- Poker player Daniel Negreanu discusses the importance of finding profitable situations regardless of skill level
- He explains the different sources of information players project at the table, including verbal tells, body posture, and player profiling
- Negreanu also discusses the difficulty of laying down a strong hand and the concept of hand ranges in poker
- He mentions his masterclass on poker and the importance of understanding hand ranges in the game

- The range of possibilities in poker narrows as the game progresses
- Players now consider a range of hands rather than just one specific hand
- Game theory optimal (GTO) play aims to make unexploitable moves, while exploitative play takes into account past player behavior
- Constructing a player profile is important for exploiting opponents, especially in high-stakes games
- Outliers who play unorthodoxly can be very successful, as seen with player Michael Adamo

- The player in the video discusses a poker player who goes against the norm and makes unconventional moves.
- He talks about how the player's aggressive style and unconventional bets can exploit opponents' tendencies.
- The player shares a specific hand where the opponent made a large bet with a weak hand, taking advantage of the player's perceived tendency to call too often.
- The discussion also touches on the importance of bet sizing in controlling opponents' perception of one's hand range.
- The player mentions a personal preference for playing the 10-7 hand, acknowledging a bit of superstition in poker.

- The speaker discusses the role of superstition in poker and the psychological impact of bad luck.
- He talks about the importance of resilience and the difficulty of distinguishing between bad luck and poor decisions in poker.
- The speaker shares a personal experience of winning a large sum of money in poker, but feeling dangerous overconfidence.
- He also discusses the ethics of playing against opponents of lower skill levels and the mental struggles of losing a significant amount of money in a short period of time.

- Professional poker player Daniel Negreanu discusses various aspects of poker and his personal life
- He talks about his strategy, mental game, and resilience in poker
- Shares a low point in his career and the importance of allowing oneself to feel despair
- Describes his daily routine during and outside of poker tournaments, with a focus on the importance of sleep during tournaments

- The speaker discusses the challenges of preparing for a poker tournament, including getting enough sleep and maintaining mental focus.
- He follows a strict diet and meal plan, but allows himself to indulge during the World Series of Poker.
- He watches footage of opponents and takes notes to formulate a game plan.
- He talks about the changing nature of poker, with the introduction of artificial intelligence and solvers.

- The speaker discusses the use of solvers in poker and the impact on the game
- Solvers provide optimal plays for different hands, but may not always align with human intuition
- The speaker acknowledges the value of intuition and feel in poker, especially in live play
- Online poker requires a focus on fundamentals and game theory, with the ability to exploit opponent data
- The speaker enjoys the convenience of online poker but prefers playing 1-2 games at a time
- There is a concern about the loss of the "purity" of the game with the use of solvers and playing multiple tables
- The speaker appreciates the drama and magic of live poker tournaments, such as the World Series of Poker main event

Professional poker player Daniel Negreanu discusses various aspects of poker, including the importance of finding profitable situations regardless of skill level. He talks about player profiling, hand ranges, and the use of game theory optimal (GTO) play. Negreanu also shares personal experiences, such as dealing with bad luck and the impact of artificial intelligence on the game. He emphasizes the importance of resilience and mental focus, as well as the value of intuition in live play. Additionally, he discusses the challenges of preparing for poker tournaments, including maintaining a strict routine and the impact of solvers on the game. Despite the convenience of online poker, Negreanu expresses a preference for the drama and magic of live poker tournaments.

