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Michael Oliver is the founder of the highly accurate Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA) Technical Investment Strategy. J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park.  He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX. In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust  Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

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Michael Oliver is the CEO of Momentum Structural Analysis.

Michael has unique way of analyzing the momentum in gold and silver price action.

He has been following the silver market for decades.

I think they had their chance the last few weeks of selling in gold and silver to go ahead and get it done.

Well instead of looking just at price which everybody looks at, which sometimes can tease you because first off everybody sees it and everybody therefore might see an obvious breakout 1 way or the other on a price chart.

It may or may not be valid, but oftentimes when there's a consensus about something, it doesn't work.

Okay, we look at momentum because to some extent that detaches our analysis away from the month of the fiat currency by which everyone else is measuring an asset and we know that that fiat currency in our case, the dollar is changing dramatically, even on a short period of time in terms of its real intrinsic value.

You know, it used to be every decade since 1959.

So I mean, that's a huge degradation, but now we're on a very high speed rate of degradation of the money unit, meaning quantification of the money unit.

So these yardsticks that people use to measure things are rubber yardsticks.

And so to detach ourself from the price chart, which is to say, move a bit away from the fiat currency unit of measure.

We measure the action of the market in relation to certain moving averages.

How much above, how much below that given average, we oscillated like an oscillator there that to some extent separates us partially from using the fiat currency as our yardstick because it sets a new yardstick.

It's partly based on the dynamics of the acid itself.

It was how fast is that moving average rising or falling that depends on, you know, the price action, but it's a step away from just using nominal price.

All right, But when we look at our momentum charts, we're looking essentially at the same thing that the price chart folks look at and that is trends, you know, uptrend lines, downtrend lines, floors, ceilings, the whole deal, except we see him on momentum.

Usually momentum will make a trend change before price will so we have a heads-up that hope something's going on here and or another situation is if you get a breakout on price, but you don't get a breakout of momentum beware.

So right now, when we look at a gold and silver chart, what you have is a lot of confusion on the price charts.

high of gold and you work yourself down to the March low at 1673 and since then we've been caught in a range gold has generally at that low.

We retested quickly in early August in the nighttime selling that occurred 1 night in the electronic market, but basically you've been you've been oscillating either side of 1750 to

It was our assumption when the March low occurred.

That was a 20% correction Took him 9 months to get that 20% correction that that was probably below.

And yes, we've had some selling pressure back toward that level a couple times over the last several months, especially since the Fed taper talk began mid-June that that sharp sell-off in early August in the nighttime session, etc, etc.

You generally wrapped around the notion that defense going to somehow change everything the other way is if I think the markets digested that pretty well fundamentally and sort of said, and I don't know because if it really believed that it should be continuing to collapse.

So should a lot of markets, frankly, including the stock market.

So I think to some extent that's baked into the cake in terms of possible policy change by the Fed, but it's very incremental and we suspect based on the vulnerable look of, for instance, the US stock market in terms of starting a decline that would upset the Fed and upset a lot of people, that That is a factor that must be watched, if you're watching gold, watch the stock market.

Because if it starts to go down, that's going to put pressure on the Fed to not taper, or to reverse a tapering policy.

Before we continue, help us clicking that youtube like button and subscribe now to our channel.

This shows the algorithm that you valued this information.

So, we think that's a very important thing to look at, even if you're not involved in the stock market.

We've got some numbers on gold and silver that are not far above the current market.

If you go there, we think that the issue about which way is this going to reconcile is going to resolve quickly upside and without getting too specific because the numbers do change over time each month.

They might adjust a bit so forth and also, you know, our subscribers pay for that service.

So we don't want to give it away for free, but I can I can tell you that less than a dollar above where silver is right now?

You're going to start to engage some momentum factors to the upside, which will indicate to us that Okay, that downside pressure.

We just saw in Seoul, which nipped out the September 2020 low.

They remember to be up 6 weeks after the high August of 2020 silver drop from near 30 down to under

and then it would pop back up and lived above that $22 level all during that time until a few weeks to go.

