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Speaker 1

00:00

-♪ ♪ -♪ ♪ ♪♪ Diplomacy. The thing that keeps us from immediately going to war with our enemies and from telling Liechtenstein how we really feel. You are a snobby polyp on Switzerland and they should have you removed immediately. -♪♪ It is a busy time for diplomacy in the Trump White House, what with them planning the North Korea summit, weighing what to do about Syria, and a state visit with Macron next week.

Speaker 1

00:24

None of which is helped by the fact that no 1 has seen Jared in months. Where is Jared? How can we make crucial foreign policy decisions without the White House's goodest boy? And on top of all that, there's actually a massive decision that Trump has to make just around the corner.

Speaker 2

00:41

The Iran deal is coming up.

Speaker 3

00:42

After months of will-he-won't-he rhetoric, The nuclear deal is on the president's mind once again this week as he faces a May 12th deadline to decide whether to recertify it. And there's a growing consensus that this time around, it may finally be dead once and for all.

Speaker 1

00:57

Well, that is not a good sign for the Iran deal, because whenever there is a will-he-won't-he question regarding Trump, you can pretty much guarantee that he will pick the worst possible option. Will he pull the U.S. Out of the Paris Accord?

Speaker 1

01:08

He did. Will he try and ban Muslims from entering the country? He did. Will he look directly into the sun during the solar eclipse while pointing at it as if to say, -"Look, the sun." He did.

Speaker 1

01:19

Of course he did. Of course he did that. And Trump has made it very clear how he feels about the Iran deal. He's called it, terrible, a catastrophe, stupid, insane, incompetent, really sad, horrible, horrendous, horrible, horrible, terrible, incompetent, and 1 of the dumbest and most dangerous misjudgments ever, which is coincidentally also exactly what Trump writes in Don Jr.'s birthday card every year, as is appropriate.

Speaker 1

01:44

And those criticisms are just the tip of a very large iceberg.

Speaker 2

01:47

I think it's maybe the worst deal I've ever seen. I think it's the worst deal I've ever seen negotiated. My number 1 priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.

Speaker 2

01:57

This is the worst deal. We got nothing. We got nothing. They have so out-negotiated our people, because our people are babies.

Speaker 2

02:03

They have no idea what they're doing. They will find out that if I win, we're not babies. There's no more being babies anymore.

Speaker 1

02:10

Oh, that's right, Iran. There's no more being babies anymore. We're done wearing pull-ups and going tinkle in our Oshkosh.

Speaker 1

02:16

We can put our own store in our juice box, thank you very much, because we are big boys and we have shoes with laces and also a bike that has Spider-Man on it that our Uncle Jim got us for Christmas, because we are big boys and there's no more being babies anymore. No more. And look, make no mistake, this deal dying could have huge lasting consequences, which makes it a little odd that nobody is really paying much attention to the fact that on May 12th, if Trump doesn't feel like this deal has been fixed to his liking, he may refuse to waive a key sanction which could threaten the entire thing. So tonight, let's look at the Iran deal.

Speaker 1

02:51

What it is, why Trump hates it so much, and what's likely to happen if he kills it. And to start, it probably would help to know just a little of the history between the U.S. And Iran, which has been fraught, to put it mildly. Here is a ludicrously brief recap.

Speaker 1

03:05

In 1953, the CIA helped orchestrate a coup to depose Iran's democratically elected prime minister, replacing him with the Shah, who was friendly to the U.S. And to whom, funny story, we supplied weapons and a nuclear reactor. The Shah was overthrown in a revolution in 1979, and dozens of American diplomats were held hostage. Eventually, the Ayatollah Khomeini took power, converting the country to an Islamic theocracy.

Speaker 1

03:26

That is an insultingly brief history of the last 60 years alone. And there is a lot that I've left out there, but if you do want to learn more, just subscribe to my new podcast, Talking Tehran, with John Oliver and James Van Der Beek. Now, here's just a small taste of it.

Speaker 4

03:41

Let's pick up where we left off. With the privatization of state-owned enterprises in Iran...

Speaker 1

03:45

You're talking about the work of Rafsanjani.

Speaker 4

03:47

No. No, I'm not talking about that, John. You do this every fucking time. I'm talking about the underappreciated roles of moderates like Mehdi Bazargan.

