The stock market bubble busted early 2022, says momentum analyst Michael Oliver. To those waiting for stocks to take off once the Fed pauses, he says, "Don't bet on it." He says a shift is likely to occur, pushing asset managers into precious metals. He says $26 for silver and $2100 for gold are key levels, that once they break through, the metals could surge higher.

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0:00 Intro
1:50 Gold & silver update
8:02 Fed pause?
13:30 Hidden market factors
24:30 Oliver MSA
25:27 Miles Franklin
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So those who are hopeful that if the Fed pauses or maybe ultimately starts lowering rates, that'll help the stock market.

And I think that's probably important for gold.

This is Kaiser Johnson with Liberty in Finance, and this is the Miles Franklin Weekly Special for June 6th through June 13th, 2023, while supplies last.

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And back with us today is our good friend, Michael Oliver, the founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, OliverMSA.com.

Michael, thank you so much for joining us today.

I did want to get an update on the precious metals.

First of all, what the momentum is really showing your analysis there.

I know if you just look on at price, Even though we're seeing a bit of a pullback here in both of the metals, it seems like we're making higher highs and higher lows.

You just made actually even on price, especially if you look at silver.

Well gold was in a range from 2020 summer high 2022 high and recent highs, sort of flat range.

Silver was in a slightly down trending channel and talking price now.

Silver burst through that channel earlier this year, especially by March, was very evident.

The pullback is basically dancing on top of that channel.

So even from a price chart perspective, this pullback Is a pullback in now what is an emergent uptrend?

Okay Momentum we measure all kinds of timescales annual momentum quarterly momentum monthly weekly, etc What has been going on since basically March and gold and silver has been repeated selling in those markets that has really not produced much downside.

In other words, if you've been short gold, let's say, not at the exact top tick of the rally, but let's say around 2000, well, you're making 20, 30 bucks.

And it's been several months of selling so even even from just a price chart point of view if you're a bear consider that okay if you're a bull consider how the bear feels he didn't feel real great He's not really making a lot of money and 1 good day, we could blow him out.

Gold has set a triple top on a price chart.

If you keep pointing figures X and O charts, you know, $50 by 3 block reversal.

You've got 3 highs at 2050, 2050, and 2050.

That's 2020 high, 2022 high, and a recent high.

So you're sitting there on this point and figure chart at a triple top.

After having blown out a triple bottom in the last summer and fall, falsely, we said it would be a false price chart breakout.

We had repeated lows at 1700, we went down to 1650.

Now, when you have that kind of box, on a point-and-figure chart, if you're just a point-and-figure guy and that's your universe, if you have a box like that and you blow out 1 end of it and it's a trap, and you go back to the other end, it won't be a trap.

So when you hit 2100, there's a whole bunch of people going to say, oh, golly, I missed it.

Our number on silver, it's an old high in 2020.

It made a high in that March 22 rally when gold was back up to its high silver wasn't silver was up in the highest weekly close was like 2610 again this is March of last year we came back up again above 26 recently and pushed and pushed and pushed They couldn't get through there and then they backed off into the low 23s right now.

We argue if you get back over 26 again, watch out.

So those are numbers we'd watch if we were wanted to have a larger position or if we're not positioned in those markets.

That's the point at which when you go through those numbers, we think those 2 metals will then move from an arm wrestling upside move to something more explosive.

So I think that the pullback we've had in silver probably saw us low in the low 23s 2 weeks ago, 2 to 3 weeks ago, retested repeatedly.

I think that probably was the corrective low.

For gold, we've got some numbers, basically a few dollars above today's close.

Official settlement's around 1955 on the June contract.

You close a week out above 1956 by much, and our weekly momentum, which is a fairly short-term metric, says, OK, you're out of your corrective mode.

While gold has been pulling back over the last several months, not much, but the stock market has been pressing upward.

Again, not much, especially if you look at the S&P.

We nipped out some highs recently, last week, above 4, 200, got up to near 4, 300.

That took out some prior highs, but marginally, and we're just spinning our wheels up here.

I know everybody's anticipating that if the Fed pauses, oh boy, stock market's going to party.