- The speaker prefers tailoring their decisions to the situation rather than randomizing
- They admire the table talk dynamic and its impact on poker hands
- They believe Phil Ivey is the greatest poker player of all time due to his dominance in various poker variants
- The speaker discusses the trade-off between greatness and happiness in sports
- Phil Ivey is considered the toughest opponent due to his ability to pick up on subtle cues and fearless play

- The speaker discusses the skills and strengths of poker players Phil Ivey, Doyle Brunson, Phil Hellmuth, and Justin Bonomo
- Phil Ivey is praised for his intuitive play and strategic mind
- Doyle Brunson is respected for his longevity and manual approach to learning the game
- Phil Hellmuth is noted for his confidence and determination, despite not using solver technology
- The speaker also mentions young player Michael Adamo and Linus Lingard as potential future greats in the poker world

- The piece discusses the online poker players Linus Love Online, Timofey Kuznetsov, and Jungleman, who are highly respected in the poker community.
- It also mentions the difficulty of staying at the top in poker and the importance of mental state and balance for success.
- The main event of the World Series of Poker is described as grueling and challenging due to the large number of players and the need to adapt to playing against unfamiliar opponents.
- Strategies for maximizing success in the main event are discussed, including the need to exploit amateur players' tendencies and the mistakes they commonly make.

- In order to win a poker tournament, players need to be aggressive and not just rely on having the best hand.
- The final table of a tournament can be unique, with players making decisions based on the value of their chips and potential pay jumps.
- Players need to decide whether they want to play it safe for guaranteed income or take risks to go for the win.
- To improve at poker, players should analyze and discuss hands they are unsure about, and utilize resources such as books and online streams.
- The dynamics of playing heads up in poker are different from playing with multiple players, requiring a wider range of hands and more intense decision-making.
- Cheating in poker, especially online, is a concern but not as common as it may be romanticized in old Western stories.

- The speaker discusses cheating in poker, both live and online
- Security measures in place to catch cheaters, including banning accounts
- The speaker shares a personal experience of being cheated in a private game
- Exploitation of imperfections in casino systems by professional gamblers
- Discussion of being kicked out of casinos for winning too much or suspected cheating
- The speaker's love for the debauchery of reality TV show Jersey Shore, but not necessarily the same atmosphere in Vegas

- The speaker discusses the fear of backlash in today's world
- Talks about the representation of Italian Americans in movies and the backlash it received
- Discusses favorite Vegas movies and personal connections to the characters
- Shares lessons learned from his mother about generosity and its impact on his life
- Gives advice to young people about pursuing their passions and not just chasing money
- Talks about the negative effects of having too much money and power, and the importance of staying true to oneself.

- Speaker prefers tailored decisions over randomizing
- Admires table talk dynamic in poker
- Believes Phil Ivey is greatest poker player
- Discusses trade-off between greatness and happiness in sports
- Phil Ivey is toughest opponent due to ability to pick up on cues
- Discusses skills of Phil Ivey, Doyle Brunson, Phil Hellmuth, and Justin Bonomo
- Mentions potential future greats Michael Adamo and Linus Lingard
- Discusses respected online poker players
- Describes grueling World Series of Poker main event
- Strategies for maximizing success in main event
- Decisions at final table of tournament
- Importance of analyzing and discussing hands to improve
- Dynamics of playing heads up in poker
- Discussion of cheating in poker, both live and online
- Security measures in place to catch cheaters
- Personal experience of being cheated in private game
- Exploitation of imperfections in casino systems
- Fear of backlash in today's world
- Representation of Italian Americans in movies
- Favorite Vegas movies and personal connections
- Lessons learned from mother about generosity
- Advice to young people about pursuing passions and staying true to oneself.

- The speaker discusses the importance of luck and timing in their poker career
- They emphasize the need for empathy and guidance for friends experiencing financial struggles in poker
- Overcoming mental struggles in poker involves taking a break, recalibrating, and rebuilding confidence
- Love and acceptance play a significant role in the speaker's personal growth and relationships
- The speaker reflects on the impact of the song "The Gambler" by Kenny Rogers on their approach to life and decision-making.