Speaker 1

03:55

Oh, please, Van Der Beek, you're thumping on again about moderates like Mehdi Bazargan.

Speaker 4

04:00

Shut up, shut up.

Speaker 1

04:01

They never got the credit

Speaker 4

04:02

they deserve. Rafsanjani was a glorious... Oh, Rafsanjani

Speaker 1

04:06

was the glue that kept the whole thing together. How dare you?

Speaker 4

04:09

Without the backing of moderates, he was nothing.

Speaker 1

04:11

You shut up.

Speaker 4

04:11

We need you now for MailChimp right now, okay?

Speaker 1

04:14

Okay.

Speaker 4

04:15

John, do you send a lot of mass emails?

Speaker 1

04:17

It's a pretty good podcast. It's pretty good. And look, if you didn't know that James Van Der Beek was an expert in Iranian history, expand your expectations of what people are capable of.

Speaker 1

04:27

But the point is, in many Americans' minds, Iran's image is now reduced to a place where U.S. Flags are set on fire and where there are chance of death to America. And the truth is, that is still part of Iranian political culture. Much of the power in the country is held by conservative clerics who force religious compliance at home and pursue an aggressive foreign policy abroad.

Speaker 1

04:46

They are widely believed to be supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and are a major funder of the terrorist group Hezbollah. And the current Ayatollah is still saying stuff like this. -♪

Speaker 4

04:57

Inshallah betrothed... ♪ -♪ By God's favor and grace...

Speaker 1

05:01

♪

Speaker 4

05:01

nothing called the Zionist regime will exist in the region by 25 years from now.

Speaker 1

05:06

Okay, so it's not the most important part there, but the country's name is Israel, not the Zionist regime. If you're gonna make appalling threats against a nation, at least get their name right. I'm sure that you would not like it if I called Iran Old Papi Khamenei's Palace of Persians, would you?

Speaker 1

05:22

No, you wouldn't like it. You wouldn't like it at all. But the truth is, that is only part of the picture of Iran. There's also a large, educated, relatively liberal middle class, among whom opinions of America tend to be considerably more positive.

Speaker 1

05:35

You can see it in the fact that they have knockoffs of American restaurants there called Mashed Donalds, ZFC, and Pizza Hat, which, yeah, are obviously direct ripoffs of Marsh Donalds, ZFG, and Pizza How. And Iran's current president, Hassan Rouhani, is relatively moderate by Iranian standards, even going so far as to tweet a few years back, I wish all Jews, especially Iranian Jews, a blessed Rosh Hashanah. And when an Iranian leader begins a statement with the words, I wish all Jews, and actually sticks the landing, you kind of have to hand it to him there. And pro-Western views are particularly pronounced among young people born after the revolution.

Speaker 1

06:16

In fact, a few years back, Thrasher magazine, my favorite skateboard magazine, did a story on Iranian skateboarding culture, which has thrived despite 1 considerable obstacle.

Speaker 5

06:27

Iran is under sanctions right now, and it's really hard for them to import anything from the West. This kind of put the skaters in a position where they were actually forced to figure out a way to make their own boards. We saw 1 kid skating a board made of solid steel, which is kind of crazy.

Speaker 5

06:45

It's an Iranian skateboard, and it's made of metal. Solid. This is going to last forever.

Speaker 1

06:53

Sick deck, brah. Although, if it was me, I'd double up on the grip tape on my top sheet so I don't slam when I go sketchy on a nose grind. I do hope you enjoyed that joke, because it took 1 of my writers 50 fucking minutes on the skateboarding Wikipedia page to research it.

Speaker 1

07:09

But that's true. But look, those sanctions are actually 1 of the reasons that the Iran deal happened in the first place. Because after the international community discovered that Iran was secretly building up a nuclear program, it was understandably concerned and imposed crippling sanctions affecting every part of Iran's economy, from oil to plane parts to banking and investment. 1 key motivator in Iran coming to the table to negotiate was relaxing some of those sanctions.

Speaker 1

07:37

And they got that. All the partners in this deal, the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, the EU, Russia, and China, agreed to lift specific sanctions on Iran. So that's what Iran got out of this deal. I guess the question is, what did we get?