We went down and nipped out 22 got to like 2150 just enough to say, okay, I broke down.

Now, we've popped back up into The range.

The question is when you look at a price chart, where do you, where do you get bullish?

So, well, I think you have to go back to 30 years before you start to emerge on price.

But we're arguing that starting in the mid 23's.

Silver is telling us that it wants to re-engage back up to the upside from gold and numbers in the 1820s.

Okay, we've got a couple numbers up there that if you get there, it says, okay, we're coming out of this this trading range.

So right now, if you're watching gold, just sit back And watch, you know, don't add your position until you see these numbers engaged.

And if you're not in the gold market for any reason, then wait for those numbers to be engaged on silver and gold and then say, okay, lights turn green again, but I would think within a few months of engaging The numbers that we've got above the market again, which aren't that far above that you could go to new highs within a couple months.

You could use sweep back up through the price range.

We've been in for 14 months and go back and prove to the price folks.

Hey, you know, this thing really is alive.

Of course, that's going to require gold getting up back to 2000 area, for example, and gold on price charts.

It is and so we're getting back up close to 30.

Our numbers are well below their terms of confidence that it's going to re-engage out of this.

What in effect is a large congestion zone?

The results break below the March lows in gold 1673.

Let's collapse down toward The three-year average of just in the lower 1500s.

Okay, they've had plenty of shots to do it.

They've had plenty of time to do it and they can't seem to get it done that March low is still holding up and silver finally went down and didn't make a lower low that it had it in any point in the last 14 months did by 50 cents immediately pop back into the range again.

So we think that was sort of a failed effort by the price chart is to get something going on the downside.

But if you hit the numbers, I just mentioned above the market.

I think you can see you can seal it off that The downside efforts have failed.

And we're now going to re-engage to the upside.


Speaker 0: Michael Oliver is the CEO of Momentum Structural Analysis. Michael has unique way of analyzing the momentum in gold and silver price action. He has been following the silver market for decades. This is what he says.

Speaker 1: I think they had their chance the last few weeks of selling in gold and silver to go ahead and get it done. Well instead of looking just at price which everybody looks at, which sometimes can tease you because first off everybody sees it and everybody therefore might see an obvious breakout 1 way or the other on a price chart. It may or may not be valid, but oftentimes when there's a consensus about something, it doesn't work. Okay, we look at momentum because to some extent that detaches our analysis away from the month of the fiat currency by which everyone else is measuring an asset and we know that that fiat currency in our case, the dollar is changing dramatically, even on a short period of time in terms of its real intrinsic value. You know, it used to be every decade since 1959.

So I mean, that's a huge degradation, but now we're on a very high speed rate of degradation of the money unit, meaning quantification of the money unit. Same is true with the euro and the yen. So forth. So these yardsticks that people use to measure things are rubber yardsticks. And so to detach ourself from the price chart, which is to say, move a bit away from the fiat currency unit of measure.

We measure the action of the market in relation to certain moving averages. How much above, how much below that given average, we oscillated like an oscillator there that to some extent separates us partially from using the fiat currency as our yardstick because it sets a new yardstick. It's partly based on the dynamics of the acid itself. It was how fast is that moving average rising or falling that depends on, you know, the price action, but it's a step away from just using nominal price. Okay, that was confusing enough.

All right, But when we look at our momentum charts, we're looking essentially at the same thing that the price chart folks look at and that is trends, you know, uptrend lines, downtrend lines, floors, ceilings, the whole deal, except we see him on momentum. Usually momentum will make a trend change before price will so we have a heads-up that hope something's going on here and or another situation is if you get a breakout on price, but you don't get a breakout of momentum beware. It could be a false price signal. And so that that also assists us. So right now, when we look at a gold and silver chart, what you have is a lot of confusion on the price charts.

