- The video is a weekly roundup episode of Bell Curve.
- The co-hosts' views are their own and do not represent any organization.
- The episode is sponsored by Maverick Protocol, a liquidity tool suite for DeFi.
- The hosts discuss the ongoing SBF trial and Michael Lewis' book about FTX.
- They criticize Lewis' portrayal of FTX as a profitable business and his incorrect representation of the facts.
- They question Lewis' motives and accuracy in his writing.
- They mention the trial's potential impact on the narrative presented by Lewis and SBF.

- Maverick is a platform that enables LPs and token pairs to process higher volume with limited TVL, supporting high levels of capital efficiency for LSTs like Rapsteve.
- Maverick has the feature of Maverick Boosted Positions, which allows protocols to target the liquidity of any token pair precisely.
- Maverick is backed by leading institutions in crypto, including Founders Fund, Pantera, Coinbase Ventures, and Finance Lab.
- The speaker discusses the potential length of the legal case involving FTX and the likelihood of a shorter sentence.
- The speaker also mentions the sentencing of Bernie Madoff and Elizabeth Holmes for securities fraud violations.
- The speaker questions the narrative of a bank run and discusses the unanswered questions in the case, including the hack and the identity of Chef Nomi.
- The speaker speculates on the source of Alameda's funds and the motivations behind SBF's actions.
- The speaker discusses the utility of high-risk bets and the potential motivations behind SBF's actions.
- The speaker mentions the possibility of paying off debts and influencing political outcomes with large amounts of capital.
- The speaker brings up the relationship between Michael Lewis and Kevin O'Leary and questions the trustworthiness of O'Leary's statements against Binance.

- IEX, the Investors Exchange, has not been successful as an exchange.
- FTX and IEX had joint meetings with the SEC for safe harbor US operations in March 2022.
- In April 2022, FTX US announced a small and strategic investment in IEX worth $270 million.
- Michael Lewis is closely following SBF and IEX, possibly for a book similar to Flashboys.
- The claims market for FTX is not efficient, with few big claims being traded.
- Vitalik wrote about enshrining more things in the Ethereum protocol, discussing various categories.
- Vitalik's take on enshrining Rocketpool in ETH was balanced, but some leaders at the Ethereum Foundation are concerned about the protocol.
- There are concerns about Lido's governance token and the decentralization of Lido.
- The validator queue for staking ETH has decreased by 90%.
- There may not be a need to change dynamics or limits in the staking ecosystem.

- The growth of LSDs (Liquid Staked Derivatives) is slowing down and market sentiment may change as a result.
- Certain features, like account abstraction, should be part of the protocol itself rather than developed by third parties.
- Staking activity is expected to increase with positive price movement and the availability of more yield through restaking and collateral-backed protocols.
- Lido, a staking service, is likely to continue growing and decentralizing.
- The author disagrees with the philosophy of enshrining certain projects or features, as it may hinder entrepreneurship and innovation.
- The lack of transparent rules for determining what is ETH aligned is criticized.
- Consumers should prioritize safety and not be expected to support smaller providers solely based on decentralization values.
- The author believes that the current debate is influenced by Twitter and is likely a temporary issue.
- Various trends and movements in the crypto space have come and gone, and this debate is likely to follow suit.

- The video discusses various topics including the crypto hub in Malta, the enshrinement debate in Cosmos, the governance differences between Cosmos and Ethereum, the launch of ETH futures, and the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC.
- The video mentions the success of the ETH futures launch despite initial low volume, and highlights the regulatory clarity for Ethereum as a result.
- It also mentions the speculation about the impact of futures on spot prices and the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the near future.
- VanEck is praised for their involvement in the crypto space and their approach to marketing and long-term commitment.
- The video briefly mentions a minor win for XRP in relation to an appeal filed by the SEC.

- The SEC's appeal against Ripple was struck down, but they still have the option to come back
- The judge denied the SEC's request for an interlocutory appeal, meaning the case against Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen will continue
- The timeline for the case may be pushed back to a post-2024 timeline, with the possibility of appeals
- The Ripple decision only applies to Ripple and does not set a new framework for others
- Entrepreneurs in the crypto space are feeling emboldened and less scared of regulatory actions
- The need for new regulations to create a framework for entrepreneurship in the US crypto space is emphasized
- The macroeconomic situation and bond market are discussed, with potential implications for other asset sectors
- Commercial real estate in San Francisco is facing challenges, with a lack of market liquidity and financing options
- The bond market is explained, with the Federal Reserve's role and potential impact on prices and yields.