If you take a Fed funds chart and go back through history and look at what happened up to 2000, the year 2000, the dot-com high, the Fed had been raising rates.

In early 2001, they started to cut rates.

Did that save the market from a bear market to the 2002 low?

They cut rates all the way down, the market went down anyway.

2007, they've been raising rates all the way up to the 2006-2007 period, and they peaked, rates peaked, I think it was at 5.25% Fed funds in the summer of 2007.

They actually started cutting rates while the market was still at its highs.

And all the way down to the bear market low of 2009, the Fed cut rates, but it didn't save the market.

So those who are hopeful that if the Fed pauses, or maybe ultimately starts lowering rates, that'll help the stock market, don't bet on it.

And I think that's probably important for gold, because asset shift will occur.

Now, when it comes to the Fed possibly pausing, do you anticipate that this week, or what is your forecast on that?

They created this bubble, and they started to choke it, and as far as we're concerned, it's done.

And all we've seen since then is arm wrestling match with a protracted rally effort by really led by 5 or 6 stocks that are so heavily weighted that you can take like 490 stocks in the S&P and if you looked only at them, we've gone nowhere since the 2022 lows.

If you include those 5 or 6 stocks, and you know what they are, that are so heavily weighted, they constitute like 30% plus of the S&P.

That explains the S&P's fairly anemic rebound.

It's not even a 50% rally back to the highs, but that everybody's cheering and hopeful for.

But it's really an extremely narrow market event, heavily distorted by 5 or 6 stocks.

So at MSA, what we're watching are areas that the public is not largely watching.

Yes, they're watching Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, et cetera, the heavily weighted ones.

And we're watching them for rollover, and we think it's very close at hand.

Once they roll over, that'll hurt the psychology.

It'll also hurt the metrics, because they're so heavily weighted.

But we're also watching sectors that few people are highly focused on.

Health care is a very comfy looking chart.

We punch up a chart of XLV, which is the ETF of the health care sector.

It's a heavily weighted sector within the S&P, by the way.

And since it's 2022 highs, basically it's gone to sleep in a quiet range.

It had a small pullback with the S&P in 2022, but very small, almost non-existent.

And it's just nestled up there in the middle of this quiet range.

And so if you're looking at assets that look pretty good compared to the market, you think, well, health care is a pretty safe place.

That's the place we're looking for an ambush.

In late January of this year, banks were looking quite good.

They'd been performing better than the S&P all during 2022, and they were looking tough in early 2023.

We put out 2 reports saying, watch out for an ambush in the bank sector.

Banks collapsed through the 2022 low and were so far below that low that if the S&P were matching the banks, it'd be trading around the 3000 right now.

The other sector we're watching is the broader financial sector.

Because it, while it's anemic, is not taking out the 2022 lows.

And if you start to take non-bank financial institutions through the 2022 lows, We're not far away from that, by the way.

Things like American Express, Visa, insurance companies, and so forth, large asset management for Berkshire Hathaway, BlackRock.

You start to take those type of financial entities through levels that people thought they shouldn't be going through, then suddenly it's not just the banking situation, which everybody's belatedly looking at, but suddenly it's the broader financial sector.

It's laboring not far away from its 2022 lows, but has yet to take them out.

When that occurs, that's going to also dent psychology.

And so it's like we think there's a switch here that could go easily from copacetic and happy to, oh gosh, I made a mistake.

And I think to some extent, the movement of assets out of this hope-filled rally in the S&P has to go somewhere else.

And frankly, anybody portfolio manager who's looking at assets that have gone sideways to up since, let's say, 2021, gold.

Silver is much higher than it was in 2021.

Gold is a couple hundred hours higher than it was in 2021.

Okay, so those asset categories will attract further money flow out of those evacuating the stock market.

So to some extent, if you're in gold, start to watch the stock market again, because if we see a sign of rollover, it's beneficial to gold.

Now when it comes to the precious metals, I know if we do break out of the 26 level on silver and the $2, 100 level on gold, what are the next price points you're looking at?

We think a surge in gold could easily carry to the mid 2000s, maybe 2700 even, just rapidly, a gusher.

