Discussion on the current state of the crypto market, predictions for the future, and the impact of recent news on market behavior. Analysis of the potential impact of the ETH ETF and comparison with the BTC ETF, with differing opinions on its performance. Comparison of the narrative and mindshare of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) among traditional finance (TradFi) users, and its potential impact on market behavior. Discussion on the impact of good news on market behavior and the potential reasons for the market's inability to react positively to positive news. Analysis of upcoming events such as elections and rate cuts, and speculation on their potential impact on the market, along with discussions on market sentiment and fatigue.

Market Analysis and Predictions - Discussion on the current state of the crypto market, predictions for the future, and the impact of recent news on market behavior. Impact of ETH ETF Analysis - Analysis of the potential impact of the ETH ETF and comparison with the BTC ETF, with differing opinions on its performance. Narrative and Mindshare of BTC vs. ETH - Comparison of the narrative and mindshare of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) among traditional finance (TradFi) users, and its potential impact on market behavior. Impact of Good News on Market Behavior - Discussion on the impact of good news on market behavior and the potential reasons for the market's inability to react positively to positive news. Upcoming Events and Market Speculation - Analysis of upcoming events such as elections and rate cuts, and speculation on their potential impact on the market, along with discussions on market sentiment and fatigue.

Transition of market attention from NFTs to meme coins, with observations on market dynamics, liquidity, and the potential future of NFTs. Comparison of market positioning, funding, and product focus between Yugo Labs and Pudgey Penguins. Contrasting approaches and strategies of UgoLabs and Pudgey Penguins, focusing on funding, direction, and product diversification. Exploration of UgoLabs' cultural-first approach and NFT experiments, including the launch of Dukie Dash and an NFT-only club. Comparison of Yugo Labs' value dilution through new collections and Pudgey Penguins' focused branding strategy. Discussion on the potential for NFTs to compete against Disney and the concept of tokenized attention. Exploration of the rise of layer 2 solutions and the comparison of Ethereum and Solana in the DeFi space. Discussion on the proliferation of layer 2 solutions and the potential for successful general-purpose layer twos.

Shift from NFTs to Meme Coins - Transition of market attention from NFTs to meme coins, with observations on market dynamics, liquidity, and the potential future of NFTs. Comparison of Yugo Labs and Pudgey Penguins - Comparison of market positioning, funding, and product focus between Yugo Labs and Pudgey Penguins. Directional Differences: UgoLabs vs. Pudgey Penguins - Contrasting approaches and strategies of UgoLabs and Pudgey Penguins, focusing on funding, direction, and product diversification. Cultural Influence and NFT Experiments - Exploration of UgoLabs' cultural-first approach and NFT experiments, including the launch of Dukie Dash and an NFT-only club. Value Dilution and Focused Branding - Comparison of Yugo Labs' value dilution through new collections and Pudgey Penguins' focused branding strategy. Competing Against Disney and Tokenized Attention - Discussion on the potential for NFTs to compete against Disney and the concept of tokenized attention. Layer 2s and Decentralized Finance - Exploration of the rise of layer 2 solutions and the comparison of Ethereum and Solana in the DeFi space. Trends in Layer 2 Solutions - Discussion on the proliferation of layer 2 solutions and the potential for successful general-purpose layer twos.

Overview of AI crypto projects, including AI-generated content and off-chain compute solutions. Exploration of AI-generated songs, videos, and the potential for tokenized attention through content creation. Discussion on the impact of social media on teenagers and the rise of AI companions as a result of decreased real-life interactions. Discusses the trend of AI girlfriends and boyfriends, tokenized AI characters, and the impact of social media on human interaction. Explores the distinction between individuals born before and after the year 2000, focusing on the impact of social media on mental health and the emergence of AI characters on chain. Examines the use of AI chatbots by OnlyFans creators, the revenue model of messaging, and the comparison with other platforms like Earn.com.