Speaker 1

07:51

And the answer to that is, quite a lot.

Speaker 6

07:54

It requires Iran not to enrich uranium to weapons grade for 15 years, to reduce its number of operating nuclear centrifuges from 19,000 to just over 5,000, and to increase the time it would take to make a bomb from a few months to a year.

Speaker 1

08:08

It's true. And those were big concessions from Iran. The deal required them to reduce their stockpile of uranium by 98 percent, and mandated that they would not enrich uranium above 3.67 percent, which is significantly lower than the 90 percent needed for weapons.

Speaker 1

08:24

And trying to make a bomb at under 4 percent enrichment is like trying to get drunk off a single can of PBR. You can't. It cannot be done. There's no fucking way to do it.

Speaker 1

08:35

Not unless you're a gerbil, and even then, only if you're drinking on an empty stomach. -♪ Ooh... ♪ -And look, that's not all. The deal also had strict conditions for monitoring and verification to make sure that they were in compliance.

Speaker 1

08:48

And if they weren't, we could snap those sanctions back. It was a pretty good deal, and yet, many felt it was too generous to Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu called it a bad mistake of historic proportions, and here in the U.S., there was hard opposition with ads like this.

Speaker 4

09:04

Hey, hey, bud. How are you? Good.

Speaker 1

09:07

How was your day?

Speaker 4

09:08

Good. Hey, sweetheart. I'm starving. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 4

09:13

How was your day? Good. Good.

Speaker 1

09:15

-♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪� Let's do it. Let's do it. Wow.

Speaker 1

09:26

That is a hostile way to make your point. There is only 1 ad that you could completely justify being interrupted by a nuclear explosion, and it is this 1. -♪

Speaker 4

09:36

1877, hundred years... -♪ -♪ ...KRF... -♪ -♪ ...KRF...

Speaker 1

09:42

-♪ Good. Good. I'm glad those children are dead.

Speaker 1

09:49

But... But for all the talk over here about Iran getting everything they wanted, you should know that Iranian hardliners were furious, arguing that they had given up way too much. Iran's lead negotiator was this guy, Javad Zarif, and some chilling cell phone footage emerged of him being confronted by a member of the Iranian parliament. And just listen to what was said to him.

Speaker 1

10:14

-... -... Ouch. If ISIS comes to our country, you will be the first to take the blow." That is both scary and honestly, not really consistent with how ISIS operates.

Speaker 1

10:36

They generally don't come to a country and say, okay, nobody dies until we find that first guy. Nobody kills anyone until that first guy takes the first blow. We do this in order, or we don't do it at all. We're ISIS, let's not come off like crazy people.

Speaker 1

10:53

But despite all that opposition, on both sides, the deal was signed, which was a huge achievement, or, as Donald Trump would put it, a complete disaster.

Speaker 7

11:02

I've studied this issue in great detail. I would say, actually, greater by far than anybody else. --AUDIENCE LAUGHS, APPLAUDS --Believe me.

Speaker 7

11:13

Oh, believe me. --AUDIENCE LAUGHS, APPLAUDS --And it's a bad deal.

Speaker 1

11:19

Okay, so let's be absolutely clear here. Donald Trump has never studied anything in great detail. If you asked him what color his wife's eyes are, he would say 34D, but firm.

Speaker 1

11:32

So what specifically does Trump think is wrong with this deal? Well, he has a number of complaints, and the first has to do with monitoring their nuclear facilities.

Speaker 2

11:40

In terms of, you know, surveillance, they have the right to self-inspect. How about that? On their major, the most dangerous, they can self-inspect.

Speaker 1

11:50

Okay, so that's just not true. They cannot self-inspect. The deal allows for regular monitoring of all declared nuclear sites, 1 of which even has 24-hour video surveillance, And it's done by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog, which has already confirmed 10 successive times that Iran is complying with the deal.

Speaker 1

12:09

And fun fact, if Iran complies just once more, they win a free meal at Pizza Hat. So, that's just An extra little fun incentive for them to stay in line. And that is not the only thing that Trump gets wrong about the deal's inspection process.

