Discussion of Bitcoin's price movement, market sentiment, and potential cautionary measures.

Bitcoin and Market Analysis

Consideration of market froth, open interest, and risk management strategies for traders.

Market Volatility and Risk Management

Analysis of ETF inflows, market speculation, and potential impact on future market trends.

ETF Inflows and Market Speculation

Discussion of potential rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins and the impact on market dynamics.

Rotation to Altcoins

Exploration of NFTs, cultural significance, and the potential long-term value of Ethereum.

NFTs and Artwork Chain

Evaluation of Ethereum's use cases, investment thesis, and potential market opportunities.

ETH Use Cases and Investment Thesis

Discussion on the preference for owning ETH through NFTs and DeFi, rather than holding ETH directly.

ETH and NFTs

Speculation on the potential bullishness of ETH and the NFT thesis in the crypto market.

Potential Bullishness of ETH

Exploration of geopolitical events, de-dollarization, and the impact on Bitcoin as a store of value.

Geopolitical Events and De-dollarization

Analysis of the Nigerian government's ban on cryptocurrency and its potential impact on the market.

Nigerian Ban on Cryptocurrency

Discussion on the unstoppable nature of Bitcoin and its global impact as a store of value.

Bitcoin's Unstoppable Nature

Consideration of renegade leaders and their role in driving Bitcoin adoption and economic freedom.

Renegade Leaders and Bitcoin Adoption

Importance of sober assessment and personal frameworks for trading effectively in the crypto market.

Assessment and Framework for Bitcoin

Reflection on the joy derived from simple activities and the importance of taking a break from market activities.

The Joy of Simple Activities

- The podcast discusses the recent rise in Bitcoin to above $50,000
- There is a debate on whether to continue holding Bitcoin or to start taking profits
- The hosts discuss the potential for a 30% pullback and the need to manage risk carefully
- There is also a discussion on the potential rotation of capital into altcoins, with differing opinions on the likelihood of this happening

- The speaker discusses the success of coins related to SEC judgments and the potential for continued growth in the crypto market
- They express disinterest in large caps and a focus on finding what the crypto natives are investing in, such as AI and DeFi
- The speaker is puzzled by the success of MSTR and the premium of CME futures, and expresses interest in NFTs and their potential for value accrual
- They predict a boom in established artists and brands releasing NFTs, and express optimism in the NFT market
- The speaker also discusses the potential impact of an ETH ETF and the SEC's regulatory stance on crypto, and predicts a positive future for crypto under a potential Trump presidency

- The speaker predicts that the SEC will be replaced with a more crypto-friendly administration, leading to a bullish market for crypto.
- They advise slowly transitioning from Bitcoin to altcoins as the market shifts.
- The speaker is bullish on Ethereum's long-term potential due to its use cases and cultural significance, but advises strategic investment to maximize returns.

- The speaker believes that ETH is going up and will do well, but the return is not great compared to the rest of the market
- They prefer owning ETH through NFTs and DeFi, as they believe these have similar risk to ETH but better potential returns
- They discuss the potential use cases for crypto, including de-dollarization and geopolitical events, and express bullishness on BTC
- They predict that Bitcoin will bottom when a reasonable country outlaws its private use, creating fear and a major buying opportunity

- The piece discusses the Nigerian Delta Avengers and their motivation for attacking oil pipelines
- It also touches on the unstoppable nature of Bitcoin and the potential impact of government bans on cryptocurrency
- The conversation also delves into the global significance of Bitcoin and its potential to offer economic freedom to people in developing countries
- The speakers express their views on the future of Bitcoin and its impact on the global financial system

- The speaker encourages listeners to develop their own framework for trading Bitcoin
- They emphasize the importance of being sober and honest in assessing market situations
- The speaker shares the importance of engaging in activities that bring happiness, such as picking oranges and touching grass
- The conversation ends with a reminder that the discussion is not investment advice and to do your own research.

- Bitcoin has risen above $50,000, leading to a debate on whether to continue holding or start taking profits
- Potential for a 30% pullback and the need to manage risk carefully is discussed
- Debate on the potential rotation of capital into altcoins and the success of coins related to SEC judgments
- Disinterest in large caps and focus on what crypto natives are investing in, such as AI and DeFi
- Interest in NFTs and their potential for value accrual, as well as the potential impact of an ETH ETF and the SEC's regulatory stance on crypto
- Predictions of a bullish market for crypto under a potential Trump presidency and advice to slowly transition from Bitcoin to altcoins
- Bullish on Ethereum's long-term potential and its use cases, but belief that better returns can be found in NFTs and DeFi
- Discussion on potential use cases for crypto, global significance of Bitcoin, and its potential to offer economic freedom to people in developing countries
- Encouragement for listeners to develop their own framework for trading Bitcoin and to be sober and honest in assessing market situations
- Reminder that the discussion is not investment advice and to do your own research.