AI in the Crypto Space - Overview of AI crypto projects, including AI-generated content and off-chain compute solutions. AI-Generated Content and Tokenized Attention - Exploration of AI-generated songs, videos, and the potential for tokenized attention through content creation. Impact of Social Media on Teenagers - Discussion on the impact of social media on teenagers and the rise of AI companions as a result of decreased real-life interactions. The Rise of AI Boyfriends and Girlfriends - Discusses the trend of AI girlfriends and boyfriends, tokenized AI characters, and the impact of social media on human interaction. Generational Divide: Pre-Millennial vs. Gen Z - Explores the distinction between individuals born before and after the year 2000, focusing on the impact of social media on mental health and the emergence of AI characters on chain. The Evolution of OnlyFans and AI Chatbots - Examines the use of AI chatbots by OnlyFans creators, the revenue model of messaging, and the comparison with other platforms like Earn.com.

Highlights the growing significance of stablecoins in currency hedging and cross-border payments, especially in developing countries, and their potential to reshape the financial landscape. Discusses the tokenization of US treasuries, stocks, and real estate, and the potential impact on global accessibility to high-quality assets. Explores the evolving regulatory landscape, the approval of BTC and ETH ETFs, and the impact on market dynamics and asset dispersion. Discussion on the launching of consumer apps and the potential for a breakout app with a hundred million users. Exploring the importance of being consumer-focused rather than crypto-focused in building successful consumer apps. Observations on startups building on stable coins and the potential for a consumer app to go viral. Comparing the current stage of crypto consumer apps with historical technological shifts in the internet and AI space. Predictions for the future of AI and crypto-based consumer applications and the acceleration of technological shifts. Discussion on the evolving nature of airdrops, industrial farming, and the need for productive token distribution. Discussion on airdrops, predictions, and the potential for a startup to dethrone Polymarket on Solana. Comparison of Solana and Ethereum, market speculation, and the potential for Solana to compete against Ethereum. Analysis of TON Network, market speculation, and the challenges and potential of TON in the market. Exploration of Helium mobile services, deep-end projects, and the potential for token incentives in infrastructure installation. Discussion on on-chain and off-chain gaming, market speculation, and the potential for gaming to attract the masses.

Stablecoins: The Global Impact - Highlights the growing significance of stablecoins in currency hedging and cross-border payments, especially in developing countries, and their potential to reshape the financial landscape. Tokenization of Real-World Assets - Discusses the tokenization of US treasuries, stocks, and real estate, and the potential impact on global accessibility to high-quality assets. Regulatory Environment and ETFs - Explores the evolving regulatory landscape, the approval of BTC and ETH ETFs, and the impact on market dynamics and asset dispersion. Ramping Up Towards Consumer Apps - Discussion on the launching of consumer apps and the potential for a breakout app with a hundred million users. The Need for Consumer-Centric Crypto Apps - Exploring the importance of being consumer-focused rather than crypto-focused in building successful consumer apps. Startups Building on Stablecoins - Observations on startups building on stable coins and the potential for a consumer app to go viral. Comparison with Historical Technological Shifts - Comparing the current stage of crypto consumer apps with historical technological shifts in the internet and AI space. The Future of AI and Crypto Consumer Applications - Predictions for the future of AI and crypto-based consumer applications and the acceleration of technological shifts. Trends in Crypto Airdrops and Industrial Farming - Discussion on the evolving nature of airdrops, industrial farming, and the need for productive token distribution. Introduction to Airdrops and Predictions - Discussion on airdrops, predictions, and the potential for a startup to dethrone Polymarket on Solana. Solana vs. Ethereum and Token Market - Comparison of Solana and Ethereum, market speculation, and the potential for Solana to compete against Ethereum. Discussion on TON Network and Market Speculation - Analysis of TON Network, market speculation, and the challenges and potential of TON in the market. Exploring Helium Mobile and Deep-End Projects - Exploration of Helium mobile services, deep-end projects, and the potential for token incentives in infrastructure installation. Gaming and Conclusion - Discussion on on-chain and off-chain gaming, market speculation, and the potential for gaming to attract the masses.

- The market for crypto founders is taking a break after a rapid increase earlier in the year
- There is no clear consensus on where the market is heading next, with predictions ranging from 40k to 59k
- There is discussion about the potential impact of an ETH ETF and whether it will underperform compared to a BTC ETF
- Good news in the market has not resulted in price increases, which is seen as bearish
- The announcement of Mt. Gox distributing a large amount of Bitcoin may have spooked derivative traders and contributed to the market's current state

- The speaker discusses short-term bearish trends in the market, including Germany's government and rate cuts
- They argue that historical patterns of rate cuts may not apply this time due to the economy's strong performance
- The speaker predicts choppy market conditions leading up to the elections, with potential impact on stock prices based on S&P 500 performance
- They also mention the launch of the BLAST Foundation and the speculation surrounding its token price
- Finally, they touch on the tokenization of attention and creators, as well as the prevalence of meme coins and tokens in the market.

