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Early on Monday, the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea to Russia was blown up for the second time in the war. So in this video, we explain what's just happened, how this might impact Ukraine's counter offensive and why this is yet more bad news for Putin. 

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1 - https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1680784369860870149?s=20
2 - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jul/17/russia-ukraine-war-live-crimean-bridge-emergency-traffic-stops-explosion?page=with:block-64b4cd408f080a06e3061160&filterKeyEvents=false
3 - https://www.ft.com/content/4efddb55-010e-4e91-92ad-61afd54abd68
4 - https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-0888-4b47-9368-6bc4dfbccbf5
5 - https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/09/ukraines-assault-in-zaporizhia-may-be-the-focus-of-its-offensive
6 - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/9/who-is-surovikin-the-russian-commander-for-the-war-in-ukraine

00:00 Introduction
00:34 What happened on Monday?
03:50 What happens next?
05:24 Why this is bad for Putin
07:51 Nebula

In the early hours of Monday morning, the Kirch Bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia was blown up for the second time in 12 months.

So in this video we're going to take a look at what happened on Monday, how this might affect the war, and why this is really bad news for Putin Before we start if you haven't already please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos.

So let's dive straight into it and take a look at what happened yesterday.

Now the first thing to say is that we're obviously writing this video only a few hours after the events and A lot of this information is yet to be confirmed and often originates from Russian telegram channels.

So, take everything with a pinch of salt.

But at the time of writing, it looks like in the early hours of Monday morning, sometime around 3am, the Kerch Bridge was blown up again.

Now for context, the Kerch Bridge, sometimes known as the Crimean Bridge, is the only major transport bridge between Crimea and mainland Russia.

Now construction began after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the bridge opened in 2018.

Now it gets its name because it runs from the Kirch Peninsula in Crimea to the Taman Peninsula in Russia, making it the longest bridge in Europe and upon its opening it was presented by both Putin and the Kremlin as a symbol of Russian power.

Now, if we're being picky, it's actually really 2 bridges.

There's a four-lane road bridge and a double-track railway running parallel to 1 another.

Now that's important because on Monday, the 4 lane road bridge was blown up somehow.

According to the Wagner affiliated Grayzone Telegram channel, there were 2 explosions, 1 at 3.04 AM and 1 at 3.20.

Now We don't have any videos of the strikes themselves, so we don't know for sure, but it looks like it was either a missile strike or a navy drone attack.

But the latter does seem more likely, for 2 reasons.

Firstly, there's pretty good anti-air defence there, which would have made a missile strike fairly difficult.

And secondly, videos taken from the train bridge that run parallel to the bridge seem to show that the bridge is sagging into the water, which suggests that the base or foundations were attacked.

Regardless though, 2 people were apparently killed in the incident.

And according to Krasnodar health authorities, cited by Russian state media, It looks like traffic over the bridge has been halted indefinitely.

While Kiev hasn't commented on the events and Ukraine's southern military command has actually suggested it might be a false flag attack, it was most likely organized by Ukraine.

This is both because other Ukrainian officials have at least implied that Ukraine was responsible.

In fact, a few hours before the attack, Ukraine's ground forces commander said on Telegram that he was preparing a lullaby for the Russians.

And because this is what happened in October last year when a truck filled with explosives blew up the bridge, causing a fire which then spread to the rail bridge.

Now, when it comes to this previous incident, the Ukrainians did initially deny responsibility.

But not long after, they released a tweet comparing the events on the Crimean bridge to what happened in Moskovo, strongly implying that Ukraine had carried out the bombing.

And a couple of days after that, Ukrainian officials admitted to Western news outlets that they had organised the attack.

Regardless though, the bridge has been blown up again, so what happens next?

Well, strategically, this attack probably won't make much of a difference to the ongoing counter-offensive, at least not in the short term.

While this will put added strain on Russia's logistics operation in the south, the Russians will still be able to supply their troops in Zaporizhia via the railways that run from Russia through the Donetsk Oblast down to Russian occupied Melitopol.

And even if it did significantly strain Russia's logistics here, the main obstacles for Ukraine in the south are the lack of air support and the defensive lines that Russia has spent the last few months preparing, with satellite imagery suggesting that Russia has 2 defensive lines in the east of Saparizhia and 3 in the west.

These defensive lines are composed of various fortifications, including trenches, shelters, anti-tank obstacles and minefields.

Plus, certain strategically significant towns, including Tokmak, are entirely surrounded by circular ditches that can house anti-tank teams.

To be clear, we're not saying that this attack on the bridge will have no impact on the battlefield.

It will put added strain on Russia's logistics and demoralise Russian forces.

But the point we're making is that it's unlikely to precede a sweeping advance on the front lines, Given that Ukraine's main obstacles aren't Russia's great logistics, but its defensive lines and Ukraine's lack of air support.

