Bob Lucas introduces himself and the 4 Year Journey series, reflecting on the past years and expressing excitement for the upcoming cycle.

Introduction and Overview

Bob discusses the disbelief stage in the bull market cycle, where participants are hesitant to believe in the market's upward movement due to past bear market experiences.

The Disbelief Stage

Bob shares his belief that institutions have been accumulating Bitcoin in anticipation of a positive ETF announcement, and discusses the potential impact of a negative ETF decision.

Institutions Accumulating Bitcoin

Bob talks about how the market is entering the awareness stage of the four-year cycle, where people begin to accept that we are in a bull market and bearish sentiments start to fade.

Entering the Awareness Stage

Bob emphasizes the importance of navigating emotions and volatility during the bull market cycle, and encourages viewers to have a game plan for the remainder of the cycle.

Navigating Emotions and Volatility

Bob discusses the potential trajectory of the current cycle, considering the possibility of a left translated or right translated cycle, and the importance of setting expectations.

Analyzing the Current Cycle

Bob reflects on a previous scare in the market and explains how the market reversed early, indicating the beginning of a new four-year cycle.

The Scare That Wasn't

Bob further explains the disbelief stage and how institutions have been accumulating Bitcoin, leading to underexposure for many retail investors.

The Disbelief Stage and Institutions Accumulating Bitcoin

Bob discusses the potential impact of an ETF approval, including increased buying interest and inflows into the market, and the possibility of a sell-off if the ETF is denied.

The Impact of ETF Approval

Bob explores the potential outcomes of the current cycle, including the possibility of reaching new all-time highs and the uncertainty of where the cycle will ultimately top.

The Potential of the Current Cycle

Bob emphasizes the importance of holding through the four-year cycle and resisting the temptation to trade or sell during periods of volatility, highlighting the potential for significant gains.

The Importance of Holding Through the Cycle

Bob discusses the scenario of ETF approval and the possibility of a left translated cycle, cautioning against trading based on short-term price movements and focusing on the long-term strategy.

The Scenario of ETF Approval

Bob concludes by summarizing the key points discussed and reiterating the need for discipline and patience throughout the cycle, while acknowledging the uncertainty of how the cycle will unfold.

Conclusion and What's Ahead

If the current candle and next month in December come up towards 49, 50, there may be a volatility event in January that brings the price back down to earth.

The Potential Volatility Event in January

The response to positive ETF approval will determine if a left-translated cycle is in play.

The Importance of ETF Approval

If the left-translated cycle doesn't come in this cycle, it is likely to come in the next cycle, leading to a complete shake-up of the whole narrative.

A Possible Shake-up of the Narrative

The Bitcoin four-year cycle can't get wrecked, but the peak of the cycle determines the length of the bear market.

The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle

The current stage is where everyone starts to believe in the bull market narrative, leading to acceleration and adoption.

The Awareness Stage of the Bull Market

The role of the active huddle strategy is to make select actions at the extremes of the market while maintaining a hands-off approach.

The Role of the Active Huddle Strategy

To be successful with the huddle strategy, it's important to separate the mindset for trading other assets and to resist the urge to allocate from the successful portfolio.

Separating Mindset and Accounts

The slow and steady pace of the huddle strategy can lead to success in a stress-free manner.

The Slow and Steady Pace of the Strategy

Wishing everyone a great holiday period and thanking them for listening. The next video will be released in January.

Holiday Wishes and Conclusion

- The speaker is reflecting on their 4-year journey and upcoming 5-year anniversary of publishing a series.
- They discuss the disbelief stage in the bull market and how institutions may be accumulating Bitcoin in anticipation of a positive ETF announcement.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a game plan to navigate the volatility and emotions of the market.
- They mention the recent scare that didn't materialize and explain the normal ebb and flow of Bitcoin's cycles.
- The speaker believes that the market is now in the awareness stage, where people are accepting that it is a bull market.
- They highlight the need to remain in position and prepare for future volatility and tests.
- The speaker discusses the early phase of a cycle, where participants may still be hesitant due to past pain and scar tissue.
- They explain how cycles turn at the worst times and that early entrants benefit the most.
- The speaker mentions the sideways movement of Bitcoin and the challenges it posed for traders.
- They conclude by discussing the yield curve inversion and the concerns about a recession.

