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Okay, so I'm with Jim Dator and I'm very, very privileged to be interviewing you.

I want to ask you, what is future studies?

The ultimate purpose of future studies is to help individuals and organizations envision and invent their preferred future.

But in order to do that, since most people have not thought seriously and critically about the future, it's necessary to go through a series of activities that gets them out of what I call their crackpot realism about the present and the future.

And so future studies in the whole is a series of activities that enables people to develop more robust images of the future so that they are then able to gain greater control and a sense of control over their future as they move through their personal life and as they help their organization move forward.

Why is it needed for people in the 21st century?

In a sense, it's always been needed, but I think it's essentially, especially so now in the 21st century because for the last 200 years people and organizations have known exactly what the future was supposed to be, what the purpose of life was, and that was continued economic growth, sometimes called progress, sometimes called development, an idea that began in Europe, spread all over the world, and has affected every institution and every individual in the developed and developing world.

But that world, that image, is now highly problematic.

I think has actually, the driving forces of it have come to an end and it's absolutely essential that people individually and collectively scan the alternative futures that are before us and develop a new preferred set of futures themselves and for their communities.

And for you, what, so I'm going to just intercede with an extra question.

So what are some of those alternative visions of the future, alternative futures that for you are most significant for people to think about?

Many years ago, when I first got into future studies, I thought there would be a single future that I could predict.

But the longer I stayed in future studies, the more I surveyed the literature and talked to other people, the more I realize that the future is fundamentally unpredictable.

But there are many alternative futures, but I wanted to find some way to reduce the millions or billions of alternatives to a smaller essential set.

And over the years I've decided there basically are 4 sets of alternative future images in people's mind.

As I said, continued growth is the dominant image, but at the present time and at other times in history, the collapse of continued growth and because of economic or environmental or ethical and moral or other reasons has entered many people's mind.

And perhaps to prevent the collapse, but perhaps to move towards a better way of living than just mindless economic growth, some people want to discipline themselves and their society around a set of natural values or religious values or ideological values that they believe should guide human existence.

Typical futurists, though, focusing on either spiritual or especially technological matters, imagine that we are transforming, or have the potential of transforming ourselves so that we will become fundamentally different beings in fundamentally different societies in the future.

So the 4 alternatives are grow or continue, collapse for a variety of reasons, discipline society around some values and transformation.

So for you, then, what are the critical issues that maybe contextualize those or sit within the context of those

that people need to be thinking about in the 20%?

Well, I have long had a set of lectures and writings under the title of surfing tsunamis of change.

I see that there's a sets of waves coming towards us that we are basically ignoring at the present time and that what we need to do is to scan the horizon for those waves and decide how to surf them.

But more recently I've reduced the 8 or 10 tsunamis down to 3 essential issues.

And I have a metaphor now of the unholy Trinity plus 1.

Unholy Trinity because just like the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit of Christian theology, which are both separate and 1, these 3 issues are separate and often considered separately, but they are in fact related and 1.

And they are the end of the neoliberal economic system that dominated the world from 1980 to

without a new economic system coming into place.

The end of oil, the end of cheap and abundant energy that has dominated the world for the last hundred years, since the discovery of oil only a little over a hundred years ago.

And then the environmental issues of climate change, sea level rise, water scarcity, all the rest.

Those 3 issues are often looked at separately and solutions are found in the other 2, but in fact they're all related and unless we look at them together we will fail to understand.

The unholy trinity plus 1 and 1 is the fact that most governments of the world, which traditionally have been looked to to solve problems like that, are totally dysfunctional and incapable of addressing them.

There are some exceptions, some governments of the world that are still functional, but generally speaking, and at the global level, we don't have any way, communally, to address those 3 problems.

This is a perfect opportunity to segue into the last question, which is, what new ways of thinking or what new worldviews are required to address the Holy Trinity plus 1?

There are several new ways of looking at this, both from an alternative futures point of view and perhaps from a historical point of view.

Many people focus at the present time on globalization.

And globalization is a possibility, but the unholy trinity problematizes that.

Given what I said about the unholy trinity, we're not likely to have the sort of economic and functional globalization that many people mattered.

But if we do, then viewing the world as a whole and viewing us not as members of separate nations but of citizens of the world I think is absolutely essential.

At the same time, paying more attention to local and specific needs is an essential part.


Speaker 0: Okay, so I'm with Jim Dator and I'm very, very privileged to be interviewing you. I want to ask you, what is future studies?