However, while it might not have much of a direct impact on the battlefield, it's still bad news for Putin because it will put him under even more political pressure.

And Putin is already under some serious political pressure in the aftermath of Wagner's attempted coup last month, and there are reports that he's currently reshuffling his military command to try and insulate his regime.

The Kirchbridge might be hundreds of kilometres behind the front lines, but it's widely perceived in Russia to be a symbol of both Russian power and Moscow's continuing commitment to Crimea post-annexation.

In this context then, the attack will have been deeply politically embarrassing for the Kremlin, especially because it's the second time this has happened.

And Russian telegram channels are already demanding that Putin retaliate in some way.

Somewhat ironically, last time the bridge was attacked, Putin retaliated by increasing the frequency of missile strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure and replacing his generals with Sergei Surovkin, a hardliner who used to be the head of Russia's southern military command in Ukraine and who made his name by running Russia's operations in Syria.

Now, Serovkin was widely considered to be a more effective, but more brutal strategist.

But he hasn't been seen since Wagner's coup, probably because he's been fired for being too friendly to Wagner.

As such, Putin can't really retaliate the same way he did last time, both because he's already firing an unprecedented number of missiles at Ukraine, and because he needs to stick with his most loyal commanders.

Either he doesn't respond, which makes him look even weaker, or he goes for some massive escalation like a tactical nuke or another wave of mobilization.

While either strategy might appease Russian nationalists, Putin has been wary of escalating in this manner because a.

It undermines his narrative that the special military operation isn't a big deal and b.

Because it won't go down well with the international community and especially NATO.

Ultimately then, while this bridge won't make a massive difference on the battlefield, Putin doesn't have any good options here.

Either he ignores the attack and makes himself look weaker, increasing the chances of regime change, or he retaliates in some major escalation which also carries major political risks.

Ukraine might capture the headlines, but it's far from the only contemporary conflict.

There's a whole lot more happening around the world too.

In fact, Real Life Law's superb modern conflicts is a brilliant series which runs you through all kinds of ongoing and recent crises.

Through this series' beautiful visuals and incredibly detailed research, you can learn about everything from the ongoing and troubling civil war in Ethiopia, which we've discussed a number of times on TLDR Global, the latest on the war in Ukraine, or how the rise of ISIS shook the Middle East.

If that sounds good to you, then you can watch this series alongside a load of others which perfectly complement TLDR videos exclusively on our streaming service, Nebula, where you can also find a bunch of TLDR content too.

That's because we post all of our videos ad-free on Nebula, as well as sharing some of our videos there before they ever make it to YouTube.

Not only that, we also release hours worth of content only on Nebula every month, from extended editions of our show The Daily Briefing, to exclusive explainers and behind-the-scenes clips.

And the good news is that all of this, TLDR content, exclusive documentary series, and a bunch of other brilliant creators are available at a great price.

That's because if you sign up using our link in the description, then you


Speaker 0: This video was brought to you by Nebula. In the early hours of Monday morning, the Kirch Bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia was blown up for the second time in 12 months. So in this video we're going to take a look at what happened on Monday, how this might affect the war, and why this is really bad news for Putin Before we start if you haven't already please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos. So let's dive straight into it and take a look at what happened yesterday. Now the first thing to say is that we're obviously writing this video only a few hours after the events and A lot of this information is yet to be confirmed and often originates from Russian telegram channels.

So, take everything with a pinch of salt. But at the time of writing, it looks like in the early hours of Monday morning, sometime around 3am, the Kerch Bridge was blown up again. Now for context, the Kerch Bridge, sometimes known as the Crimean Bridge, is the only major transport bridge between Crimea and mainland Russia. Now construction began after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the bridge opened in 2018. Now it gets its name because it runs from the Kirch Peninsula in Crimea to the Taman Peninsula in Russia, making it the longest bridge in Europe and upon its opening it was presented by both Putin and the Kremlin as a symbol of Russian power.

Now, if we're being picky, it's actually really 2 bridges. There's a four-lane road bridge and a double-track railway running parallel to 1 another. Now that's important because on Monday, the 4 lane road bridge was blown up somehow. According to the Wagner affiliated Grayzone Telegram channel, there were 2 explosions, 1 at 3.04 AM and 1 at 3.20. Now We don't have any videos of the strikes themselves, so we don't know for sure, but it looks like it was either a missile strike or a navy drone attack.

But the latter does seem more likely, for 2 reasons. Firstly, there's pretty good anti-air defence there, which would have made a missile strike fairly difficult. And secondly, videos taken from the train bridge that run parallel to the bridge seem to show that the bridge is sagging into the water, which suggests that the base or foundations were attacked. Regardless though, 2 people were apparently killed in the incident. And according to Krasnodar health authorities, cited by Russian state media, It looks like traffic over the bridge has been halted indefinitely.