- The speaker discusses knowing when to "fold" in different situations, such as relationships and life events
- They talk about the importance of taking responsibility for one's life and how to respond to events
- The speaker expresses gratitude towards Daniel Negreanu and shares a quote from Doyle Brunson
- The podcast episode ends with a thank you and a quote from Doyle Brunson

The speaker discusses the importance of luck and timing in poker, empathy for friends in financial struggles, overcoming mental struggles, love and acceptance, the impact of "The Gambler" by Kenny Rogers, knowing when to "fold", taking responsibility for one's life, gratitude towards Daniel Negreanu, and ends with a quote from Doyle Brunson.

Daniel Negreanu is one of the greatest poker players of all time. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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EPISODE LINKS:
Daniel's Twitter: https://twitter.com/RealKidPoker
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Daniel's MasterClass: https://masterclass.com/lex
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Book mentioned:
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OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Poker hands
8:47 - Poker ranges
14:17 - Game theory optimal
30:32 - Winning
37:04 - Losing
43:05 - Mental game
47:24 - Day in the life
56:28 - History of poker
1:00:17 - Poker solvers
1:06:53 - Online poker
1:14:56 - Greatest poker player of all time
1:34:50 - Main Event of the WSOP
1:43:21 - Advice for beginners
1:48:51 - Cheating
1:58:50 - Movies
2:04:17 - Advice for young people
2:13:36 - Love
2:18:50 - The Gambler

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You could be the seventh best player in the whole world, like literally seventh best player.

But if you're playing with the other 6, you're the sucker.

You are the worst player in the game, right?

So like there's a lot of players, for example, like the Dan Blazarian's of the world, right?

He's not a top level player, like these guys you see on TV, but he probably makes more money than they do because he plays with people that are far below his skill level.

So part of the skill of being a poker player is finding situations where you're profitable, regardless of your skill level.

The following is a conversation with Daniel Negrano, 1 of the greatest poker players of all time.

To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description.

And now, dear friends, here's Daniel Negreanu.

Everything everyone does at the poker table conveys information, so let me ask sort of the big overview question.

What are the various sources of information that you project and others project at the table that convey information?

There's the ones that are conscious and then there's the ones that are subconscious, right?

Like on the conscious level, it might be something someone says, right?

You know, you ask them a question and they say, oh, you know, you shouldn't call me here, you should.

There's also the more subconscious stuff, body posture, right?

The eyes, the throat, the pulse, various things that are less controllable.

I find I use a combination of both to try to gain information, But generally when I have somebody more comfortable, they give off more.

I want my opponents to be relaxed so that they'll give me more in that regard.

So Phil Ivey likes to perturb the system, like mess with it to see what comes out.

I think Phil has an aura about him where he wants you to know that he's watching you.

Be afraid, be uncomfortable, because when you're uncomfortable, I got you, right?

And that's sort of his shtick where he, you know, and people do, like when you sit at a table with Phil Ivey, it's intimidating.

He likes to rule by fear and you like to rule by, what is it, love?

I never put it like that, but it makes a lot of sense.

Yeah, you know, fear Phil Ivey, and then with me, it's fine, don't worry, I'll take your money, but you're gonna enjoy it.

So that's what the talking at the table is about, is getting to be relaxed and get some of that gray area between the conscious and the subconscious to reveal something.

There's that too, and also just, and this is just part of who I am anyway, like I like to talk to people, but 1 of the byproducts is the more I know about you, the more I likely know about how you think about different situations, right?

Okay, so this guy probably spends a lot of his time twisting the truth, trying to find, you know, and then, so then you already have a mindset of like, this guy might be more likely to bluff, or he's probably comfortable doing that.

And you start to pick up cues on what nervousness looks like for this person, what the nervousness communicates, all that kind of stuff.

So we're talking about physical tells here.

Yeah, physical tells is a secondary thing.

I was more specifically like player profiling, right?

And sort of understanding the type of mind that I'm dealing with, right?

So again, Somebody who's a lawyer is used to trying, is fine with being deceptive as part of a game, right?

Whereas, maybe somebody is a Sunday school teacher and they don't feel comfortable, maybe they think bluffing might be dishonest, right?

So they're less likely to try some shenanigans against you.

