Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade.

You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown.

The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account.

Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.

We're going to do a quick little review here and I'll squeeze in another approach to using some of the PDA arrays I've already taught and how we can build a model around it.

That'll come at the end of the video here.

For now, let's take a quick look at the high time frame on the US dollar index.

Last time we talked, I mentioned that we would be looking for potential run up into here.

This was the buy side liquidity pool I mentioned.

We've seen that and then at a later time we might see this actually happen.

We haven't been looking for lower prices on dollar.

There is a small little volume imbalance right in there.

And then obviously the buy side resides here.

So a really strong run below these relative equal lows.

Sell side liquidity taken, fair value gap traded up and continuously moved into the buy side.

So dollar is showing its underlying strength and it's still going to put intermediate term long term pressure on euro dollar wanting to go lower and pound dollar wanting to go lower.

Speaking of Euro, here is the daily chart for Euro Dollar and I mentioned the inversion fair value gap.

We traded up into that, look at the bodies again, respecting consequent and quotient, which is the midpoint of any gap.

Mark broke it lower taking the sell side out here then we moved aggressively in this direction towards the sell side throughout the entirety of this week.

It would have been nice to see this trade up into this small little gap here.

But the failure to get up there is indicative of heaviness.

Heaviness meaning that the market is likely to go lower and again attack that sell side.

So with higher dollar prices we are going to stick with the idea of looking for lower prices for Fiber and Fiber is just a nickname for Eurodollar.

Okay cable or pound dollar, see we have a inversion fair value gap here, the market has been breaking lower, next draw on liquidity still remains at the sell side liquidity here.

This 1 we chipped up into this small little fair value gap there.

This is institutional or full entry drill, where it goes into a partial, but less than half of a fair value gap there and sells off.

We have sell side resting below here and we have the sell side below here.

So we're maintaining a bearish stance still for British Pound.

So if you guys appreciate or like these longer term, you know, bias based ideas for Forex, I'm not going to be drawing your attention to the smaller timeframes because I don't think that it is something that we should be doing right now.

It's something for you to do on your own analysis.

But from the higher time frame, I'm just lending my experience to give you the bias and you can see pretty much it's been delivering like gangbusters.

So if you like that kind of stuff and you want me to continue, just give this video a thumbs up.

E-mini S&P futures contract September delivery daily chart.

And we just fell short yesterday going into this discount fair value gap.

So just got really, really close, but not quite getting into it.

We have this buy side imbalance, sell side inefficiency between this candle's low and this candle's high.

That's denoting that buy side imbalance, sell side inefficiency.

And this red line is consequent encroachment or midpoint between this candle's low and this candle's high.

So all this big movement up here, it's buy side imbalance, sell side inefficiency.

So it needs to see what lower price is delivered.

And this price movement here is, in my opinion, what we're having to deal with on the lower timeframe.

So if you watched how we traded on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this week for index futures.

Unless you were ultra short term, like 1 minute scalping, 5 minute scalping, you probably experience a lot of difficulty in terms of navigating the ebb and flow of intraday price action.

So whenever we have these kind of like bookends, think of it like that, okay?

We have strong opinionated reasons that we can make the case for higher prices and for lower prices.

And when we have that, everything makes treating with a great deal of precision that would otherwise be apparent in all time frames, it kind of reduces it down to a very infrequent, well, at least you may observe that it will be infrequent.

We've seen that on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, now the latter part of Wednesday, not the first part of Wednesday, but the afternoon of Wednesday, Thursday and then Friday's trading.

So It's gonna have to move outside of this range definitively for me.

So in other words, it's got to either trade above the buy side and balance sell side efficiencies high, or it's got to trade below the buy side and balance sell side efficiencies low.

While we're in here, I will not be interested in taking any trades for E-mini S&P.

This candle is low, this candle is high, and the shaded area is denoting that.

On the hourly chart, you can see how we had a fairway gap here, institutional order for entry drill, which is a partial entry, but just falling short of half the gap.

Breaks down, over time does the same thing here.

Look at all this range bound trading right in there.

And then we break lower, small in a range, break lower, small in a range, and displacement to the downside, trading to the low of the inefficiency or the buy side and bounce side inefficiency on the daily chart.

Remember the blue lines denote that big singular up close candle and in the red level was the midpoint of that and that shaded area is the fair value gap on the daily chart.

We trade up to consequent encroachment here, roll over and just fell short of trading into that inefficiency on the daily chart and sweeping below this low.

So it felt just short of reaching into that and then we had this gnarly Thursday and Friday trading range for E-mini S&P returning back to consequent encroachment.