- The speaker discusses the saturation and fatigue in the meme coin market
- They also talk about the decline in NFT market and the potential for a comeback
- They highlight the success of Pudgy Penguins in the NFT space, contrasting it with Yugo Labs' lower social media presence
- The speaker also mentions CBB's decision to stop market making on Blur, leading to a drop in NFT prices

- Yugo Labs has a large following on Instagram and their most viewed reel has 600,000 views
- They have raised a significant amount of money and have tried various experiments, but their direction is unclear
- Pudgy Penguins, on the other hand, has a clear direction and focuses on building a strong brand and identity
- NFTs are seen as tokenized attention and Pudgy Penguins has surpassed Board Apes in popularity
- The rise of layer 2s in DeFi is another major trend in the first half of the year, with Ethereum still ahead in trading volume but Solana catching up

- The discussion revolves around the potential success of layer two blockchain solutions, with a focus on specific projects like Arbitrum, Optimism, Baze, and Blast.
- The conversation also touches on the rise of app-specific layer twos and AI projects in the crypto space.
- There is skepticism about the cost-effectiveness of decentralized GPU marketplaces, with emphasis on the importance of censorship resistance and privacy in decentralized GPU usage.

- The discussion is about the potential of decentralized GPUs for censorship resistance, decentralization, and privacy, rather than lower cost.
- There is a focus on AI crypto and the potential for AI-generated content to be monetized through crypto incentives.
- The conversation also touches on the rise of AI-generated videos and AI companions, particularly AI girlfriends, and the impact of social media on teenage depression and anxiety.

- The rise of AI girlfriends and boyfriends is attributed to people losing their ability to interact with others in real life
- AI characters are being tokenized as NFTs or fungible tokens
- OnlyFans creators are using AI chatbots for messaging, which is a major revenue generator for the platform
- The concept of time-based tokens for one-on-one conversations is discussed
- Stablecoins are seen as a significant and growing application of crypto, especially in developing countries, but is often overlooked on Crypto Twitter

- Crypto founder market taking a break after rapid increase
- Uncertainty about market direction, predictions range from 40k to 59k
- Discussion on potential impact of ETH ETF and Mt. Gox distributing Bitcoin
- Bearish market despite good news, potential impact of elections on stock prices
- Saturation and fatigue in meme coin market, decline and potential comeback of NFT market
- Success of Pudgy Penguins in NFT space, contrasted with Yugo Labs
- Rise of layer 2s in DeFi, Ethereum still ahead in trading volume but Solana catching up
- Skepticism about cost-effectiveness of decentralized GPU marketplaces
- Focus on AI crypto, AI-generated content monetization, rise of AI companions
- Tokenization of AI characters, AI chatbots for messaging on OnlyFans
- Growing significance of stablecoins in developing countries, overlooked on Crypto Twitter
"""

- Stablecoins have two main use cases: currency hedging and cross-border payments
- In countries with depreciating local currencies, stablecoins are used as a currency hedge
- Cross-border payments using stablecoins are faster and cheaper than traditional methods like Swift
- Stablecoins are being used for OTC trading and business transactions across different regions and customer types
- The shadow banking market, worth $57 trillion, could be disrupted by stablecoins
- The US's best interest is to scale USDT to extend the longevity of the US dollar as the world reserve currency
- Despite the rise of other global powers, the US dollar's reserve currency status is likely to remain for a long time, with stablecoins potentially extending its dominance.

- The US dollar's reserve currency status is unlikely to end soon, despite efforts from BRICS countries to create new currencies and stablecoins.
- Stablecoins, specifically tokenized real-world assets, such as US treasuries, stocks, and real estate, are an up and coming trend in the crypto market.
- Tokenized assets can provide access to high-quality US assets for countries with capital control or religious restrictions on trading.
- The regulatory environment for crypto is becoming more friendly, with the approval of BTC and ETH ETFs and the withdrawal of investigations into Ethereum as a security.
- The maturity of the crypto market may lead to less extreme volatility, with BTC and ETH becoming more stable assets, while other cryptocurrencies may remain more volatile.