And then the other thing too is, what type of person is this in terms of their, you know, like view on life, right?

Do they feel like things go their way or they're not, right?

There's those people that always, well, of course I lost.

And those types of people you can manipulate.

Because when a card comes that you don't have them beat, but you can pretend, because they'll believe it.

So you bet all your chips against them, knowing that you can scare them, because they already feel like they're gonna lose.

Cynicism is easier to play against because you can convince them that their cards suck.

Yeah, when somebody believes that they're a loser or they're unlucky, right?

And that bad things happen to them always and they never catch a break.

Well, you know, you can just help them make it true.

What do you think about the rounders Teddy KGB when he does the Oreo tell?

Do players at the high level communicate that kind of stuff?

Do you think it's realistic to be able to have a tell like this that's partially subconscious?

So first of all, I love Brian Koppelman who made the film.

And I think what they were going for is something obvious to the general public, right?

You know, he eats the cookie, he doesn't eat the cookie, and it means 1 or the other.

At the highest levels, something that blatant, you're not gonna find.

You're gonna find a lot more subtle things, maybe with posture or timing or different things like that.

But at the lower levels, you might see, with a lot of people, when they're in a hand and they've bet, whether they drink water in the hand is going to tell you something, generally speaking.

It's such an intimate part of the human experience that I feel like if you have food, you're gonna reveal something about yourself through the way you eat.

I feel like that's a dangerous thing to have at the table.

Well, the thing is, generally speaking, people don't eat food in the middle of a hand.

Like, they're not gonna bet and then just like, grab a burger, right?

What they will do though, is, you know, they bet and it's up to you, and then they're, whether they're uncomfortable or they do it unconsciously, they just wanna do something to make themselves look relaxed or whatever, and they grab a water where they don't really need it in that moment, but they're trying to take your mind off of the situation.

So they, in the movie, wanted to show a simplistic version of something that does happen, something that's visually sort of clear.

Yeah, because I think 1 of the things rounders got right is that it's a poker movie, right?

But you don't have to be great at poker or really understand poker to enjoy the movie.

And that, you know, Oreo cookie tale, like everyone gets that.

If he would've went with something more subtle, you know, like licking your lips or looking to the right, and I think it might've been lost on the audience.

And they didn't actually explicitly say that that was a tell, I don't think.

I thought they did everything to let you know, right?

With the music and the slow motion and he's staring at it and he's like, aha.

Yeah, but they didn't actually say, you know, this is an obvious tell.

know, After he says, how the fuck did you lay that down?

So he sort of references it, and then he takes the cookies, he notices, he's like, ah, he got me, and he breaks the rack of cookies.

Well, probably if you had that kind of tell on him, you wouldn't, and Matt Damon's character would not reveal.

Well, he says in the movie, he says, normally I wouldn't reveal a tell, but I don't have that much time.

How hard is it to do that to, in the KGB accent, to lay down a monster in those situations?

In general, how hard is it to lay down a really strong hand, just psychologically?

I mean, I think it's incredibly difficult for the vast majority of people.

Part of what makes professionals really, really good is recognizing a situation that's very, very dangerous and they need to jump ship.

What happens to a lot of players is you get married to a hand.

Let's say you have pocket aces, which is the best possible hand, right?

But the board runs out where it's 789, and then there's a jack, and then there's a 6.

It's like, you have a great hand to start, but you don't anymore.

So 1 of the difficult things for the average player is once they've put money in, cutting their losses and saying, Okay, let's move on to the next hand.

It's a very, very difficult thing for a lot

At every stage of like pre-flop, all the way through, be able to just make a decision at that moment.

Okay, I've already put in $40,000 in this pot and this guy's bet another 20.

Well, I mean, I gotta get my 40 back, right?

Except, you know, in some cases you have to reassess individually this situation and realize, all right, well, this is a bad investment, so I gotta cut my losses.