15-minute time frame again you can see how we had Friday's trading, Thursday's trading, in the afternoon retracing back up into consequent encroachment.

So a really nice sell-off here in the morning which was really easy to see that.

This right here, you have to be extremely nimble and know exactly what you're looking for.

Otherwise you can get chopped up in here, over trade or do a lot of things that will otherwise undermine your growth or create drawdown for your account.

Until we leave this range, I'm not interested in touching it.

So if we stay within this when we open on Sunday and trade into it on Monday, my hands will be away from all asset classes because my only interest right now in trading is the index futures, S&P and NASDAQ.

We have the buy side and balance sell side inefficiency defined by this candle's high, this candle's low, midpoint is consequent encroachment, And price will have to leave this buy side and sell side efficiency either higher or lower before I'm interested in trading.

Because we had this run up, I like the idea of potentially trading down to 15126.5.

I want to see that happen because we've seen it happen for ES.

The run up, we've seen a partial decline which we'll look at that and I called that level real-time before it actually is delivered on Thursday, right on Twitter.

Or we could rally higher and come back out of this by-sign balance on-sign efficiency and then resume going higher and reach for the by-sign here and completely close in this inefficiency over here in the form of a SIBI.

So because the analysis is conflicted, meaning that we can range bound in here for a little while and still deliver to that 15, 126 and a half.

That's what I'm kind of expecting to happen, but I'm not excited about taking any trades in here until we definitively leave this buy-sign-and-bail sell-sign efficiency.

The reason why is because even though I like the idea of going short, I could be wrong and it may be just accumulating in here to go higher because this market, stock market is absolutely rigged.

And the other time They're propping this market up for political reasons.

There's no reason for, and there's no justification for the shares being at the levels they are for stocks right now.

So because we're seeing conflicted both sides of the narrative on the higher time frame that forces your hand to be a intraday scalper.

You know short-term trading, swing trading, you have to be very very precise you get really 1 entry and that's it.

So In a very small 1 minute time frame, you'll have a little bit more opportunities to navigate, but you have to have experience and be nimble.

I'm not terribly excited about going into next week until we leave this buy side and sell side inefficiency.

On the hourly chart, you can see we ran buy side here into a bearish order block.

We broke down bearish order block here, displacement to the downside, swept the sell side here, entered the buy side and balance sell side inefficiency, rolled over after institutional orderful entry drill here, which is just a partial entry into this SIBI.

I'll try to keep the charts clean so that way I have less to talk about to get through this chart discussion quicker for you this evening.

We rolled through, went through half of the daily by sign and balance cell sign efficiency, which is the consequent encroachment level, that blue line, which is just midpoint between the lower level and the higher level of the daily by sign and balance cell sign efficiency.

That 1 singular big green candle on the daily chart, that's the reference points here for it on the hourly chart.

So we rolled over and I gave on Twitter, on Thursday I said to have 15, 185.25 and 15, 175 noted on your chart.

And we went down, the bodies respected both of those levels.

So there's a bias on a balance, sell sign efficiency between this candle is low, this candle is high with this 1 big candle.

So that's where that 15, 175 level came from.

The 15, 185 and a quarter level which is here is the daily bias on a balance, sell sign efficiency 25% quadrant.

Okay, so in other words, if you take this level here and this level here and divide it in equal parts, 4 equal parts, half is here, so halfway between this level and here is this.

So it's the lower quadrant, 25% level of here.

This is not, that's not quarters theory, by the way.

Right away, I know some of you think, oh, he's teaching quarters theory.

I'm looking at an inefficiency and I'm grading that, just like I teach how to grade a price swing in my core content.

So these are all algorithmic signatures that price will respect and adhere to.

So it's important to know what they are and how to apply it to your charts and then anticipate these types of responses.

Market rallies off of that on Thursday, comes back in and retrades back to the consequent encroachment midpoint and then sends us back up to the high end of the daily buy side of the mill and sell side efficiency high.

On the 15 minute timeframe, you can see how again on Friday and on Thursday just a really gnarly trading range, I mean you can Grow very frustrated trying to trade this if you're trying to anticipate a follow-through either high or lower You have to be very very nimble and look at the lower time frames.

If you get a winner, stop for the day or the session and be done and try not to force your hand too much.

All right, so Here's the 1 minute candlestick chart for the NASDAQ.

And I'm going to teach you something that employs my inversion fair value gap.

Now, before I get into this, there's a couple of points I want to make, because there are a couple romper room mentors out there that will tell you that a fair value gap is something that is simply a support or resistance level in a lower time frame.

This little area in here where 1 single candle pass up to the upside, that's a bisonic balance cell sign of inefficiency.