Actually, percent-wise, it's not a big deal, if you think about it.

And if you go back and look at the history of gold in the last 50 years, there have been a couple bull markets that were eightfold moves.

Ultimately, it wouldn't shock us that we do another, quote, routine move in gold.

But the fundamentals out there, the economic political background is, we think, historic.

And we think the wave effects for gold and silver could be far more dramatic, and also more chaos theory.

And I think the rapidity is about to begin once we cross those numbers.

Now, As for some market factors that people are not really paying attention to, I know in 2020, you just sent me 1 of the reports that you did in 2020.

And you mentioned a few things that are really actually happening today and really progressing today.

There are movements right now towards that.

And we'd like to discuss how that could impact markets and also a few states looking at gold backed currencies to rival the you know, the current government monopoly on that.

Could we start with state secession and how that really is a Factor that not many people are looking at right now

again when we put out that report Ray Dalio had made a speech Or we got a quote from him that he said and I want to quote it exactly He's and this is it in 2020 now The world is likely to see a change in, quote, shocking ways over the next 5 years.

Okay, now, what are some of those shocking ways?

Markets are moved by other things than economic data points.

Things that few people are thinking about and integrating into their analysis of the current market situation.

We suggested a few of them back then, that was in September, we put out this report.

And we weren't advocating, so anybody who's hearing this from the NSA or wherever, we're not advocating, we're simply analyzing potential situations that could impact markets that aren't on people's horizons.

1 of them would be collapsing the income tax system.

Not because the government wants to abolish income taxes, although under Trump, Stephen Moore, who was an economic advisor to him, suggested abolishing income tax and going to a national sales tax.

A few people remember that, but he was advocating that.

The failure of the IRS to collect the tax.

First off, this year was sort of a surprise to the government.

Now I don't know all the reasons for that, but 1 of them has got to be capital gains because 2022 was a very bad year for capital gains.

So to the extent that that affected the income flow at the IRS, that probably was a factor.

I'm also suspecting that when we turn down again, that the unemployment situation is gonna cause more and more people to either 1, not file and hope they don't get caught by the IRS, or request filing delays, or something of that sort, you know, where they simply cannot afford to pay.

And they have to either delay it or try to avoid it.

That sort of statistic, if in fact it occurs, could prompt the government into realizing that the IRS and income taxes is not the best way to get revenue.

In which case, the better alternative, whether they want it or not, is a national consumption tax.

It's not on the front burner, but if those sort of events start to pile up and cause the IRS to diminish in its income producing status, and we know it's dysfunctional anyway, the IRS is dysfunctional in terms of its ability to do what it's supposed to do.

That could be a situation that we're facing is abolishment of income tax.

Plus there's enough rebellion out there among certain people against the central government and it's getting worse.

And Trump isn't the only 1 claiming this.

It's a reality that is growing Where you might even have a tax revolt.

You know, again, we're not advocating, we're simply reading under the surface what we think might be coming.

That's a factor that's not built into the markets.

There are many counties in the US, in Oregon and even in Illinois, that are voting for secession.

In fact, there's 1 county I know of in Oregon that actually passed it by a small margin, but they did pass it.

They want to break off from the left wing part of Oregon, which is the Western part.

Many Eastern counties in Oregon want to secede and join Idaho.

They want to break off from the left-wing part of Oregon, which is the western part.

Many eastern counties in Oregon want to secede and join Idaho.

In the state of Texas, there's a bill that's going to be on the 2024 ballot, and it's a House Bill 3596, to be precise.

And it is a speculative question mark type bill, But it says it wants to invest in this legislature to investigate whether they should start to consider the possibility of Texas independence from the US.

Again, it's the kind of thing that you might think, oh, that's impossible.

But given certain trends in politics, if certain things happen or don't happen, it wouldn't shock me that that comes to the fore.

Also the other issue we brought up was the possibility, and again this is in late 2020, that states would shift to or acknowledge the legality of gold and silver as money, legal tender.

Alaska has, legislature has approved that.

They've announced that the state will, you know, people who run shops and stores can use it as legal tender.