- The market has been choppy and sideways, causing difficulty for traders.
- The current buying interest is driven by institutions rather than retail investors.
- People are struggling to find opportunities to buy at a lower price.
- The market is in the awareness phase and there is anticipation for an ETF approval.
- The approval of an ETF could lead to significant inflows into Bitcoin.
- There may be a short-term pullback after an ETF approval before resuming the bull market.
- It is advised to resist the urge to trade around your position and instead ride the four-year cycle.

- The speaker advises against trading around one's position in the market, as it is not worth it in the long run.
- The denial of an ETF approval could result in a short-term sell-off, but it may be perceived as positive for the Bitcoin ecosystem.
- The speaker believes that Bitcoin will recover and continue to perform well, even in the case of a denial.
- The speaker predicts a potential price range of $200,000 to $900,000 for Bitcoin in the next cycle, with diminishing returns.
- It is impossible to accurately predict where the cycle will top, so it is important to remain disciplined and patient.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of responding appropriately to volatility during the cycle to maximize performance.
- An ETF approval could lead to a sharp and early increase in Bitcoin's price, which may deviate from the expected window of growth.

- The speaker discusses the duration of Bitcoin cycles and predicts that the current cycle will reach its high around February or March 2024.
- If Bitcoin experiences a rapid increase in price and reaches high levels too quickly, it could indicate a blow-off move or a left-translated cycle, which would make it difficult to predict the top of the cycle.
- The speaker suggests that a more normal path for Bitcoin would involve a shakeout in January 2024 before resuming its upward trend.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of how Bitcoin responds to a positive ETF approval in determining whether a left-translated cycle is in play.
- The speaker believes that if the current cycle does not fit the expected pattern, it will likely happen in the next cycle.
- The speaker explains the concept of a four-year cycle and suggests that a washout will occur around 2026-2027.
- The speaker advises viewers to adopt a hands-off approach to investing in Bitcoin and resist the urge to trade other cryptocurrencies or liquidate their Bitcoin holdings.
- The speaker concludes by wishing viewers a happy holiday period and thanking them for their support.

- The speaker reflects on their 4-year journey and upcoming 5-year anniversary of publishing a series.
- They discuss the stages of the bull market and the importance of having a game plan to navigate market volatility.
- The recent scare didn't materialize, and Bitcoin's cycles have normal ebb and flow.
- The market is now in the awareness stage, with institutions driving buying interest.
- There is anticipation for an ETF approval, which could lead to significant inflows into Bitcoin.
- It is advised to resist trading around one's position and instead ride the four-year cycle.
- The denial of an ETF approval could result in a short-term sell-off, but Bitcoin will recover.
- The speaker predicts a potential price range of $200,000 to $900,000 for Bitcoin in the next cycle.
- It is important to respond appropriately to volatility during the cycle to maximize performance.
- Bitcoin's current cycle is predicted to reach its high around February or March 2024.
- The speaker suggests a more normal path for Bitcoin would involve a shakeout in January 2024.
- Viewers are advised to adopt a hands-off approach and resist trading other cryptocurrencies or liquidating Bitcoin holdings.

Agenda – 

The Scare that wasn’t.
Disbelief Stage - They’re under exposed!
Institutions are taking your Bitcoin
ETF impact – Positive and Negative
The Awareness Stage – Your Role
What’s ahead – Depends…

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Hello, followers of the 4 Year Journey, this is Bob Lucas here in New York coming to you from Station 3, NYC on November 20th, 2023.

Coming up next month on 5 years of publishing this series.

I've certainly enjoyed bringing them to you.

And I think the fun is only just beginning again for this next cycle.

Today on the agenda, there is a number of items I want to talk about.

1 in the last video 2 months ago I talked about a scare that was possibly coming which of course hasn't materialized and we'll get into that.

I want to talk about the disbelief stage that we've been in in every bull market phase.

There's so many participants who still have scar tissue and pain from the associated bear market that was just before that.

I think a lot of people, more so on the retail side, are underexposed.

And I believe institutions have actually been taking your Bitcoin and everybody's Bitcoin by accumulating in anticipation of what I believe will be a positive ETF announcement coming pretty soon.

Of course, that's not a guarantee so I'll talk about the negative component in the event that ETF is denied.

Also I want to talk about how we're now entering into, or we have entered I believe, into the awareness stage of the four-year cycle.

So that stage really is all about finally people coming to terms with the idea that we are in a bull market and the final bear holdouts really begin to capitulate and I believe it right there right now.