- The ETF will create more market dispersion with two different types of market participants, Trafi and crypto natives.
- There is potential for a breakout consumer app with a hundred million users, likely to be built by founders less crypto native.
- Startups are building trading terminals focused on Gen Z and TikTok users.
- The crypto industry is in a stage similar to the dot-com bubble, with a shift towards consumer apps accruing more value than the infrastructure layer.
- The 30-year paradigm shift for technology adoption is getting shorter, with new technologies enabling faster development and viral growth.

- The discussion covers the impact of social media on product adoption and the rise of Tanya (Telegram) as a popular platform.
- Tanya has a large user base in India and the former Soviet Union, with millions of users on apps within the ecosystem.
- Despite difficulties in development, Tanya has a strong distribution platform for app developers, but is not as optimized as other blockchains.
- The conversation also touches on the current state of the cryptocurrency market and predictions for the future, including the potential decline of on-chain meme coins.

- Discussion about the popularity of meme coins and the discovery of new internet subcultures
- Predictions for the future of consumer apps and airdrop meta
- Debate about the effectiveness of airdrops in creating long-term user engagement and liquidity
- Concerns about industrial farming and the diminishing returns on investment

- The speaker discusses the competition between industrial farming and anti-civil measures in the technology industry
- They talk about the importance of using equity and tokens productively in apps and protocols
- The conversation also touches on the potential dethroning of Polymarket and the competition between Solana and Ethereum
- The discussion also includes the success of Helium in using crypto token incentives to install new infrastructure, specifically in the mobile phone service industry

- Stablecoins are used for currency hedging and cross-border payments
- They are being used for OTC trading and business transactions
- There is potential for stablecoins to disrupt the shadow banking market
- The US is interested in scaling USDT to extend the longevity of the US dollar as the world reserve currency
- Tokenized real-world assets are an up and coming trend in the crypto market
- The regulatory environment for crypto is becoming more friendly
- The crypto industry is in a stage similar to the dot-com bubble, with a shift towards consumer apps accruing more value than the infrastructure layer
- There is discussion about the impact of social media on product adoption and the rise of Tanya as a popular platform
- Concerns about industrial farming and the diminishing returns on investment
- The potential decline of on-chain meme coins and predictions for the future of consumer apps and airdrop meta
- The competition between Solana and Ethereum, as well as the success of Helium in using crypto token incentives to install new infrastructure

- The speaker discusses their positive experience with Helium customer service
- They compare Helium to other phone plans, noting its affordability and features
- The coverage of the Helium network is discussed, with a focus on major cities
- The conversation shifts to D-PEN ideas and on-chain gaming
- The podcast ends with a reminder to subscribe and a disclaimer about the views expressed

- Thank you for listening to Good Game
- Don't forget to subscribe
- Next episode will be next week

- Positive experience with Helium customer service
- Comparison of Helium to other phone plans in terms of affordability and features
- Discussion of Helium network coverage in major cities
- Conversation about D-PEN ideas and on-chain gaming
- Reminder to subscribe to the podcast and disclaimer about expressed views
- Thank you for listening to Good Game
- Next episode will be next week

Imran and Qiao review the first half of 2024 and share predictions for the rest of the year.
No BS crypto insights for founders.