The state recognizes gold and silver as legal money.

Well, in effect, that's telling the federal government's monopoly over the paper fiat currency, the dollar, that you didn't get a monopoly anymore.

In fact, there's talk in Texas of creating their own currency that would be a crypto gold-backed currency.

I'm not sure what its status is right now.

Now, These are, in effect, fragmented secession movements.

It's not Texas seceding from the country, although that's possible, too.

They want to create a secessionist currency, a money unit that's backed by real money.

These are rebellions, and these are not priced into the potential future that's ahead of us.

So these are variables that may not be 10 years out.

They could be 10 weeks out or 10 months out.

And Nobody's priced them into the markets as a variable.

It does definitely make it an interesting world.

How do you see that these initiatives could impact markets?

I mean, obviously there's a lot of the tax implications.

You mentioned federal income tax, changing that and stuff and revenue for the government.

But as for financial markets, how would these initiatives impact those?

It just throws up in the air the entire notion of the central government being having its thumb on the economy.

Maybe its money unit is degraded in terms of it's not only international acceptance, but it's domestic acceptance.

In which case, the Federal Reserve do what they want with the inflation, inflate or deflate the money supply, or raise interest rates or not.

We don't care about their currency anymore.

I mean, it fragments all kinds of concepts and underpinnings so that where you are measuring things from, what you're thinking about trends, all of a sudden factors you didn't build into your perspective are hitting you in the face.

In which case it's 52 card pickup, you know, literally where Projections go out the window and it's Seduces wild and and that could be healthy You know if change needs to occur then perhaps it occurs and perhaps it occurs in those sort of ways.

But those things that we talked about in late 2020, suddenly now are starting to actually pop up.

I know we often talk about on this channel, like the BRICS developing a possibly gold-backed or commodity-backed currency to rival the US dollar.

But this, if Texas initiates this crypto gold backed currency, as you mentioned, this is a domestic rival to the US dollar.

How do you think this initiative and possibly other ones could impact the value of the dollar?

Well, it would just undercut its legitimacy and once The point of that is also it's the wider concept because when somebody realizes that they can thumb their nose at the central bank and the federal government's control over money, they can thumb their nose at other things.

And so, like I said, it's 52-car pickup at that point.

It was once you topple 1 thing, and it works, it actually happens, And the central government can't come down on it and stop the process.

And no doubt they would try to take legal steps through the Supreme Court and so forth, federal courts to try to stop it.

But once that initiative begins, all kinds of fragmentation could occur well beyond those issues.

In which case, the entire framework of assessment of where does the market fit into this go out the window.

And then what do you want for a sense of stability as a person with assets?

Because I don't think these things, if they're going to happen, I don't think they're going to happen in in gradual steps over the next 3 or 4 years I think they're going to happen in big clumps and suddenly and surprise a lot of people and That's the kind of part of the reason why we think that this move in gold It's not going to be a normal move

And we are even seeing more pushback, for example, from Florida.

DeSantis wanting to outlaw central bank digital currency from the Federal Reserve.

It seems like, yeah, from Texas, from Florida, from other states, we're seeing this pushback against this centralization of power and on a federal level?

It's a, in effect, there's a secessionary events, without, you know, without the bloodshed and gunfiring, but they're secessionary.

And, you know, it wouldn't shock me that there's actually some of that other as well, particularly if certain people get mad and can't stand it anymore.

I'm just not advocating and simply saying there's a lot of stuff going on under the surface that people are not factoring into their so-called normal approach to analyzing markets.

Michael Oliver, we really appreciate your Information and analysis that you've brought to our viewers today If our viewers are interested in learning more about your analysis, they can go to Oliver MSA comm tell us a bit about that

Yeah, in fact Go to our website Oliver MSA comm and under my picture there's an email address.

In particular, I would request the current weekend report that we just put out because it covers some of these major things and it also discusses our methodology in some detail.

So it's a very informative weekend report.

Michael, Any last thoughts before we let you go?

Michael, thank you so much for your time and God bless.

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Major Asset SHIFT Into Silver/Gold | Michael Oliver