By the way, I should mention that You have an incredible YouTube channel where you explain a lot of stuff.

You do a lot of really awesome stuff My probably favorite thing that you've done is your master class That people should definitely check out masterclass.com slash Lux.

No, but it really is 1 of my favorite master class courses but also just a great introduction overview of poker.

It's great for people that like me who are beginners essentially.

But it's probably really good for intermediate people too.

I mean, there's a lot of really good detail there.

And how do you begin to estimate the range of hands that your opponents have?

Yeah, so I actually, speaking of YouTube, I did a video on specifically this, getting familiar with Rangers.

And essentially, you know, back in my day, the old days, we didn't talk about poker that way.

We're like, I think he's got this or I think he's got that.

Nobody thought of the range of hands a player can have.

So I guess the best example is imagine all the potential hands as being a part of a grid.

So the first player to act, they could have any 1 of those hands.

But let's say now that that player raised to $3,000.

Okay, well, you can eliminate now from this grid a whole bunch of hands that this player can no longer have because if they had a 2 and a 3, they wouldn't do that.

So you can say, okay, he probably has a big pair.

You've narrowed the range of hands down, right?

Now, through every action on the flop, on the turn, and on the river, based on the decisions they make, you narrow it down even further.

So the range of hands is the entirety of all the possibilities that this player you believe could have.

And sometimes they fool you, or they have a hand that you don't expect them to have in their range.

And, you know, maybe a little bit unorthodox, doing some things you don't expect to throw you off.

But a range is essentially all the possibilities, and it narrows as by the time, Before the flop, it's endless.

You know, player bets the flop, okay, it's minimized further.

And then by the river, you know, you can narrow down the entire range to, you know, just maybe even a few hands.

Is it always shrinking or is there sort of, as you get surprised, I mean, it's always just an estimate.

So does it ever expand based on sort of chaotic, unpredicted, surprising behavior of the players?

The range of hands should always get smaller, right?

Like again, we start with the full scope and then you should factor in like, okay, these are all the possible hands you can have on the flop now, right?

And if you get to that point where you think, oh, well maybe he has this hand, then you sort of misjudged his range prior.

It should always shrink from the full scope to hopefully just a couple.

Well, in that video, you also talk about it used to be that you would play your hand, but now you're playing a range, you're representing a range, you're not even just playing your hand.

So what does it mean to represent a certain range?

Yeah, so that's another big thing that's different about poker from my day to today is that back in our day, we would put people on 1 hand.

You probably have king 9 or you have Jacks or something like that.

Now, people are cognizant of the idea that you could have an entire range of hands.

So then you ask yourself in situations, all right, I know what I have, but what I could have in his mind, or my opponent's mind is any 1 of these hands.

What would I do with the entirety of these hands?

And so a lot of people that are trying to play optimally, you know, game theory optimal, they think in terms of what their range of hands would do rather than their very specific hand.

So is bluffing in that context essentially misrepresenting the range of hands that you have?

Not exactly, so an optimal range, like if I bet the river, if I'm playing game theory optimal, a portion of my range is going to be, I have it, I got the best hand, And a portion of my range is going to be bluffs, and they'll be balanced.

So in theory, no matter what you do, no matter what you do, if you call or you fold, in theory, it's just you're printing a 0, as we say.

You're not gaining or losing any EV if you were to do it that way.

So every play that you make, you know, it either is going to in the long run, you know, make you some money or it's, it's just a losing play.

And as a professional, you try to make the fewest amount of minus EV plays you can.

And the only reason you would make these minus EV plays is potentially if you were trying to set up your opponent for something later, right?

So I might make some minus EV plays, right?

So you're building up- Building up an image.

A player profile that's false in some way.

Something that I'm gonna plant seeds in your mind so that I can exploit them later.

For example, why would players show a big bluff?

They show a big bluff so that you know that they're capable of it, but maybe in their mind they're never going to do that again.

But now they think, you know, he bluffed me last time, maybe he's doing it again.

