when we were talking about for weeks that there was going to be this inverted head and shoulders technical breakout, and then we raised rates by 500 basis points, right?

I don't think we're going to raise rates another 500 basis points, but the technicals for the dollar look phenomenal here.

And what's amazing is that the stock market also looks good.

The stock market is hovering here below all-time highs, bouncing off short-term moving averages.

Strong weeks, maybe a little top-heavy, but top-heavy as in from a breadth perspective.

The biggest companies are performing the best.

But yeah, crypto is just not participating in the fun.

I'd agree with somewhat, but if the news is related to flows, and we don't have inflows, and no 1 wants to touch this thing, it's basically toxic radiation without regulation and regulatory clarity.

Those are where the flows are coming from.

So until we have actual flows, we're just completely drifting based on inverse correlations to the DX live effectively.

Yeah, there's just a lot of other interesting things like the Dixie Dixie looks good stocks look good.

Well, something's got to give here because I don't think we can be bullish everything for an extended period of time.

I don't know why my Mac is lagging, but It's above the daily cloud, continues to hold above the daily clouds.

If this were Bitcoin after a long downtrend, we would be excited.

You know, as you as a true technical objective analyst should treat this Like this is phenomenal.

Max Payne probably is dollar to like 111 plus, right?

The only thing this is telling us is enjoy our trips to third world countries for a while.

Which are gonna be the only places we can afford to live.

So here's what I don't understand, the picture currently.

Monday, Sunday coming into Monday, I was saying, look, there's a head and shoulders here.

We have a bullish TK recross on the 12 hour.

And on oil, you've got this multi, multi month, like Adam and Eve fractal, right?

So I don't understand if energy is bullish.

And that means likely inflation continues to increase.

Because if you look at the SMP and NASDAQ right now, they also look like they have a canceled Head and shoulders.

I don't know why this isn't responding, but

I don't care Anyway, I think I think something's got to give here It the The oil head and shoulders very clearly is invalidated.

The S&P and the NASDAQ head and shoulder patterns still may be intact.

Unless you're in crypto, you're feeling good, feeling right, feeling correct in whatever your take is.

So what this is signaling to me is that rates should go up if inflation stays high.

But then if you look at the jobs market, which if you want to look at those charts, job openings came down this week, Unemployment ticked up slightly this week.

That would be evidence for the Fed to pause here.

Truflation, by the way, hovering just below

The Fed now inflation casting is like at 3.8, which is a massive, I'd argue, a massive increase from the previous month.

So there's a very muddy picture what is going to happen here, but I can't imagine the Fed is going to just lay down if inflation is holding at 3% still.

I don't think inflation is really strong, as strong as the numbers indicate.

Real market is a little more difficult than the charts would indicate.

There's this housing argument in the inflation data, PCE, which is a different type of measurement is still elevated.

Do I think they're going to keep raising?

But if inflation, here's the weird thing, right?

If inflation goes to 3 plus and unemployment is still sub 4, then what do they do?

I think they're in a rock and hard place because everyone seems to think that they're over-tightening and that we're going to completely explode the economy.

I think it's at a place where they should at least wait and see.

I think the rate of change has been too severe.

They're trying to make up for their misgivings months and months ago.

Too many, too many people are employed, they need to stop having such a positive work environment.

I mean, that's the end conclusion, right?

There's this anti-wage, anti-worker sentiment that I just do not understand.

I just I don't under like how do you expect people to live like yes inflation is high.

Look at all the people that are on strike right now.

Like what we're just supposed to tell hundreds of thousands of people that you know, tough luck.

This chart says that the recession can take some time.

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ETF is coming, but market is bearish anyway