So It's gonna be very important for us on this journey who have gotten in at the bottom again, that we only really have 1 significant role to play here for the remainder of the cycle.

And that is what this series has always been about, is about how to navigate those emotions, how to navigate the markets in the light of a lot of volatility that's going to come.

I want to talk and remind you of kind of your role in seeing this through to its conclusion, regardless of what that conclusion might look like and where it might go, we need to obviously have a game plan for how to tackle that aware in the stage.

Maybe left translated, possibly like another right translated cycle, like we've seen before.

And is it too early to talk about that or not?

It's good to put that in the back of your mind to set some expectations and to have so that game plan ready to go.

Let's talk about first the scare that wasn't and in that last video I showed you the weekly chart of Bitcoin here and how After making what we call a weekly cycle lower cycle that typically comes around that 6 month time frame had a perfectly normal decline after the first good sort of four-month move off the bear market lows and this is where we got in right before this candle and The start of the four-year cycle so nice good clean entry and that certainly helps in the huddling and being able to sit comfortably into a position and we saw Bitcoin come up from that $17,000 level all the way up to 31 and then down into sort of a nine-week decline which was very very Expected or very normal for for Bitcoin or any asset class to go through an ebb and flow Manor into each cycle and then we came out of this cycle here Strong move here in June to test those highs which did not make go on to make another higher high and in fact reverse at a time when you shouldn't be seeing a reversal in the cycle.

So I was kind of warning in the last video that as we're hitting down at the bottom of this range and testing those tune loads that it looked possible, At least it looked possible to me that we were gonna see a move down towards the end of the year, maybe towards a say $19, $20,000 level.

That was sort of a downside target in my mind.

And I only pointed that out mostly or only really just to prepare yourself in the event that if we had that type of move lower that you didn't want to sell your position you suddenly didn't want to sell it up at 25 26 27 but you certainly didn't want to sell it on a panic decline because we've seen that in the past with Bitcoin it has such extreme volatility at times and when it goes down 20 or 30 percent in a very short period of time even the most sort of dedicated and most disciplined holders of Bitcoin end up capitulating at times or panicking and selling Especially because at that point it wasn't necessarily really confirmed that we're in a bull market A lot of people had a lot of doubts back here in August of the summer Especially kind of with this double top look that was pretty common Commentary on YouTube and also on Twitter so it was all you know It made sense that this would possibly drop down and I wanted to warn you on that instead What we had was the market reversed early and put in an earlier weekly cycle low Right here before taking off here About 5 6 weeks ago from that 26000 dollar range slicing right through the range That had developed with the April highs and the July highs Essentially at this point right here I think putting a nail in the Sort of bears coffin at that point with new 2023 highs this Moment here, although I was more than confident that the bull market four-year cycle was already in play Of course by getting in early, but I think what this So it's hold the market right here with this slice through back in October was that the four-year cycle is in fact in a new cycle and in the bull trend and Heading higher so that ended up playing out Well in the end for whole holders of the four-year cycle.

And in fact, since the $17,000 entry, there really hasn't been any significant test of possibly, the biggest 1 was in early March here, where we had this good decline from 25 down to 19.

Otherwise it's been a pretty comfortable steady ride higher.

Shouldn't be difficult for folks here to remain in position again, especially because we're in nice and early in the cycle.

And now the price has more than doubled since then.

As everybody tries to work out what's going on and frets about a recession and a bear market, we comfortably got in a standing position and now we're just going to sit in that position understanding that there will be a change in character, there will be a big or many multiple tests to come for holders and that we will need to develop that plan to be able to withstand that volatility.

So what does it mean to be in a disbelief stage of a cycle.

And what does it mean by institutions taking your Bitcoin?

Well, in the early phase of a four-year cycle, when you've cut, the new four-year cycle always begins, obviously, from the ashes, essentially, from the worst of the bear market, the final capitulation that generally comes right towards the end of a bear phase.

We saw that here with the FTX final decline, but we also saw that in sort of prior cycles, as you can see, when we had a move to 19,000 down to sort of 5 and then it went sideways and then boom, you had that sort of final nail.

And that leaves behind significant amount of scar tissue and leaves people kind of stuck like deer in headlight, waiting or wanting to buy, but just can't do it because of the pain that they've experienced during the last cycle.