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
01:22 Welcome to Good Game
01:48 Where Are We Going Next?
02:38 Andrew Kang's Eth ETF Analysis
07:15 "We had a lot of good news and the market couldn't go up"
10:19 "We're running out of good news"
10:36 Rate Cuts, Short-Term Bearish?
12:09 Rate Cuts May Not Even Happen?
12:55 "One of the most absurd statistics I've ever seen in my life"
14:37 Another Nvdia FUD
15:24 "We can't go up on good news"
16:31 The Launch of Blast
18:29 Overview/Summary of The 1st Half of The Year
18:47 Speculation, The Good and Bad
20:33 Market Fatigue in Meme Coins
24:16 Yugalabs' Offshoot NFT
25:12 CBB Decided Not to Market Make on Blur Anymore
27:03 Will the NFTs Come Back?
28:44 Pudgy Penguins' Presence Across Social Media
32:15 Decentralizing Disney
36:48 DeFi and Layer 2s Overview for The 1st Half of the Year
43:46 AI Crypto
44:52 AI Crypto Projects Qiao is Excited About Today
51:59 Crate
53:26 AI Video
54:34 AI Girlfriends
57:51 Impact of Social Media on Mental Health
01:01:32 AI Characters on Chain
01:03:04 Some OnlyFans Girls Using AI Chatbots
01:07:15 Financial Nihilism in Crypto
01:09:41 Stablecoins and Global Impact
01:19:49 Real-World Assets
01:26:19 Regulatory Environment and SEC Approvals
01:26:43 Trump in a Bitcoin Event in Miami
01:27:03 ETFs and SEC Commissioners
01:29:48 Consumer Apps and Market Trends
01:39:45 TON
01:48:04 Some of The Meme Coins May Not Come Back
01:49:40 Qiao Discovering Hawk Tuah
01:51:15 Predictions for the Future
01:54:31 Airdrop Meta
01:57:33 Industrial Farming
02:01:04 Predictions on Airdrops and Solana
02:05:37 DePIN Projects
02:05:58 Helium Network
02:13:22 Other DePIN Ideas
02:16:15 Gaming

Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3N675w3
Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/3snLsxU
Website: https://goodgamepod.xyz
Twitter: https://twitter.com/goodgamepodxyz

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Alliance Twitter: https://twitter.com/alliancedao

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are personal to the speaker(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other person or entity. Discussions and answers to questions are intended as generalized, non-personalized information. Nothing herein should be construed or relied upon as investment, legal, tax, or other advice.

Welcome to Good Game, your No BS Insights for crypto founders.

My main argument is we can't go up on good news.

We went up a little bit too fast earlier this year, so we're now taking a break.

And at the same time, there's no reason to believe that the cycle is over we'll probably go up we'll probably be higher at the end of the year than than today

I agree with that I do think though that this chop is gonna be brutal it's gonna be brutal

the slower the longer it takes the more brutal it is And the more you should delete Twitter.

It's gonna be like over the last 2 weeks where Twitter, crypto Twitter was insufferable.

I mean, there are certain days where I just wouldn't even log on.

You know, I wouldn't have locked down at all except for the fact that all my fantasy bag holders are shitting on me for not tweeting.

But I try to perform, I try to be a good player.

It's bad when I get your players texting me and DMing me.

People telling you to tell me to tweet more.

Looking for your next startup idea in crypto?

list and get inspired at Alliance.xyz forward slash ideas.

It's been what like 2 weeks now since we last caught up.

I think it's good to discuss where we are in the market.

A couple weeks ago, we thought, at least the market thought, up only, future France, Donald was wrong.

And I guess the market wants to know where we're going next.

To me, it seems like the consensus trade is that we're going to go to 50k.

By consensus trade, you mean Donald, Donald predictions.

Ansem is like we bounce at high 50s but Donald is more like low 50s if not 40s.

There are a bunch of other traders that are calling for like 50.

So it was, it was, I'll get to the conclusion first and then talk about the analysis, the reasoning.

The conclusion is the ETH ETF will, or his conclusion is that the ETH ETF will underperform the expectations.

And the reasoning is, there's a lot of reasonings, a lot of assumptions about numbers and stuff and like that.

The reasoning is that it's more or less pressed in.

And for example, you can see that in the OI of the futures, you went up a lot.

So meaning basically people are front running the ETF flow.

And that is in contrast to the BTC ETF back then, the OI actually dropped right before the ETF.

People were expecting sell the news at that time.

So they sold and then they got punished by the market.

But he has like 3 or 4 lines of reasonings that are similar that led to this conclusion of the the eth ETF potentially Underperforming personally, I think the analysis is interesting I don't know if I agree with it because I think there's way too many assumptions going into that analysis.

I don't know if the ETH ETF will outperform or underperform, but if you ask me to compare the ETH ETF flow to the BTC ETF flow, and ask me like which 1 would be bigger as a percentage of the market cap.