So it's not had any overlapping with any other candles after it formed on the downside.

So It's part of this swing low, part of an expected re-delivery between the high of the daily buy sign of balance sell sign efficiency, which is this level up here, and the low of that same daily buy sign of balance sell sign efficiency.

So if we are up in the upper portion of that range, because here's the consequent encroachment between this level and this level, and we're seeing the market start to break down like it's doing here, This inversion fair value gap, this is part of what many of you ask, how do you know which fair value gap is gonna be an inversion fair value gap?

How do you know which fair value gap to use?

I'm employing a lot of different things, time and price.

I'm using institutional market structure, not your classic higher high, lower low crap, because that's infancy.

That's too myopic, you need to know what you're looking for.

In the grand scheme of things, price was already working its way down into and towards this re-delivery on the buy side of balance, sell side efficiency low.

So if we are looking at this price leg running higher with the expectation that we're gonna see it roll over this becoming a fulcrum point, high to low projected down, that gives us a reasonable expectation to see it reach into a discount range, which would be half of the range between this high and that low, which makes the daily buy side and balance sell side efficiency.

If you're first time watching this, I already said enough to completely confuse you.

But I promise you, if you take a few times to watch this video, the only thing I'm stating is all of this price run here going down is just simply trying to get down to this level here because it was 1 singular candle on the daily chart that went up.

So the market will efficiently deliver sell-side delivery, which is not sell-side liquidity, sell-side delivery is just the market goes lower.

In other words, it's offering price between the range high of the daily buy side and sell side efficiency at 15, 361.5 and the low of that daily candle buy side and sell side efficiency at 15, 126.5.

So the only thing I'm stating here is if we were to take that range, which is the daily candle, and I'll explain again what I'm showing you here on the daily chart, but for now, conceptually just imagine if half of the range from that price level here and that price level here, half of that range is here, anything at that price level or higher is a premium.

If we're bearish, we really wanna be selling short up here with the expectation that it's gonna aim for something down in the lower half and ultimately perfectly delivered to this lower level 15, 126.5 it need not do that, so what levels are we looking for because we're not dealing with zones, well what's the lower quadrant, lower quadrant price level is here 15, 185.25 Half of the range on the buy-sign-and-balance-sell-sign efficiency on the daily chart, which is this high and that low that's in purple, half of it's here.

Half of the half point in the low is the lower quadrant point.

So that's why I was saying on Thursday to have these levels noted.

And then you have the Tuesday, August 29th, 2023, 10 a.m.

1 hour by sign and balance, self-sign efficiency low.

And I already mentioned that before we dropped down the lower timeframes.

So everything I'm saying here, I've literally pointed to and referred to what it is in this very video.

So you don't have to go anywhere else searching for anything.

It's just a matter of listening to what I'm saying here and then finding it in a chart and also following along in the narrative as why I'm Interested in this very fair value gap at all because we're in a Premium I'm expected to see this price like rollover.

It already broke below it here so it rolls through I'm not interested in selling short there because I know that time is a bigger factor so when price is running up like this I'm not trying to chase that I'm not trying to be a an early participant I want to see price get to 08:00.

So the market trades back down through it again.

So every time you see a little rectangle here, the neophyte, the first time viewer, or someone just has a superiority complex, they'll say that I'm teaching supply and demand.

It's absolutely not, because I'm looking through all of this to go right back to that specific candle right there and it's specific price levels.

Now, because of time, I'm expecting it to have a better influence over price.

1 more time it comes back up and hits it again.

No, it's stopping because it's referring right back to that price point right there.

So if this is a fair value gap and I was bullish, I'd be interested in buying it when it was going down into a here.

Or if it went down through it and it came back above it, now I treat it as a reclaimed discount array.

I'm looking through these candlesticks to a specific PD array, but I'm applying narrative, which is a very hard thing to teach because it's learned conceptually by experience, seen over and over and over again.

That's why I'm trying to tell you that what some of you are asking for is a one-shot, one-kill video where it literally answers all your questions in 1 visit, 1 sitting, 1 view, and that's it, nothing is like that.

Okay, but this approach to using the inversion fair value gap, because otherwise it would be bullish here, it's not, because we're in a premium.

I wanna be short, I wanna be looking for shorts, because I expect that daily chart, that big bullish green candle is going to be redelivered to the downside.

And the first level I'm looking for is the halfway point and the quadrant, the lower 25%, which is here.

And then dug into the hourly chart by centimillion sales sign-on efficiency, which is what I mentioned earlier before we got into this part of this video.

That's where those 2 levels came from when I quoted on Twitter before we got down to it.