It's very important to understand that cycles, once they begin, it's the early entrants that really do take advantage of at the end and the people that are stuck in the past in the rear-vision Mirror looking at what's occurred looking at what they've suffered they are the ones that generally can't see ahead and realize that the markets are forward pricing in nature And it just takes a long time for people to come around to finally accepting That the market has turned that we're in a new cycle and it takes significant price Confirmation for that to happen and that's what the disbelief stage is all about the beginning phase Come off this 06:16 17000 level everyone was kind of expecting another decline here after this 7, 8 week consolidation in December.

At that point, of course, there were bankruptcies everywhere, FTX, everyone was, a lot of people had their funds locked on exchanges so it just looked as dire as it can come but of course all cycles typically turn right at the worst time when there is obviously sort of to use analogy blood in the street that's exactly what we had and that's when we turned and we turned sharply And even this early move from 17,000 straight to 21,000, and then 2 or 3 weeks later to 25,000, just left people behind, not really able to buy.

And the ones that did buy Probably got shaken out right away with that move down in March.

Then we had this sort of 2 candles and before you knew it, Bitcoin was back to 28, 29,000 or 30,000.

People felt as if they really kind of couldn't get in.

Then the market threw everybody really some curveballs right here during this April through to October time frame We just went mostly sideways and chopped and chopped around People tried to get in and out in and out and really got turned and their account got churned around And that of course left people here thinking again with a Fed Rising rates or raising rates, I should say And a possible or likely recession, of course, remember the yield curve every single YouTuber out there was talking about the yield curve inversion.

And everyone was afraid to buy Bitcoin and then boom, it moved higher.

Now, what I believe has happened here, obviously the ETF pending or possible approval That's out there has driven a lot of buying a lot of interest and we see this with open interests on traditional Tradefy exchanges like see me for example where an options marketplaces where there's just been a lot of interest in Taking some position ahead of a possible ETF approval So the institutions in my opinion are the ones that have actually been buying this time around as a past the prior cycles Which has really been about more the retail crowd.

It feels as if a lot of the Binance volume for example where traditional retail folks would generally trade have been kind of secondary.

They haven't been driving the markets, and the interest has been declining more so.

So this has been driven by a lot of onshore US-based buying, from what I can tell.

And it's not giving the retail folks any real clean opportunities to get into a position.

Of course, I'm aware that most people do have a position, obviously you as followers, I'm hoping you're fully loaded from those 17,000 levels, but it does feel just more from sentiment and from what I hear on social media and everything else as a whole, that people are kind of struggling to get that position, thinking the price is too high, or expecting at least a pullback to buy comfortably.

And in a strong bullish market, sometimes the market just doesn't give you that opportunity.

It just keeps on going higher and keeps on moving higher.

And that's kind of the environment we're in right now where we've had this 5, 6 green candles and we're moving higher.

We're certainly in the awareness stage now.

I don't think anybody that's serious can possibly believe that we're in a bear market of any type.

That's just an outrageous position to take.

I know there are some out there but yeah we've got new sort of 16, 17 month highs in place in a new four-year cycle that couldn't be any clearer.

So we're in the awareness phase now, people want to buy in and dips are being bought and there is a lot of anticipation for an ETF approval that lies ahead.

That's holding this market higher, sort of running consolidation higher here.

That to me speaks more to the possibility that this market will want to shoot even higher and Continue that move and lock people out now as we know with an asset class like Bitcoin That volatility is always around the corner a 30% decline Can possibly can take could take place in 72 hours very easily.

And we know that as holders of a four-year cycle, because our plan is to hold over not only multi-months, but even multi-years during a four-year cycle.

So that Volatility is only an opportunity, but we know that can come at any given time.

There's obviously a significant amount of buying that's been going on in anticipation of an approval.

Now, I don't have the answer to whether or not it will be approved or not.

But the market feels as if an approval is coming.

And generally, with so much traditional finance and institutional money coming in, I get the feeling that this approval is going to be coming in the next 4 to 6 weeks before these deadlines are due.

That is my read, at least, of the tea leaves, and that's what the market and the price action I believe is telling us and People have said well, isn't that going to be sort of a sell the news event?

Isn't that pricing and my thinking is no it's not for a number of reasons 1 when you look at where we stand in the four-year cycle.

Here's the monthly chart, which, by the way, is just picture perfect, running to script, as good as you can get, essentially, with now just 9 to 10 months in from the last four-year cycle.

So we're in the most advantageous sort of phase of a cycle, of a long four-year cycle.