- The speaker believes that there is no future scenario where the US can run large deficits without having to buy its own bonds.
- The speaker mentions that bank balance sheets and pension funds are forced buyers of these bonds.
- They suggest that the fixed income market is the most likely to break, with potential issues in bond prices.
- The speaker mentions Joseph Wang, who has been predicting higher yields and now believes there is a lack of buyers.
- They suggest that yield curve control (or QE) will be implemented to address the situation.
- The speaker notes that inflation is not the driving force behind rising rates, but rather a supply-demand issue.
- They mention the BTFP facility as a form of soft yield curve control, but highlight that the Fed is still the largest buyer.
- The UK has also implemented a similar lending facility for non-banking financial institutions.
- The speaker argues that buying bonds again is necessary, citing the example of Silicon Valley Bank's failure due to rising interest rates.
- They conclude by emphasizing the need for consequences and making responsible decisions in the market.

- The video is a weekly roundup episode of Bell Curve discussing various topics in the crypto space.
- The hosts criticize Michael Lewis' portrayal of FTX and question his motives and accuracy in his book.
- The ongoing SBF trial and its potential impact on the narrative presented by Lewis and SBF are discussed.
- Maverick Protocol, a liquidity tool suite for DeFi, is mentioned as the episode's sponsor.
- Maverick enables LPs and token pairs to process higher volume with limited TVL and is backed by leading institutions in crypto.
- The speaker speculates on the source of Alameda's funds and the motivations behind SBF's actions.
- The speaker discusses the potential length of the legal case involving FTX and the likelihood of a shorter sentence.
- The sentencing of Bernie Madoff and Elizabeth Holmes for securities fraud violations is mentioned.
- Various topics such as enshrining projects in Ethereum, staking ETH, and the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC are discussed.
- The success of the ETH futures launch, the involvement of VanEck in the crypto space, and a minor win for XRP in relation to an appeal filed by the SEC are mentioned.
- The macroeconomic situation, challenges in the commercial real estate market in San Francisco, and potential issues in the bond market are discussed.
- The speaker emphasizes the need for new regulations to create a framework for entrepreneurship in the US crypto space and the importance of making responsible decisions in the market.

With the opening of the Sam Bankman-Fried trial this week, the fellas kick things off with their thoughts on Michael Lewis’ controversial new book‘Going Infinite’, which explores the story of FTX’s collapse. The guys then take stock of Vitalik’s latest proposal around Enshrinement, and whether the logic should be natively implemented in the core code of L1s. We then discuss Stride’s potential plans to become the enshrined LST protocol for Cosmos Hub. We then review the state of ETH Futures, XRP’s latest win vs the SEC, before closing out with our outlook on macro, as long-term US Yields Hit a 16-year high. Enjoy!
- -
Maverick Protocol is a DeFi infrastructure provider focused on increasing industry efficiency, powered by Maverick AMM. Maverick helps token projects, DAO treasuries, liquidity providers or anyone in DeFi shape their liquidity with efficiency and flexibility. In other words, Maverick makes your liquidity smarter. 
Shape liquidity for your token today on Maverick at https://app.mav.xyz/bellcurve  
- -
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:54) Michael Lewis’ ‘Going Infinite’ review: an SBF/FTX plant? 
(09:24) “Maverick Ad”
(10:38) Michael Lewis’ ‘Going Infinite’ review: an SBF/FTX plant? 
(24:38) Enshrinement
(40:24) Stride: The Enshrined LST Protocol for Cosmos Hub?
(44:20) ETH Futures
(49:38) XRP Win: SEC Appeal Denied
(55:18) Macro Outlook: Bond Sell-off, Long-term US Yields Hit 16-year High
- -
Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_
Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism
Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/im_manderson

Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9
Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmD
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Bell Curve, you can use code "BELLCURVE10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
- -
Resources:
Vitalik Buterin: Should Ethereum be okay with enshrining more things in the protocol?
https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/09/30/enshrinement.html

Stride: The Enshrined LST Protocol for Cosmos Hub?
https://blockworks.co/news/stride-merge-cosmos-hub-network
- -
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

All right, everyone, welcome back to another episode of Bell Curve.