Speaker 2

12:23

How about this? We see something wrong or we think there's something wrong, so we have to wait 24 days before we go in. But before the 24-day start, there's a whole procedure.

Speaker 2

12:34

So who knows how long it could be? Could be 6 months.

Speaker 1

12:36

Okay, so what he's talking about there is the fact that while, again, inspectors have constant access to their declared sites, they also get access to any other site, military or civilian, where they suspect undeclared nuclear activity. Now, Iran can push back on those suspicions, but once the IAEA demands access, Iran has just 24 days max to let them in. And it is a pretty tall order to completely clean up every trace of an isotope with a half-life of 710 million years in just 24 days.

Speaker 1

13:10

Think about it. That's not even long enough to adequately clean your apartment after you rent it out on Airbnb. How is there jizz inside my piano? What monster would do this?

Speaker 1

13:20

This isn't an accident, it must be why they wanted a piano. But... But 1 of Trump's other complaints is that some parts of this deal expire in 10 or 15 years, And as he sees it, that leads to an obvious problem.

Speaker 7

13:35

The bigger problem is that they can keep the terms and still get the bomb by simply running out the clock.

Speaker 1

13:43

Again, that is simply not true. They can't keep the terms and get the bomb. The terms expressly forbid them from doing that.

Speaker 1

13:50

What Iran could do, in theory, is wait for parts of the deal to expire in 10 years, then it could ramp up its nuclear program, getting it closer to a bomb. But here's the thing, if the deal blows up, Iran could start doing that right now in 0 years. And 0 is less than 10. Trust us, we ran the numbers on this ourselves.

Speaker 1

14:11

I spent a week at Cambridge speaking with the Location Chair of Mathematics, Michael Cates, and I feel virtually certain 0 is less than 10. Also, you should know, before the deal, Iran had enough enriched uranium to eventually create 8 to 10 bombs, which remember, they gave up, meaning they currently have enough for 0 bombs, which again, is less than 10. I cannot stress enough the extent to which 0 is less than 10. It just is.

Speaker 1

14:37

We have to agree on that, or we're all fucked. And look, it is important to remember, this deal isn't just between the U.S. And Iran. There are multiple countries involved, none of whom are anxious to change its terms.

Speaker 1

14:49

Even Britain's Boris Johnson, a man who looks like what would happen if Draco Malfoy got an MBA and developed a drinking problem. Even he thinks a renegotiation is a non-starter.

Speaker 8

15:01

I don't think anybody has come up with a better idea. And I think it's incumbent on those who oppose the JCPOA really to come up with that better solution.

Speaker 1

15:12

Exactly. You can't just be against something without having any plan for what comes next. Trump is like a cat on an airplane trying to escape from its carrier. Okay, but if you get out, then what?

Speaker 1

15:24

Do you have a cat-sized parachute in there with you? What's your fucking plan here? And Obviously, I'm not gonna say cat-sized parachute without showing you a cat in a parachute. That is just a given.

Speaker 1

15:36

I wouldn't do that to you. And look, while Trump has articulated broadly what he wants, some of his demands are complete non-starters. He wants a ban on ballistic missile testing, unconstrained access to any military sites, and no expiration of any clause in the agreement ever. And if those are deal breakers for him, this deal is broken.

Speaker 1

15:56

And while you would hope that someone would talk him round, Trump has surrounded himself with Iran hawks. His nominee for Secretary of State is Mike Pompeo, who's reportedly said of Iran, we know they're cheating, we're just not seeing it. Which is a hell of a statement from a guy who gives rim jobs to gorillas. And, sure, sure, sure, No 1 has ever seen Mike Pompeo giving a rim job to a gorilla, but that's how we know he does it.

Speaker 1

16:22

Think about it. And even more worrisome is John Bolton, his new national security advisor. Bolton is a far-right conservative who Donald Trump had originally considered for the job in 2016, but reportedly hesitated because of his Walrus-style mustache. And I've got to say, I agree with Trump on that 1.

Speaker 1

16:41

That mustache is a huge problem. He looks like he's possessed by the ghost of Borat. The point is, the point here is, Bolton has long been a critic of the Iran deal.

Speaker 9

16:52

I think the deal is inherently flawed. I think it's a strategic debacle for the United States. You can always tinker around the edges, and the question is whether putting lipstick on a pig is really gonna make a difference here.