Speaker 1: The ultimate purpose of future studies is to help individuals and organizations envision and invent their preferred future. But in order to do that, since most people have not thought seriously and critically about the future, it's necessary to go through a series of activities that gets them out of what I call their crackpot realism about the present and the future. And so future studies in the whole is a series of activities that enables people to develop more robust images of the future so that they are then able to gain greater control and a sense of control over their future as they move through their personal life and as they help their organization move forward.

Speaker 2: Why is it needed for people in the 21st century?

Speaker 1: In a sense, it's always been needed, but I think it's essentially, especially so now in the 21st century because for the last 200 years people and organizations have known exactly what the future was supposed to be, what the purpose of life was, and that was continued economic growth, sometimes called progress, sometimes called development, an idea that began in Europe, spread all over the world, and has affected every institution and every individual in the developed and developing world. But that world, that image, is now highly problematic. I think has actually, the driving forces of it have come to an end and it's absolutely essential that people individually and collectively scan the alternative futures that are before us and develop a new preferred set of futures themselves and for their communities.

Speaker 2: And for you, what, so I'm going to just intercede with an extra question. So what are some of those alternative visions of the future, alternative futures that for you are most significant for people to think about?

Speaker 1: Many years ago, when I first got into future studies, I thought there would be a single future that I could predict. But the longer I stayed in future studies, the more I surveyed the literature and talked to other people, the more I realize that the future is fundamentally unpredictable. But there are many alternative futures, but I wanted to find some way to reduce the millions or billions of alternatives to a smaller essential set. And over the years I've decided there basically are 4 sets of alternative future images in people's mind. As I said, continued growth is the dominant image, but at the present time and at other times in history, the collapse of continued growth and because of economic or environmental or ethical and moral or other reasons has entered many people's mind.

And perhaps to prevent the collapse, but perhaps to move towards a better way of living than just mindless economic growth, some people want to discipline themselves and their society around a set of natural values or religious values or ideological values that they believe should guide human existence. Typical futurists, though, focusing on either spiritual or especially technological matters, imagine that we are transforming, or have the potential of transforming ourselves so that we will become fundamentally different beings in fundamentally different societies in the future. So the 4 alternatives are grow or continue, collapse for a variety of reasons, discipline society around some values and transformation.

Speaker 2: So for you, then, what are the critical issues that maybe contextualize those or sit within the context of those

Speaker 0: that people need to be thinking about in the 20%?

Speaker 1: Well, I have long had a set of lectures and writings under the title of surfing tsunamis of change. I see that there's a sets of waves coming towards us that we are basically ignoring at the present time and that what we need to do is to scan the horizon for those waves and decide how to surf them. But more recently I've reduced the 8 or 10 tsunamis down to 3 essential issues. And I have a metaphor now of the unholy Trinity plus 1. Unholy Trinity because just like the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit of Christian theology, which are both separate and 1, these 3 issues are separate and often considered separately, but they are in fact related and 1.

And they are the end of the neoliberal economic system that dominated the world from 1980 to

Speaker 0: 2007

Speaker 1: without a new economic system coming into place. The end of oil, the end of cheap and abundant energy that has dominated the world for the last hundred years, since the discovery of oil only a little over a hundred years ago. And then the environmental issues of climate change, sea level rise, water scarcity, all the rest. Those 3 issues are often looked at separately and solutions are found in the other 2, but in fact they're all related and unless we look at them together we will fail to understand. The unholy trinity plus 1 and 1 is the fact that most governments of the world, which traditionally have been looked to to solve problems like that, are totally dysfunctional and incapable of addressing them.

There are some exceptions, some governments of the world that are still functional, but generally speaking, and at the global level, we don't have any way, communally, to address those 3 problems.

Speaker 2: This is a perfect opportunity to segue into the last question, which is, what new ways of thinking or what new worldviews are required to address the Holy Trinity plus 1?

Speaker 1: There are several new ways of looking at this, both from an alternative futures point of view and perhaps from a historical point of view. Many people focus at the present time on globalization. And globalization is a possibility, but the unholy trinity problematizes that. Given what I said about the unholy trinity, we're not likely to have the sort of economic and functional globalization that many people mattered. But if we do, then viewing the world as a whole and viewing us not as members of separate nations but of citizens of the world I think is absolutely essential.

At the same time, paying more attention to local and specific needs is an essential part. Okay.

Speaker 0: Thanks very much.

See all Jose Ramos transcripts on Vimeo

Why Futures Studies? An Interview with Jim Dator