Before we jump in, quick disclaimer, the views expressed by my co-host today are their personal views and they do not represent the views of any organization with which the co-hosts are associated with.

Nothing in the episode is construed or relied upon as financial, technical, tax, legal, or other advice, you know the deal.

you by Maverick Protocol, a suite of liquidity tools built around an innovative AMM.

Maverick helps token projects, Dow Treasuries, LPs, or basically anyone in DeFi shape their liquidity with efficiency and flexibility.

Stick around and you're going to be hearing about them more later.

All right, everyone, welcome back to another weekly roundup at Bellcurve.

Why don't we start with talking about, obviously we have the SBF trial that's going on right now.

We're just talking a little bit before we can get into some of the details about the trial, which I feel like there have been a couple of tidbits that have trickled out.

Nothing that we didn't really know going in.

I think the 1 thing that has surprised people, I think maybe not you guys, but I was surprised by the takes of Michael Lewis actually in the book going infinite.

So obviously Michael Lewis, the backstory here for folks who didn't know is before FTX was revealed to be a fraud and all the criminal activity that was going on there, alleged criminal activity that was going on there, Michael Lewis was planted.

And we can get into this kind of an interesting backstory.

Nick Carter has a really great thread about the IEX Lewis relationship.

He obviously wrote Flash Boys, which was the accusation being sort of an advertisement for IEX.

FTX has a big financial relationship with IEX, so maybe there's some kind of relationship there.

But either way, Lewis found himself a plant for about 6 months in FTX offices.

This book was being written, obviously, then FTX imploded.

At least my assumption was going to be that He probably did a lot of work, but he's going to have to rewrite it.

He came out and did a 60 Minutes interview and a whole bunch of other publicity, essentially with the through line being these were some kids.

They had a profitable business, but they just got in way over their heads and now there is quote this SBF sized hole in the world.

The other blatantly or glaringly incorrect representation of the facts is that this was a bank run.

And there can only be a bank run if you have under collateralization in a system because you don't have all the money available to be able to pay people back.

And even if it is denominated in something else, you know, we've talked about on this podcast 9 months ago about how it was pretty clear that there was rotation from assets that they didn't like into assets that they did like.

So even if you didn't have a 1 to 1 backing of the assets that people deposited into into FTX, let's say someone puts in a Bitcoin and they're going to sell the Bitcoin and maybe buy something like FTT or maps or something that they were trying to promote.

Even if you didn't have that 1 to 1, you should have the value to back up all of the deposits, especially if you have a highly profitable business.

You know, that's not how That's not how banks work.

And hence why if you have a bank run, you do, based off of Basel requirements, have to have a certain amount of cash and treasuries and liquidity to be able to backstop the amount of loans or balance sheet that you develop as a bank.

A bank run is not possible with a one-to-one backed exchange.

I had a couple of reporters reach out to me about, you know, like, why do you believe this business wasn't profitable?

So people only wanted to trade on FTX because you could trade against Alameda.

You could trade all these basically shitcoin perps that they launched and then subsequently destroyed.

Like they were the initial liquidity providers.

If you remember the Stargate, IEO, they bought all of those tokens and then proceeded to cede the perp and trade against people.

And Alameda was so bad at trading that they had to steal customer deposits to backfill the shortages.

Like ipso facto, this was not a profitable business.

It was just margin that was being internalized and then lost by Alameda.

And that's really the only reason that people wanted to trade there.

Same thing with soul, you know, same thing with the Holy Trinity of like serum soul.

There's a third 1, but like, this was not a profitable business.

And I think the only other surprises to me are like just the I've read parts of the excerpts on Twitter like some of the details are so sorted that Michael Lewis is sharing.

Do you see the 1 where he's like going through all the women that SBF slept with and like SBF was like whispering him this to him?

It's like Lewis like do you need to go to horny jail?