So when you get extremely positive news, something like an ETF approval, that really has been 10 years in the making we've gone through Kind of these ETF is coming narratives many many times over the cycles But if we were to actually arrive this time around I think what's different this time around is that in the past, back in 2020 and 2017 and other periods where we talked a lot about an ETF approval, I don't think the general market was in a position to embrace an ETF wholeheartedly, whereas it is today.

When you look at some of the traditional financial news media, and you look at CNBC, for example, the narrative towards, or the view and the sentiment towards Bitcoin by not just the analysts and the presenters, but essentially anybody that comes onto these shows there are very very few skeptics anymore for Bitcoin most either have either a neutral stand or very positive and bullish stand of course that's because they see the potential for themselves and their traditional firms, institutional firms to take advantage of this.

But that also extends more broadly to the general population.

I think now Bitcoin has achieved a level of awareness and has moved from kind of that scammy, fake internet money kind of viewpoint that everybody held to, yeah, this actually makes some sense, I understand it.

And it's been around through boom and bust cycle now 3 to 4 times that it's legitimate.

And the reason I bring this up is the environment is ripe where if these ETFs get approved that the follow-on capital inflow, the ability for wealth managers and investment advisors for example to convince their clients to allocate some of their funds towards Bitcoin is now in place.

So seeing these get approved, I think also means that it will be followed by real and Significant inflows into the space and into Bitcoin that will help drive this up of course, we're gonna get at some point soon enough a Volatility event that it's gonna result in a downside move.

I don't think it happens though on an approval itself I think what's more likely to happen is if we get the approval that Bitcoin puts in, another very, very big candle follows through and extends in the short and intermediate term into a pretty significantly overbought level.

And it's at that point, possibly 2 to 3 or 4 weeks post an ETF approval, that Bitcoin could probably top in the short term, pull back that 30%, shake everybody out, and then resume that bull market four-year cycle uptrend.

So on the weekly chart what that might look like for example is from this level here another extension Similar to what we had over the last 5 or 6 weeks possibly again with a small dip in between that leading up to an approval but a good move and a sizable move as high as say 47 48 thousand a 10000 dollar 30% move from this level would not in the least surprise me 1 bit at this point.

Like I said, the tailwind is behind Bitcoin.

We've sort of cleaned out the last bear market.

And the surprises In this market would come to the upside so a good solid extension up to this level Followed by a pullback a first real shakeout of the four-year cycle that would likely come from that point now How do you play some at that?

Well, I'm hoping you're me gonna say I'm not gonna do anything at that point because when you ride the four-year cycle It's not designed for you to be a traitor It's designed for you to get in at the lows which we've done again at 19 and 17000 like we did the last cycle And then it's designed for you to sit in that position and ride that position, ignoring even when it feels to you that it's obvious that a decline is coming, for you to ignore that temptation to sell.

Because in a very powerful bull market, you may think you have a good read in this market and you want to get cute on your position, try and pick up some extra Bitcoin because it's extended, or you're just afraid of losing all that big open profit that you're showing.

And that's when you make possibly a critical error.

And by that, what I mean is there is a time when the market can just not look back and continue and continue and continue to the point where if you had sold, you're underexposed or you have no exposure, And you end up buying back because you can't stand seeing Bitcoin go up in our 20 30 40 50 percent In a short period of time and that's exactly when that local or the intermediate top would occur So we have to resist that urge to begin to trade around your position.

In the end, we're looking for gains in a cycle, if it goes like prior cycles, that put the need for trying to trade the position aside.

You're not going to beat a Great buy and hold strategy over a four-year cycle if you can get in early like we've done if you can get into the bottom You're gonna be everybody else that doesn't that waits for the Confirmation that waits for the bull market that's getting in at 24 25 and it's trading around that position You're gonna beat them every single time.

So the beauty of this is Buy and hold we make 5 to 7 or 8 sort of Transactions in a Four-year cycle and you go on and you live your life and you still manage hopefully to get a great return From the strategy as a whole now what happens if the ETF is denied?

Well I think you know that's actually gonna be a big news if it did if it was denied because there is quite a bit of sort of pent up or built up action here related to a pending ETF approval.

Certainly I think from this range with $25,000 range up to this level it's anticipating an approval And if a denial was to come, I think you're going to see a pretty sharp sell-off.

I don't think you want to be selling even in that case.

Because if an ETF approval comes, I don't think it changes ultimately where we end up in the four-year cycle.

And some may argue that a denial, again, is better for the Bitcoin ecosystem as a whole.