So you've asked me which of the 2 ETFs would have a bigger impact to the price.

And the reason for that is Every TradFi person that I know, the mind share among the TradFi folks is way bigger for BTC than for

The narrative is just so much easier to comprehend for people,

Whereas Ethereum is a tech play for a lot of the TriFi folks.

Or is it a tech platform where people can build permissionless applications on top?

There's a lot of potential narratives that are complicated for Trafi to understand.

But my point is the mindshare for BTC is a lot bigger than for ETH among that group of users, that group of buyers.

Basically the TradFi folks who don't already have access to crypto through Coinbase and others, if they wanted to access crypto, they would have to buy the ETF.

For those people, I think PTC mind share is a lot bigger.

It's not that my opinion on this is not strong enough for me to place a trade.

Just gone to my head, I would say if ETF probably underperformed the PTC ETF.

There was also a conversation about investors that are buying ETH ETF, they may not really understand the dynamics because there's yield that could be earned by just buying it natively versus using an ETF.

So the ETH ETF, oh yeah, so this was also 1 of the reasonings that I can't remember if it was Andrew Kang or was it?

He pointed out that the ETH ETF doesn't have the native yield.

And So the group of people who see ETH as a yield generating tech player will be less likely to buy the ETF as a result.

I mean, so on balance, I don't think obviously I don't think the ETF is bearish.

I just think the impact is probably less than the BTC ETF.

Maybe I'm feeling like the market is over indexing on the bearishness.

I think this is really obviously very positive.

And we haven't yet seen the market participants that are actually going to buy the ETH ETF.

For anyone to buy it on the balance sheet of a large company for investment management arm, it's going to be very hard for them to actually acquire ETH natively.

And it's better off that they buy it through a structured product like an ETF.

I don't, yeah, based on what you're saying, yeah, I generally agree that I don't know how big that buying opportunity can be for them.

Back to the earlier topic, where we are in the broader market.

So there's 1 thing that I didn't really like over the last few weeks or even a couple of months is that we had a lot of good news and the market couldn't go up.

That was the thing that tells me, man, this thing, like we're probably taking a break And some of the news were, for example, well, the ETH ETF approval, that was a good news.

The SEC withdrawing their investigation into ETH.

Trump shilling crypto in every single 1 of his speeches, that is really bullish for the entire crypto asset class and industry.

And Trump currently, according to the prediction market odds, not just the crypto native ones, not just like the polymarket, but also the traditional Web2 betting websites.

Trump is now around 55%, somewhere between 50 and 60, Whereas Biden is in the mid 30s to low 40s.

And so Trump is fairly ahead of Biden in the race.

And the fact that he's bullish crypto should be bullish for the market.

So whenever any market, not just crypto, whenever any market couldn't go up on good news, it tends to be bearish.

Whenever the market cannot go down on bad news, it's really, really bullish.

For example, 2 years ago, when the whole thing like FTX, all that stuff happened.

There was a period of a lot of FUD following the collapse of FTX, including FUD around Binance.

All these news couldn't bring the market down and that was extremely bullish.

And today we're seeing sort of the opposite of that, which is a lot of good news and the market couldn't go up.

Do you think this is a byproduct of the upcoming Mt.

Gox today announced that they're going to start distributing, was it 80,000 or 144,000 Bitcoin?

And so Galaxy wrote a huge report on it, which I'll share in a short bit.

But do you think this news had something to do with it over the past few weeks?

Because that's what some people are speculating.

It would probably spook the derivative traders, the perp traders.

Also funny enough this morning a friend of mine asked me if I if I was going to sell my...

Because you know I have Mongox Bitcoin and he asked me like if I was going to sell the Mongox Bitcoin.

That's when I discovered, oh, actually Mongox is going to offload a bunch of the BTC.

But the other thing is that Germany, the government of Germany, right?

And that also spooked some of the traders.

But anyway, I think these 2 are more short term.

I think the main thing that worries me is that the good news cannot push the market up.

For me, I feel as if we're running out of good news.

I don't know what other catalysts there are outside of the ETF.

there's there's 2 more until the end of the year.

All right is it rate cuts short-term bearish no why for the markets I don't know somebody put a report out recently that said that every time there's a rate cut the markets

So I want to make sure that that we address some of this stuff.