Because you can go back and forth with whether or not, okay, this guy might know that.

Like he showed a bluff because he's never gonna bluff me again.

So that's a little bit different, though when we're talking about hand ranges, that's different than building up a mental model of what your opponents, what your opponents think of you and what your opponents think that you think of them and so on and so forth, are you trying to construct those kinds of meta models and is that separate from the hand ranges?

So if in a given situation, right, my range has this many value hands and this many bluffs, okay, so in theory if I want to be balanced, you know, this is my range and this is what it looks like.

I'll bet this 50% of the time, bet this 50% of the time.

However, if I know that you think that I bluff too much, right, then I'm not going to bluff as much.

I'm going to start, instead of betting these hands that I would 50-50, now what I'll do is I'll do like 70-30, where I'm basically value betting most of the time against you.

Or vice versa, if I know you always fold because you think I have it, I'm gonna veer the other way.

And instead of bluffing 50%, I'll bluff 70-80% of the time to take advantage of your perception of me.

So to be successful, do you have to construct a solid model of all the players in the game?

Like when I play, I have in my phone, I have a player profile of everyone that I play with whenever I pick up, whether it's physical tells or tendencies they like to, you know, that they have.

And overall, that's just gonna, you know, that's gonna allow you to exploit more, right?

So like, if I played with somebody I've never played before, I'm probably just going to play optimally, or at least as optimal as I know how, until I start to gain some information on that player so that I can start to exploit them.

So what's the, when you say optimally, what does optimally mean?

Versus, so game theory, optimal versus exploitative.

Yeah, so that's like sort of the big debate in poker.

We call it for short, GTO, game theory optimal versus exploitative play.

So GTO, game theory optimal, is the idea that, no, Like I'm gonna set up my play so that no matter what you do, you cannot exploit me.

So essentially that's playing rock, paper, scissors, right?

And throwing 33% of each every time, right?

You'll never be able to beat that, right?

Exploitative play is starting to notice that, okay, well, you know what?

But now all of a sudden when I do that, I'm no longer playing optimal.

Because if you knew that I was making that adjustment, now you can exploit me.

that's where the sort of what we call the leveling war happens, where people veer from the optimal line of, okay, 33% each for each 1, you can't beat that, but you also can't win with that either.

So you're always trying to be at the cutting, at the leading edge of suboptimal play.

the highest levels, like online, that these guys play, like they're trying to play pretty close to like game theory optimal.

Because it's very difficult to do, first of all.

No human being will ever be able to compute at the level that computers can.

So that's where like the human mind has to come into play and say, all right, well, you know, if I was playing against a robot, I would do X, but I'm not.

I'm playing against you, So I have to adjust.

So does game theory optimal only look at the betting and the hands in the current hand, or does it look at the history?

So if you were to play optimally, optimally, would you need to look at the history of the individual players, or just every hand is taken afresh?

See, that's why I love playing exploitatively for the most part, because with GTO, anything that's happened in the past has no bearing on this situation.

It's simply based on what is the optimal play in a vacuum in this spot.

Whereas exploitatively, okay, this guy bluffs way too much in these spots, so now I can make an adjustment and call more, you know, based on past information.

GTO doesn't take into account history at all.

So like in a tournament, how quickly can you construct a player profile that you've never played before?

Depends on the level of the buy-in really, right?

So the higher the buy-in, generally speaking, you can assume if they're professionals that they're gonna have pretty similar profiles because everyone's playing.

You know, if you're playing this game well, it looks similar, right?

At the lower levels, playing say in 1000 or $1,500 buying or less, within a half an hour or an hour, I have an idea of, all right, just by seeing how some players played a few hands that, so here's the thing with poker, it's like I can see 1 clue of what he did and it tells me so much about what he'll do in a vast number of scenarios.

And you're saying at the high level, people don't give too many clues.

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Daniel Negreanu: Poker | Lex Fridman Podcast #324