While Kiev hasn't commented on the events and Ukraine's southern military command has actually suggested it might be a false flag attack, it was most likely organized by Ukraine. This is both because other Ukrainian officials have at least implied that Ukraine was responsible. In fact, a few hours before the attack, Ukraine's ground forces commander said on Telegram that he was preparing a lullaby for the Russians. And because this is what happened in October last year when a truck filled with explosives blew up the bridge, causing a fire which then spread to the rail bridge. Now, when it comes to this previous incident, the Ukrainians did initially deny responsibility.

But not long after, they released a tweet comparing the events on the Crimean bridge to what happened in Moskovo, strongly implying that Ukraine had carried out the bombing. And a couple of days after that, Ukrainian officials admitted to Western news outlets that they had organised the attack. Regardless though, the bridge has been blown up again, so what happens next? Well, strategically, this attack probably won't make much of a difference to the ongoing counter-offensive, at least not in the short term. While this will put added strain on Russia's logistics operation in the south, the Russians will still be able to supply their troops in Zaporizhia via the railways that run from Russia through the Donetsk Oblast down to Russian occupied Melitopol.

And even if it did significantly strain Russia's logistics here, the main obstacles for Ukraine in the south are the lack of air support and the defensive lines that Russia has spent the last few months preparing, with satellite imagery suggesting that Russia has 2 defensive lines in the east of Saparizhia and 3 in the west. These defensive lines are composed of various fortifications, including trenches, shelters, anti-tank obstacles and minefields. Plus, certain strategically significant towns, including Tokmak, are entirely surrounded by circular ditches that can house anti-tank teams. To be clear, we're not saying that this attack on the bridge will have no impact on the battlefield. It will put added strain on Russia's logistics and demoralise Russian forces.

But the point we're making is that it's unlikely to precede a sweeping advance on the front lines, Given that Ukraine's main obstacles aren't Russia's great logistics, but its defensive lines and Ukraine's lack of air support. However, while it might not have much of a direct impact on the battlefield, it's still bad news for Putin because it will put him under even more political pressure. And Putin is already under some serious political pressure in the aftermath of Wagner's attempted coup last month, and there are reports that he's currently reshuffling his military command to try and insulate his regime. The Kirchbridge might be hundreds of kilometres behind the front lines, but it's widely perceived in Russia to be a symbol of both Russian power and Moscow's continuing commitment to Crimea post-annexation. In this context then, the attack will have been deeply politically embarrassing for the Kremlin, especially because it's the second time this has happened.

And Russian telegram channels are already demanding that Putin retaliate in some way. Somewhat ironically, last time the bridge was attacked, Putin retaliated by increasing the frequency of missile strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure and replacing his generals with Sergei Surovkin, a hardliner who used to be the head of Russia's southern military command in Ukraine and who made his name by running Russia's operations in Syria. Now, Serovkin was widely considered to be a more effective, but more brutal strategist. But he hasn't been seen since Wagner's coup, probably because he's been fired for being too friendly to Wagner. As such, Putin can't really retaliate the same way he did last time, both because he's already firing an unprecedented number of missiles at Ukraine, and because he needs to stick with his most loyal commanders.

This leaves him in a bit of a bind then. Either he doesn't respond, which makes him look even weaker, or he goes for some massive escalation like a tactical nuke or another wave of mobilization. While either strategy might appease Russian nationalists, Putin has been wary of escalating in this manner because a. It undermines his narrative that the special military operation isn't a big deal and b. Because it won't go down well with the international community and especially NATO.

Ultimately then, while this bridge won't make a massive difference on the battlefield, Putin doesn't have any good options here. Either he ignores the attack and makes himself look weaker, increasing the chances of regime change, or he retaliates in some major escalation which also carries major political risks. Ukraine might capture the headlines, but it's far from the only contemporary conflict. There's a whole lot more happening around the world too. In fact, Real Life Law's superb modern conflicts is a brilliant series which runs you through all kinds of ongoing and recent crises.

Through this series' beautiful visuals and incredibly detailed research, you can learn about everything from the ongoing and troubling civil war in Ethiopia, which we've discussed a number of times on TLDR Global, the latest on the war in Ukraine, or how the rise of ISIS shook the Middle East. If that sounds good to you, then you can watch this series alongside a load of others which perfectly complement TLDR videos exclusively on our streaming service, Nebula, where you can also find a bunch of TLDR content too. That's because we post all of our videos ad-free on Nebula, as well as sharing some of our videos there before they ever make it to YouTube. Not only that, we also release hours worth of content only on Nebula every month, from extended editions of our show The Daily Briefing, to exclusive explainers and behind-the-scenes clips. And the good news is that all of this, TLDR content, exclusive documentary series, and a bunch of other brilliant creators are available at a great price.

That's because if you sign up using our link in the description, then you

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Ukraine Attacks the Kerch Bridge: Will Putin Escalate?