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We're are so ₿ack! On today's episode of 1000x, Jonah and Avi discuss recent market price action as Bitcoin rips above $60,000 & ETF flows continue.
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Referenced In The Show:
Bitcoin ETF Flow: https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Welcome back to the first 1000X podcast recorded with Bitcoin above $50,000.

Because the last time we recorded Bitcoin was hovering, I think it was hovering right below, like right below, like 49, 979.

And that as we talked about, it broke, you actually had a little bit of time, you know, solid amount of time.

Once it broke, realized that it broke, sat there, and then you go buy it, which I advocated for, because I think that's generally the best risk adjusted way to play these things if you're a trader.

Now Jonah on the other hand is just an absolute giga chad with balls of steel.

And so has just been sitting massively low on Bitcoin for the entire time and telling everybody not to sell.

Because why would anybody sell when this many flows are coming into this ad?

You know, like I had to give you something, Jonah.

I think this has been an amazing, amazing, amazing run.

I think for the first time, I'm exercising a bit of caution just because it's been so insane.

And you have all time high Bitcoin futures, open interest.

You have a tremendous amount of froth in the market, you have a long money flowing into alts.

I think if there were any point to at least, if you're 100% long, get to 90, is a good point to start taking off some length, in my humble opinion, especially as we approach all-time highs.

So I'm for the first time really thinking, hey, this has been a crazy run.

Maybe it's time to cut back, go to the barbell strategy instead of being super Bitcoin heavy, you're alt heavy and cash heavy.

So I think if we're going to try and, if we're going to try and monetize like some of the chop around here, because, you know, as markets, it doesn't matter whether you're talking about crude oil, crypto or fucking the price of bananas, right?

When markets start to melt up, they get really volatile and the pullbacks get severe.

Now, I'm not watching crypto tick for tick every day anymore like I used to.

Like, if you are watching it tick for tick, you might pay to lighten up and then buy 1 of the inevitable savage dips that happens amidst this sort of upside volatility.

But in terms of being cash heavy, I wouldn't wanna be cash heavy.

And do you think that it's going to 100K promptly?

Do you think these ETF inflows are sustainable?

we've had some crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy inflows.

You go to the Far Side Investors ETF tracker page, it's like 500 mil a day, and it just isn't stopping.

And it's just like your dentist, your grandpa, your doctor, they're all just buying it because now they can.

And we talked about this on the podcast 6 months ago.

We talked about how the ETF launch was not a front-runnable event because there wasn't enough capital in this niche, weird, self-custody little token space to front-run what would get de-bottlenecked by ETFs and institutional asset flows and broader retail.

And to me, it's like the halving hasn't even happened yet.

Maybe the miners are hanging on to BTC right now to sell after the halving, after some expected melt up.

So maybe it doesn't melt up as fast as you expect, but like, come on, that's, you know, what?

3 and an eighth BTC per block less forever?

I just, I can't imagine lightening up before that unless the plan is literally to, you know, trade around the volatility.

I do think if you're 100% long, you should take a bit of profit, but not-

I mean, Jonah, Jonah, three-month futures are now paying out 20% on BTC, I think 17% on ETH.

And generally, historically, even if you've had a tremendous amount of interest in this asset class, that has been the start of the end.

Because when there's that much leverage and that much euphoria, what you tend to get is you tend to get reflexivity towards the downside.

So no matter how many inflows are coming in, no matter how much is unlocked, when you have that amount of leverage in the system, you get these nasty pullbacks and it scares people off from buying.

And I think what I'm trying to say is, 1, you can't put yourself in a position to be carted out right now because this is a more likely time than ever to experience a 30% pullback.

And so you have to manage your risk super tightly here, ridiculously tightly.

And I think The best way to do that is to be allocated to alts that you think can run or that you're comfortable with long-term.

Because I do think capital is going to rotate out of BTC.

Being 150% along BTC here is no longer the right move.

We're actually at 40K, you can make an argument for it.

At 25K, obviously, I think it was a simple argument at 40K, a little bit harder now.

At 25K, obviously, I think it was a simple argument.

Now, I don't think you can make an argument for it.

I don't think there's an argument even to be 100% allocated right now.

To BTC, I think the argument is to be 80%.

And that, by the way, that's still super bullish.

That's still ridiculously bullish, from my perspective.

What I was saying, we agree, but maybe I didn't express my point clearly enough.

I think if you're running tons of leverage here, yeah, you should start to get careful because the vol is about to get insane and there will be some big drawdowns.

But if you're just long, 100% max long allocated cash only no leverage, You can wear a 50% drawdown.