So there's a lot of macro larps on Twitter that think that every cuts are bearish.

But What they're looking at is the historical pattern, which is that whenever the Fed cuts the rates, the market tends to go down.

But the fact that they missed is that historically, the vast majority of the times when the Fed cuts rates, it's when the market, it was when the economy was not doing well.

So the economy was heading towards recession, recession, and the Fed needed some stimulus and Ray Cuts was 1 of them.

This time the Fed is not cutting rates because the economy is doing poorly.

In fact, the economy is doing really, really well.

They're cutting the rates because inflation has more or less stabilized and they want to...

Well, there's a stated reason and there's a real reason.

The real reason, I think, is pumping the markets a little bit ahead of the election for the Democrats.

But anyway, the point being, this time the rates cut is fundamentally based on a different reason from the majority of historical instances.

So this time the rate cuts are actually bullish.

So between rate cuts, I just saw, I was just reading a tweet a few minutes ago that talked about how rate cuts may not even happen because the market's doing so well.

So there is that, you know, I don't know how big of a reason this is, but because the economy is doing so well, there could be a possibility that the Fed may push it till next year.

Because before, when we first started the year, I think the market was pricing in 3 rate cuts this year.

And so it will be interesting to see how Powell And the Fed reacts to this as the market starts to do well.

I mean, so far it looks like they want to do 1 before the election.

show you the, like 1 of the most ridiculous, absurd statistics I've ever seen in my life is that if you look at the return of the S&P 500 3 months before the election, 80% of the times, sorry, whenever the S&P goes up during those 3 months, 80% of the time the incumbent wins and 20% of the time the incumbent loses?

So in this case, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger.

So whenever the S&P 500 goes down during the 3 months before the election, 80% chance that the incumbent loses.

Like it was very consistent over the last call of 50 to 100 years.

So 25 elections ballpark, 20 elections, call it 20 elections, very consistent.

So the Democrats must have figured this out by now.

So this is like our version of some sort of Ponzi pump.

And then now let's think about the elections.

Alright, So I think this is a good summary for what's to come over the next 6 months.

I think it seems like on Twitter right now, it's consensus that it's going to be chop down chop until volume expands and people are hedging their bets against the election.

I don't actually disagree with the consensus.

Most of the time, I don't disagree with the consensus.

People think NVIDIA is topping, and some tweeted about the chart looking like a parabolic increase.

And I tweeted about NVIDIA insiders selling their shares at a faster pace than ever while their retail flow is incoming.

The reason why NVIDIA is so important is because it feels like NVIDIA is what holds the entire market.

So if NVIDIA holds the stock market, I mean I don't want to draw a strong conclusion but NVIDIA does seem like the market leader right now.

But my main argument is we can't go up on good news.

And at the same time, there's no reason to believe that the cycle is over.

We'll probably go up, we'll probably be higher at the end of the year than today.

I do think though that this chop is going to be brutal.

The slower, the longer it takes, the more brutal it is.

It's going to be like over the last 2 weeks where Twitter, crypto Twitter was insufferable.

I mean, there were certain days where I just wouldn't even log on.

You know, I wouldn't have logged on at all.

Except for the fact that all my fantasy bag holders are, are shitting on me.

I get shitted on by them, but I try to perform.

It's bad when I get your players texting me and

But oh, we should talk about, you know, obviously today is the launch of BLAST.

And today ends the sixth tournament for fantasy top as well.

And so they're distributing blast gold to everyone.

And you know, everyone's awaiting and speculating what the blast token is in a price out at.

And I checked Able last night and it was around $3 for token.

I would imagine it's a billion or something.

Ebitrum right now is 8 billion FDV so if Blast is at 3 I would say it's pretty fair.

So Zurek's bread guy, who's also a listener of our podcast, said that about, he says 5.8 billion FTV feels low.

1000000000 circulating, So people are speculating right now, you know, 1000000000 circulating market cap, 6000000000 FTV is roughly what people think.

About 14% of the total supply for blast will be an airdrop.

14 billion tokens have been transferred to a smart contract.

I don't think blast should be priced higher than Arbitrum.

Arbitrum is still the obvious front runner.

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Mid-Year Review & Predictions for the Rest of 2024