Speaker 1

17:05

Come on! This deal is preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons. It's not a pig with lipstick.

Speaker 1

17:11

Besides, pigs don't need lipstick to look beautiful, you superficial arsehole! Pigs are beautiful just the way they are, and they don't need to conform to your completely unrealistic standards of farm animal beauty. Hashtag swine is sexy. Hashtag feminism.

Speaker 1

17:26

--CHEERING AND APPLAUSE- And look, Bolton has gone much further than that. Remember that ad with the exploding family? His group made that ad. And if you're wondering, well, what's his alternative to an Iran deal?

Speaker 1

17:38

It can't be war with Iran, can it? Well, just watch this speech that he gave to a group of Iranian dissidents in Paris last year.

Speaker 9

17:46

The declared policy of the United States of America should be the overthrow of the Mullahs' regime in Tehran. The behavior and the objectives of the regime are not going to change, and therefore, the only solution is to change the regime itself.

Speaker 1

18:08

-♪ ♪ -♪

Speaker 9

18:12

And that's... And that's why, before 2019, we here will celebrate in Tehran. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

18:21

-♪ Hey! ♪ -♪ Hey! ♪ Holy shit!

Speaker 1

18:24

To my ears, that is the National Security Advisor calling for the invasion of Iran before the end of the year, which is so flagrantly horrific, your brain can barely absorb it. It's like the barefoot contessa announcing that she's going to murder and cook her husband, Jeffrey, before 2019. At that point, she's been so obvious, if no 1 actively stops her, It's partly on us. So look, unless Congress or our European allies figure out something they can sell to Trump as a fix, it seems that Trump is going to reimpose sanctions on May 12th.

Speaker 1

18:55

And if he does that, this deal could collapse. And the damage of that would be long-term and potentially irreversible. Just set aside the fact that you would alienate a whole generation of younger Iranians who support this deal. Just think about what this would do to America's credibility.

Speaker 1

19:09

Why would North Korea consider signing a nuclear agreement with us if we just broke the agreement we signed only 3 years ago with Iran. And if this deal dies and Iran resumes its nuclear weapons program, it could then start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. And the problem here is, I can't offer you much hope. There is not really a write-your-congressman solution to this.

Speaker 1

19:32

We could be in serious trouble. Because 2 of Trump's top advisors are, like him, dead set against this deal. And they're getting backup from Sean Hannity, who showed the president watches so much, advisors refer to him as the shadow chief of staff. Hannity hates this deal, too.

Speaker 1

19:49

So there is not really a way for us to get a moderating voice into this conversation, short of buying time on Hannity's show this week and running an ad like this. -♪♪♪♪ Hi! Hey, bud,

Speaker 4

20:02

how are you? Good!

Speaker 1

20:04

How was

Speaker 4

20:04

your day? Good. Hey!

Speaker 4

20:06

Hi. Hey, Dad. Dinner is ready. Starving.

Speaker 4

20:10

Wow, delicious. Hey there, Donald.

Speaker 10

20:13

I'm sorry to interrupt your supper. I'm a cowboy, don't like pain when I calf, and I'm here to tell you the Iran deal may not be perfect, but it helps restrict Iran's ability to start making a bomb for at least 10 years. You blow up the deal, and that turns into 0 years.

Speaker 10

20:29

And If I've learned 1 thing from all these years of cowboying and caffing, it's that 0 is way less than 10.

Speaker 1

20:38

That's correct.

Speaker 10

20:39

Also, you really want to listen to a guy with a mustache like this? Don't do it, Donald. Don't do it.

Speaker 10

20:49

Hey, does anyone smell gas?

Speaker 4

20:52

Oh, my God, there's still... -♪ ♪ -♪ Ah!

Speaker 1

20:55

-♪ ♪ -♪

Speaker 5

20:57

Oh! -♪ ♪ -♪ Oh!

Speaker 1

21:00

That ad is scheduled to run during Hannity in the D.C. Area on Fox News this week, where it will presumably confuse a lot of people. And I'm not saying that it's gonna change anything, but at least we will know that we tried.

Speaker 1

21:12

♪♪

Speaker 4

21:15

you