I mean, look, on crypto Twitter, everybody is so like insanely bullish, gloating, victory lapping right now.

You know, In 2021, when we hit these prices in May, the first thing that happened, Avi, is a 50% pullback, just a savage, brutal 50% sell-off to 30K, followed by a rip-roaring explosion to all-time highs.

My personal trading strategy, because I don't use leverage, if it goes to 30K, I'm just gonna buy more, especially if it happens before the halving, and I'm not gonna panic.

But if you're 150% long and you're going to panic if that happens, yeah, you better be lightening up right now.

And to your second point about the rotation to alts, I'm seeing some really compelling arguments on Twitter

to get that rotation into alts this cycle.

But this cycle, we're not going to see rotation to alts because this is just ETF money coming in and it's not DGEN money trying to play frog coins.

That is such a degenerate, stupid fucking lie.

I cannot stand it when people say this shit.

I will actually, whoever tweets this, you have the brain of a monkey.

And like 1 of those small tiny monkeys, not like a gorilla, because gorillas can get to 70 IQ.

And I will explain this in the most simple terms.

It doesn't matter Because if Bitcoin goes up, the people that held it, there are a lot of crypto native people that have held Bitcoin.

And those people will rotate out of Bitcoin.

Meme coins will pump, tick coins will pump, of course alts are gonna go up.

Now, historically, the answer was, it would go from Bitcoin to large cap alts, to mid cap alts, to small cap alts.

Now here's why, you know, these monkeys have some point but they're still incorrect.

That type of rotation might not happen as much because there is less capital that is just coming directly into crypto rails that is buying Bitcoin.

And so they're less likely to filter down the risk curve indiscriminately.

What's most likely to happen is that the people that are already allocated, the original crypto neats are going to take their money that they made on Bitcoin, and they're going to rotate out into the smaller caps and into the quality stuff that they like.

So the crypto insider coins, crypto native coins are probably going to do well as people rotate out.

Your average mid cap, and you're kind of seeing this, Matic has been a bit disappointing, Avax post the major rally has been disappointing.

Solana after the major rally has been disappointing.

And, but what hasn't been disappointing are the meme coins and the AI coins.

Speaking of nailing things, what did we talk...

Literally the 1 specific thing that we talked about on the previous podcast is the SEC getting blown the fuck out and then coins related to SEC judgments doing well.

All of DeFi, Coinbase stock, like the coins that the SEC were trying to strangle, now are ripping.

And so again, these are the types of things that I'm looking for.

I'm not looking to buy your Maddox of the world.

I'm not looking to buy your, I mean, for sure, never a Cosmos.

But basically the large caps, oh, I'm going to rotate down the risk curve.

And I'm going to say the key is to find what the crypto natives are going to get into.

DeFi, I think a good bucket, especially now with the talk about turning on fees and the lack of the SEC coming down.

And then in the crypto, in the ETF world, it's possible that people go and rotate from the ETFs down the risk curve.

Maybe they're going to go buy ETH, maybe they're going to go buy Coinbase stock.

The 1 thing that I cannot explain that I would love for anybody listening to this to comment on if they have some sort of explanation on this.

MSTR is trading right now at a 50% premium to its Bitcoin holdings.

I was always under the impression that after the ETF got launched, that that premium would collapse because people were only buying MSCR to replicate Bitcoin exposure.

But for some reason, MSCR is still ripping.

Another 1 is I didn't expect CME futures to trade at a 20% premium to spot after the ETF launch.

Because now any trad-fi guy can show up, buy, you know, IBIT, the BlackRock ETF, short the CME future and collect basically risk-free arbitrage money.

I do not for the life of me know why that money is there.

Leverage shouldn't trade at that kind of a premium to what is now like totally trad-fi railed Bitcoin.

And in terms of your thesis about, your thesis about altcoins, I agree with it.

I was looking at, I rarely do this, but I actually felt fucking stupid looking at dollar sign MAGA, the Trump coin.

Like how the fuck did I not see that 1 coming?

So I bought a bunch of the Trump NFTs because 1, you get to have dinner with the Donald, and obviously I want to get dinner with the Donald.

I'm going to whisper in his ear to buy all my shit coins.

The second thing is you can resell them and they're such a good play on the Trump presidency, which I'm particularly bullish on.

And I think it's going to be very pro crypto And I think it's going to be very pro-crypto.

And I think it's going to get very meme-y and pepe-y and all this shit.

I just, like my theory, to your point, Abhi, is my favorite altcoin is like CryptoPunks.

I think that I'm mulling buying another punk.

And I think the reason why is, you just watch punks and apes start gassing higher on this.

The longer crypto sustains this rally, the more being invested in crypto is going to become a cool symbol of social status again.