The way that this Inversion Fair Value gap is being implemented is my model, my deuce.

My deuce is a slang or nickname used for the M2 machine gun.

And the way I classify things, I have 81 different PD arrays.

And there are several things that I can do with each 1 of those PV arrays.

This is simply an inversion fair value gap.

How I use that fair value gap is a model.

And if we have a inefficiency as outlined here between the daily buy side and sell side efficiency high and low, We're bearish, we're looking for lower prices.

We get this market structure in agreement, and then time of price, we're expecting an 8.30 delivery.

We can get in here and use this and get ahead of, yes, get ahead of and enter before the news.

It's like an x-ray view, tips your hand or tips its hand to you and tells you this is what it's like to do.

Then you have the Inefficiency here, it trades up into it and at the delivery of 830 news, and then we see it run away on the employment numbers.

Trading down into the lower 25% quadrant between this low and this high.

Lower quarter or quadrant levels here, trades to here and then trades to the 15, 175 level.

And then ultimately we see it go higher from there.

So that inversion fair value gap, within the context of expecting it to trade lower, best case scenario, being that low of the daily buy, sell, and demand, and sell sign efficiency for NASDAQ, but needing it not to do that to find profitability, which is first partial would be here at consequent encroachment and you'd let it run some more to get down to the lower quadrant.

And that level, you want to take a partial and then if you can get down to another discount array, which was in close proximity, which is only 10 handles away, which was that hourly.

Buy-Sign-and-Balance sell-side efficiency is low on this date and time on your hourly chart.

You can go back and look at it when you're in charts.

I wanna take you back up again, just know that this is what I'm showing you here.

This range, how I'm employing the inversion fair value gap there here for mydeuce.

MyDeuce is a model that you can use a inversion fair value gap when you are expecting price to run right back down a inefficiency that was buy side and balance, sell side inefficiency.

This can be reversed when you have a sell side and balance, buy side inefficiency, and you're expecting price to go higher.

The inversion fair value gap here would be something after a low, and then it would trade back down to it and then send it higher.

So everything here is just completely reversed.

And I know if you're brand new to my stuff, I'm sure I'm quite certain you're probably confused right now and you just have to study it.

But really what I'm saying here is this level here and this level here on the hourly chart is this, this 1 singular candle.

And what I'm saying is on Thursday, I was anticipating the run down into at least the lower quadrant, the lower 25% between this and this, which are these levels here respectively.

We expect lower prices to be delivered the same way, just going back down to re-deliver over the inefficiency here.

It was buy side delivery, but now it needs sell side delivery because it's inefficient in that regard because there's no other candle between this candles low and that candles high only 1 candle went higher and that range defined by that candle here this low and that high needs to have efficient delivery that can only happen by having price go back down inside this entire range.

If you have a inversion fair value gap and you're bearish and you're expecting a news report and it's tipped its hand to you saying, okay, we are likely to break lower in market structure and lower timeframes, we can anticipate this drop.

And zoomed in inside that premium to discount.

My deuce, second opportunity to get into it again.

It breaks aggressively, inefficiency once more at 830 employment numbers, runs aggressively.

Partial here, partial best case scenario would be if it would deliver to the low of the hourly, but I mentioned the real time, I said, take your profits, don't be greedy.

And then we seen it go a little bit lower than my objective on that particular day, but never got to the low of the daily buy and sell efficiency being this level here.

So I'm certain it's a lot for you to digest, but every 1 of my PDA arrays, you can apply it to specific elements of market structure and how you anticipate price delivering.

And you can plug and play each 1 of these PDA arrays with the expectation that the model will deliver under a specific premise.

We're expecting this level here to this level here be delivered with downside delivery, in other words, sell-side delivery, as price was going lower.

It's going to very specific price levels.

And if I'm going to use this inversion fair value gap, I can use it in the context of my deuce.

My deuce is simply a model utilizing an inversion fair value gap.

So that PD array, it's an advanced version or application of inversion fair value gap, but it takes you right back to the core context of where are you in price?

And are you gonna short-term premium or short-term discount?

If we're bearish and we're in premium, we can anticipate price reaching down into a discount, but not some random level, very specific levels.

And it need not go to the best case scenario, which would be the low, which I still hold true that I suspect at some point, maybe next week, that we'll try to reach down here until I'm proven wrong.

But the idea is I expected to trade down here because the E-mini S&P has already traded it to its respective buy side and balance side efficiency where it's really sharp.

See all The Inner Circle Trader transcripts on Youtube

ICT Mentorship 2023 - September 08, 2023 Review & ICT Ma Deuce Model