Like what is what is wrong with you, man?

Like, you know, he's like he was like, you know different girls every night of the week and like windmill dunking.

He just a picture of a person that was totally enamored by SPF and For some reason won't let it go and I wonder if it's because of stupidity, if it's because of incentives, or if it's because there's something he's trying to like ex post facto rationalize for himself or his audience.

But it's funny, I've seen a lot of Twitter comments from like ex Solomon traders, which is where he used to work.

And they said, you know, it's good to see Michael get exposed as a midwit that couldn't make it as a trader.

It was a terrible at sales and is likely to fall for, you know, the the sordid song of, you know, some random guy who pretend he's a billionaire for a short period of time.

I think, you know, he's just frankly gotten this 1 completely wrong.

He wrote Liar's Poker thinking that it would be this entire expose of the bond trading shenanigans that were going on at Salomon Brothers and it would destroy the industry, it'd take down the culture of finance.

It did nothing more than engender a culture of finance bros for multiple decades.

It was like the Wolf of Wall Street, right?

He may understand how to sell books, but I don't think he understands the culture around the things that he's writing about.

The first thing that I actually thought about when I was watching all of this, and I'm conscious of the fact that we live in a little bit of a bubble and we're really into the details and it's like, hey, it's the thing that you really care about and now you're raising your hand.

But my first thought was, man, maybe we gave the HFT guys a hard time.

And I think it's sort of an open secret that anyone that works in high-frequency trading is like, this book's not accurate.

And what struck me, I think there are 2 levels to this.

And 1, I was listening to this interview that he gave.

It wasn't the 60 Minutes interview, but I was struck by it.

It's not like he got it wrong, a little bit wrong.

And the phrase that he used was, he keeps calling it a profitable business, which it just wasn't a profitable business.

So there's just a factual inconsistency there.

But the way he describes it is there was this profitable casino, FTX, and then there was Alameda.

And if it hadn't been for Alameda, then FTX could have gone on and survived.

Remember, we had a conversation when FTX was imploding and we all were like, hey, well, Which 1 do you think he actually wanted?

And the answer is Alameda because FTX was never real, but Alameda was the vehicle that he was using to siphon all of the wealth out of FTX.

So to paint it like that from Michael Lewis is just So incorrect, but it's almost too perfectly incorrect.

And then you start to look at it on multiple instances and you're thinking to yourself, wait a second, this happens multiple times.

I think His explanation was completely wrong, pretty disgusting, no respect for victims.

And the weird part is like, in the 60 minutes interview, he's like, you know, what was he really doing?

You know, stealing or, you know, rehypothecating money from just crypto traders, like who really cares about them?

You know, he was going to give Trump $5 billion not to run.

It's like, no, those don't make it OK to steal from people, A.

And B, the chances that that Trump phone call ever happened, I'm putting that at about 1%.

Like, who knows what Michael Lewis was fed, where his primary sources of information were, how much SPF was just bullshitting and making up as he went along.

What will be very interesting, I think, is what the ultimate outcome of this trial is.

Because in a certain way, it's kind of putting the story that Michael Lewis purported, which as you just said, is the same story that SBF is trying to put forward in court.

It puts that case on trial, that storyline.

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Let's talk about the over under on years.

I mean, Vance and I have talked about this.

Federal crimes, you also don't get good behavior, out early dynamics on either.

So he'll be there for however long he gets.

I would say 20 is probably the right number.

I would take the, sadly I would take the under on that.

165 and then Elizabeth Holmes for securities laws violations, The sentencing rubric that she received was 1 year for every $11 million of fraud.

And it was found to be that there was approximately $121 million of fraud.

And really what that represents is when she went to go and raise 121000000 dollars from investors, there was misinformation.

There were there was deliberate fraud about the representations of the company and people put in 121000000 dollars and then it obviously went to 0.

So that was sort of the black and white of what happened with her in 11 years for $121 million of fraud.

1 thing I'm very confused about is why this narrative is still hitting of a bank run.

And I don't feel like that's a huge logical leap to make.

I don't think that's something that you need to have a background in this industry to understand.

There shouldn't have been rehypothecation going on.