Like there are rumors out there that Bernard Arnault, the LDMH tycoon, his son who runs Tiffany's is bidding 1 of the alien punks.

Like it's if you show up to a date in New York with a Solana Saga phone, like it's not necessarily guaranteed that you're going home without getting laid anymore.

Like these sort of crypto status symbols are kind of, I think they're going to start coming back and it's going to be okay to be invested in crypto again.

Jonah, you ever seduce your wife with a punk?

But I think that I think that for many people, there will be some status attached to crypto again.

If this raid, like let's say that Bitcoin slingshots past 100K, sure it may go to 30K first, but if it slingshots past 100K before the end of next year, like you're cool if you've got crypto.

You're not getting laughed out of the room.

Yeah, the NFT flex is coming back in a large way, and I'm actually pretty excited to see it happen.

I think that's going to be a very, very good investment.

I think they're an amazing flex, super expensive NFT.

You get access to all these people, but the reality of the situation is that-

They're all just as shitty as each other.

There's regular shit rocks, and then there are blue rocks and red rocks.

So there are slightly, there are variations on the rock, Jonah.

Please educate yourself before talking, otherwise you just sound dumb.

I'm not afraid to sound dumb so that other people who listen to us can become smarter.

Like I will sacrifice myself on Twitter or on

It's very kind of you, you know, it really comes from a silkless place in your heart.

Yeah, to get into the rock club because there are 100.

to some private island and make out with each other?

There's no, there are a lot of NDAs that have been signed.

All I'll say is if you go to my Twitter profile, do you check the banner?

So, what I'll say about the rocks are that they are just a pure form of flex.

And the pure NFT flexes, I think will do well.

The squiggles, the auto auto glyphs, the Fidenzas, the punks, That stuff is going to do well I do think there's gonna read there's gonna be a boom again of people trying to launch NFTs I think that that's probably not gonna go so well I think what you're gonna see is you're gonna see more established actual artists release NFTs.

You're going to see brands release NFTs, and that's going to be where a lot of the value accrues.

Trump's releasing NFTs, and there's actually some interest in these things.

And I think that shows you the direction of the NFT market.

So if I'm allocating right now, I definitely want NFT exposure because I'm bullish on ETH.

But I'm not so bullish on ETH that I want to hold a ton of ETH directly.

So I like NFTs because they have 2 tailwinds.

If ETH goes up, they probably go up in aggregate because all the NFTs I'm talking about are effectively issued on ETH.

And then the second thing is that they do have, right, that, that tailwind.

It's basically the ETH tailwind and then the NFT tailwind.

And I like the ETH tailwind, but I'm not super confident on the ETH tailwind.

It's very possible, at this point, ETH ETF gets denied or gets punted or the SEC comes up with some ridiculous argument as to why ETH is a security and therefore, blah, blah, blah, there needs to be litigation and this and this and this and that.

Well, if XRP isn't a security, how, sorry, if XRP isn't a security, how could ETH be a security?

if- Jody, you're asking such amazing logical questions.

But it's the same question as, hey, I mean, look, the SEC jumped the shark when they made the argument that we can't allow a Bitcoin spot ETF because the Bitcoin spot markets are manipulated, but we can allow a Bitcoin futures ETF that settles to a spot reference rate because we can monitor the futures.

They just completely jumped the shark with that argument.

It's so obviously logically flawed that I just don't put anything past them.

The only thing that gives me hope, as we've talked about in the past, is that these guys have just been blown out so many times.

Avi, not, okay, so my opinion on the SEC, like Gary Gensler has gotten so daddied.

They've filed like a hundred lawsuits that are nearly identical, lost the first 10 of them.

The other 90 are going straight down the toilet.

Like they should be ashamed of themselves.

But here's the thing, Avi, this is why I think we're only in phase 1 of the triple whammy here, the hat trick of crypto in 2024.

First thing that happens is the BTC ETF lands.

Third thing, Trump's going to fucking win, right?

And then what happens when Gensler and the entire SEC gets sent packing and we go back to this low or no regulatory regime with a crypto friendly NFT issuing maniac president?

I think it could get pretty fucking degenerate up in here.

And I don't even know if they have time to start denying ETFs, because they're probably all looking for other jobs right now, because they're about to get sent out of Washington DC.

So like, that's the bullish, that's the most honestly more bullish than the halving and more bullish than the ETFs.

The thing that nobody is talking about is the single greatest headwind to crypto.

The headwind that fucked with both you and me in our recent crypto careers is about to get rinsed.

They're literally about to take their own medicine, these guys at the SEC.

Even if Biden wins re-election, they've been so chastened by all of these losses.

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The Bitcoin ETF Impact | 1000x