It's pretty clear for 9 months involved. You drop from your August

Speaker 0: 2020

Speaker 1: high of gold and you work yourself down to the March low at 1673 and since then we've been caught in a range gold has generally at that low. We retested quickly in early August in the nighttime selling that occurred 1 night in the electronic market, but basically you've been you've been oscillating either side of 1750 to

Speaker 0: 1850

Speaker 1: since that March low. It was our assumption when the March low occurred. That was a 20% correction Took him 9 months to get that 20% correction that that was probably below. And yes, we've had some selling pressure back toward that level a couple times over the last several months, especially since the Fed taper talk began mid-June that that sharp sell-off in early August in the nighttime session, etc, etc. You generally wrapped around the notion that defense going to somehow change everything the other way is if I think the markets digested that pretty well fundamentally and sort of said, and I don't know because if it really believed that it should be continuing to collapse.

So should a lot of markets, frankly, including the stock market. So I think to some extent that's baked into the cake in terms of possible policy change by the Fed, but it's very incremental and we suspect based on the vulnerable look of, for instance, the US stock market in terms of starting a decline that would upset the Fed and upset a lot of people, that That is a factor that must be watched, if you're watching gold, watch the stock market. Because if it starts to go down, that's going to put pressure on the Fed to not taper, or to reverse a tapering policy.

Speaker 2: Before we continue, help us clicking that youtube like button and subscribe now to our channel. This shows the algorithm that you valued this information. And it helps us spread that message. Sharing is caring. And now, let's continue.

Speaker 1: So, we think that's a very important thing to look at, even if you're not involved in the stock market. We've got some numbers on gold and silver that are not far above the current market. If you go there, we think that the issue about which way is this going to reconcile is going to resolve quickly upside and without getting too specific because the numbers do change over time each month. They might adjust a bit so forth and also, you know, our subscribers pay for that service. So we don't want to give it away for free, but I can I can tell you that less than a dollar above where silver is right now?

Silver is about

Speaker 0: 2260 2270

Speaker 1: less than a dollar above that level. You're going to start to engage some momentum factors to the upside, which will indicate to us that Okay, that downside pressure. We just saw in Seoul, which nipped out the September 2020 low. They remember to be up 6 weeks after the high August of 2020 silver drop from near 30 down to under

Speaker 0: 22

Speaker 1: and then it would pop back up and lived above that $22 level all during that time until a few weeks to go. We went down and nipped out 22 got to like 2150 just enough to say, okay, I broke down. Now, we've popped back up into The range. The question is when you look at a price chart, where do you, where do you get bullish? Well, you look at the price chart.

So, well, I think you have to go back to 30 years before you start to emerge on price. But we're arguing that starting in the mid 23's. Silver is telling us that it wants to re-engage back up to the upside from gold and numbers in the 1820s. Okay, we've got a couple numbers up there that if you get there, it says, okay, we're coming out of this this trading range. So right now, if you're watching gold, just sit back And watch, you know, don't add your position until you see these numbers engaged.

And if you're not in the gold market for any reason, then wait for those numbers to be engaged on silver and gold and then say, okay, lights turn green again, but I would think within a few months of engaging The numbers that we've got above the market again, which aren't that far above that you could go to new highs within a couple months. It was pretty rapidly. You could use sweep back up through the price range. We've been in for 14 months and go back and prove to the price folks. Hey, you know, this thing really is alive.

Of course, that's going to require gold getting up back to 2000 area, for example, and gold on price charts. It is and so we're getting back up close to 30. Our numbers are well below their terms of confidence that it's going to re-engage out of this. What in effect is a large congestion zone? I think they had their chance the last few weeks of selling in gold and silver to go ahead and get it done.

The results break below the March lows in gold 1673. Let's collapse down toward The three-year average of just in the lower 1500s. Okay, they've had plenty of shots to do it. They've had plenty of time to do it and they can't seem to get it done that March low is still holding up and silver finally went down and didn't make a lower low that it had it in any point in the last 14 months did by 50 cents immediately pop back into the range again. So we think that was sort of a failed effort by the price chart is to get something going on the downside.

I will say they totally fail. But if you hit the numbers, I just mentioned above the market. I think you can see you can seal it off that The downside efforts have failed. They've done all they can do. And we're now going to re-engage to the upside.

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Michael Oliver: Silver on the Brink of a Game-Changing Transformation: What's About to Happen?