It's better that Bitcoin remains in the hands of you and I and the average Joe around the world and it's in self-custody and that's really the intent of Bitcoin.

So I think ultimately it may be perceived as a positive but it still would of course result in some short-term pain possibly even a 3 or 4 month move that goes lower.

I think the lower boundary here of this prior range around 24-25 would still provide a flaw in a denial, but don't be mistaken that yes, there would be some short-term pain or intermediate term pain in a denial by the SEC of an ETF to come.

But when you look at sort of prior cycles, all that might mean is that we just may go back on track to something similar to this 15 to 17 cycle which was the cleanest cycle that we've seen and currently we're sort of mimicking a lot of that right here.

The way we've started this cycle to me resembles a lot of the 2015-2016 move that we had and a denial of an ETF could of course send price back to the 25,000 range right where the 10 or right just right below 10 month moving average maybe consolidate a few months but then continue on I think ultimately even with a denial that Bitcoin has the momentum in the four-year cycle it's still in this growth phase overall from a long, long-term perspective.

And I think it still would recover and continue on and do well.

And then possibly on a denial, what that might mean is that the ETF approval will come in a year's time or 2 years time, and possibly right in time for when the four-year cycle is expected to come to a top around that sort of 30 to 38-month range or window, as you can see illustrated by this chart.

Now, Again, just going back, I do think it will be approved from what I just my read of sentiment in the markets as a whole.

And if it does get approved, then it does open up the possibility for the left translated cycle thesis that I've talked about many times before.

So I'm gonna combine now the awareness stage and your role and also what's ahead, just closing up the video with what's ahead.

So really what is ahead in theory is a 4 year cycle that is mirroring the prior cycles.

And if we are to look at sort of what prior cycles have done of course a prior cycle does not in any way guarantee that you'll see something similar in this cycle.

But it still is worth kind of just painting somewhat of a picture here to what potentially could come from a cycle especially 1 that sort of somewhat mirrors the 2015-17 cycle or even less so would be the 2018 to 2021 top, which still wasn't a horrible performer by any means.

Those 2 cycles, if they were to play out, point to a $200,000 to a $900,000 or so $1,000 Bitcoin price in the next cycle.

Now, of course, there's the idea that we'll see diminishing returns.

The last 2 cycles returned less than the prior cycle.

So looking at that, then maybe there's a target of around about 120, 130,000.

The point though really is that, there's 2 points here.

1 is we're never gonna know where this cycle tops.

And it doesn't matter what your favorite analyst online tells you or what their price prediction will be.

It's really just like throwing darts at a board.

What I'm more focused on here is the 2 scenarios of whether or not we're going to see a repeat right translated cycle.

And they were very consistent, month 33, 35, and 35, bringing us to towards the end of 2025 2 years from this point if this cycle plays out like the prior 3 cycles played out then we've got almost 2 years of a bull market ahead of us.

It's a very, very long time for you to remain disciplined and patient and in that position with the goal being, and I said this very thing in that last cycle with the goal being of just sitting in that position and focusing on that upper box right there where the timing for the expected next cycle will occur.

Now there's nothing easy about holding a position that you got in at 3500 or more recently 17,000 and now seeing Bitcoin trade in the hundred thousand dollar range and Possibly 200000 and jumping by 5 or 7000 dollars in 1 daily candle That's not going to be easy and we'll get to the emotion of that in future videos.

But right now, this is the prize, and we're looking to solidify our strategy and our plan to understand that we will see volatility, we'll see possibly if it unfolds this way over the next 2 years, probably at least 4 to 5 events where Bitcoin declines by more than 30% over a short period of time.

And how you respond during those 4 to 5 periods of volatility are going to be highly and extremely important to the performance that you get out of this cycle Because you just make 1 mistake and you can give up quite a lot of Bitcoin by selling too early, buying it higher, it then becomes a local high now you've all sort of shaken up and You kind of matter yourself for making those changes mid-flight and then your strategy is forgotten and you're kind of now Investing on tilt to use a poker analogy.

You're in early and if you didn't get in early and you got in a little bit later on, it doesn't matter.

That's just the price of admission for getting in late, but you're still early enough and the goal is going to be to ride out that cycle.

The only difference here might be with an ETF approval is it might provide the type of FOMO that could drive this monthly chart up sharply and quickly and early.

And I do think that's a possibility right here, that if we were to see in a very short period of time Bitcoin go up and make an all-time high well before even, say, the halving or the midpoint of this four-year cycle, then that, to me, would be the most difficult scenario to invest or trade on, because it doesn't fall in that expected window like it has in the past.

So to see Bitcoin over the next just a few months.

So for example here is sort of your 48, 4 year window.

If you go to sort of that 24 month period, you get to November of next year.

We should be seeing Bitcoin, excuse me for that, let me just use the arrow here.

So Bitcoin here should not be making a new high above that $70,000 range before this November high.

In prior cycles it took, in this cycle here, it took 26 weeks, 26 months to get to a high.

And in this cycle, it took right there 23 to 24.

So right at the midpoint, that's essentially roughly, roughly where Bitcoin should be making its new high in the cycle if it gets there well before that point and well before the halving say for example by February or March of 2024 within 14 to 16 months from the lows, then that is far too bullish, far too quick, that would have the profile of a blow off move or a left translated cycle.

So again, it's way too early to even really worry about this.

We would worry about this, I would say, by around January if we saw this current candle and maybe next month in December come up towards sort of 49, 50, which I think on an ETF approval would be expected But we should also see that shake out that volatility event in the following month in January bring it back down to earth somewhat shake people out and then also then resume and more normal path forward If it were to shoot up to 50,000 and the following month shoot up to 65,000, the following month shoot up to 100,000 as an example, that would be the very character of a left-translated cycle.

Again, that would make it very difficult because you just don't know whether or not over just 6 months from there and say by the summer of next year, you have 200 or 250,000.

You just don't know where that top in the cycle would be and would make it very difficult.

It's much better to have a cycle, make and push big FOMO, broad bull mania in this window because it makes it easier to then make the assumption that the final leg of the bull market is in place.

So we're going to be watching out for that in future videos again a little bit early to tell And how it responds to any positive ETF approval is going to be very important here in Determining whether or not a left translated cycle is in play But given that we've had 3 prior cycles that had fit a picture-perfect Pattern we are gonna be due And if it doesn't come in this cycle, I think it's definitely going to come in the next cycle.

We're going to be due for a complete shake-up of the whole narrative.

Now, it doesn't change the Bitcoin four-year cycle process.

People have said, oh, at 1 point, it's going to get wrecked.

The Bitcoin 40 cycle can't get wrecked because it only mirrors price action and what it essentially tells us Is that every 4 years we're gonna get it sort of a washout and the washout I think will happen no matter what around that So 20 26 20 27 time frame that will occur the question For us is more about the translation of a cycle Where does that peak occur for a peer occurs early?

Then essentially what that means is we're going to get a nasty a bear market Because if we peak before the midpoint, say on month 20 or 22, or even 24 at the midpoint, unlike prior cycles where you had 12 months, 12 months, 13 months in decline, now you're going to have, because again, four-year cycle was anchored on the lows, now you're gonna have 24 months.

So where you had 12 months of bear markets in the past, you would have 24 months of bear markets.

So That's the difference when determining what a four-year cycle looks like and what a four-year cycle is.

So in summary, I know this has been a 30-minute video and I probably haven't told you anything you don't really know or what you haven't gotten from 4 years of listening to these videos, but the awareness stage right now This is the stage where everybody starts to really believe in the bull market narrative and that's when we start to see acceleration and adoption and more more news media more attention in general and that's when the volatility becomes more frequent and more significant at times.

So your role here is simply if you've chosen to allocate a certain amount or all of your portfolio to a strategy like this, this active huddle strategy, which isn't just pure huddling, and it's not investing where you're more active.

It's making select few and far between select actions at the extremes of the market, at the lows and at the highs or hopefully as close as possible to the highs and That's your role in between that your role is to simply go out and garden play with your kids Get back with your friends do some reading learn some more in general at least when it comes to the investing component, this is supposed to be a very hands-off approach.

And to be hands-off, you really have to get your mind in the right place.

And when you start looking again at open profit, you start refreshing price, and you start seeing bullish, positive action, and everybody's starting to trade all the other all coins and the NFTs and everything else I'm not saying you shouldn't trade those who is obviously I know many of you know that I trade quite a bit of those But you have to separate those you have to be able to separate your mindset and your physical accounts between the 2.

1 strategy here involves doing almost nothing for a very long period of time.

If you wanna play around with everything else, of course, by all means do that, but do that with a different mindset in place.

Don't, don't, we'll resist the urge to allocate from your successful portfolio this Bitcoin huddle strategy.

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