I don't know enough about the case or about the law to know the minutiae of what else they could use.

But if you just use the same rubric that was used in the Theranos case, you know, how much money did FTX raise on false pretenses and how much was raised deliberately misrepresenting, You know, all of the things that they had, all, you know, the connections with Alameda, the use of funds, the profitability, like if anything's incorrect on that pitch deck, you know, coincidentally, Matt Huan is taking the stand today.

He is a defense witness today from Paradigm.

And so I think part of the case is going to be representing that.

And in that case, you know, it looks bigger than, you know, I don't know if they can prove it.

I don't know what's going on in the case outside of what we hear afterwards.

But I do think that there is a through line there in terms of just pure securities fraud.

The unanswered questions for me are probably the most interesting part.

I put 1 of them, you know, which is like what happened with that hack?

You know, right, I guess it was November 9th or whatever that day was, you know, the 500 million that was stolen, who did it, who owns it, where's the money because it's moving around right now.

A lot of it's wash trading NFTs on Solana and some sort of like weird laundering operation.

The other 1 I'm really curious on is the identity of Chef Nomi and whether we will learn that and if it was SBF.

Because 1 thing that I'm curious about is, you know, Alameda started as a programmatic trading firm and they started with 170 and then they got redeemed down to like 30 or 40.

And then somehow that turns into tens of billions of dollars in tokens at some point.

My theory is that SBF is probably Chef Nomi, that he was basically the large scale industrial farmer of sushi.

Turn that money around farming sushi at $20, like a $5 billion market cap where they gave away 100% of the supply, takes that, that's basically his capitalization base, invest in Solana, log wealth ensues.

But there is like this missing middle of like, bro, you didn't make billions doing this Kimji Arb where you lost the Ripple token way, like what happened in the middle?

That would be 1 thing I would be looking forward to understanding.

And Shkreli, who knows, he's like a court reporter now, which is great.

He's like, you know, he's like, he's like showing up live feed and the whole thing.

That's what he says he thinks is going to happen.

We're missing the whole middle part of the story.

I would love for us to be able to uncover that.

I think the government is just gonna take a stance that like, listen, we have, you know, parts of this case that are just dead to rights.

We don't need to confuse or, you know, add other flavors to this whole thing.

We're just going to do the even, you know, very straightforward path that that I hope that we find out more, but I unfortunately think it's just going to be like, let's do this.

I would settle for the right outcome happening.

My curiosity wants to know, but I'd be happy if just we get the right outcome here.

The other stuff that I've just like been thinking about as I read through the case and just the different things is there's this line.

I think we've talked about it before where, you know, what's what's the utility of a bet where you keep doubling up and you can do it infinitely until you get infinitely wealth wealthy or you go to 0.

And like SBF has always thought of this as like the St.

Petersburg paradox and it's like a highly valuable game for him because he would just always keep betting, keep trying to double up until he gets to infinity wealth.

And in his own words, like lock into this hugely valuable existence.

That really was like kind of the underpinning of everything that he was doing, his risk management style, his trading style, like taking these huge bets where the payoff would be 100x to 1.

It kind of just feels like that's how he ran the exchange too.

He's like, you know, if I get caught, I go to jail.

But if I don't, you know, I become the wealthiest person on the planet and I can do all this effective altruism bullshit.

You know where that doesn't line up though is, don't you hit some amount of money where you just don't need, I mean, a lot, right?

I mean, what can you really do with 10 billion that you can do with 1 outside of like the mega yacht, right?

I think the hundreds of billions range gives you like nation state status, which is kind of, you know, even the Bahamas thing, it kind of all lines up with that.

Like, you know, he's, I mean, whether this phone call happened or not with Trump, I don't think it did, but like, he's like, you know, I can give him 5 billion not to run.

He was also talking to the Bohemian government about paying off all of their debt, allegedly.

There's all these little tidbits that are coming out, and the only way that you could possibly think about paying 5 here and 8 here, and pretty soon those small numbers will become a really large number, is if you're thinking in terms of hundreds of billions.

And, you know, that that I think is probably where he was shooting.

I also think, you know, maybe there was some truth to him thinking that, okay, you're right, though, like, Mike, you're right, There's no possible way that a human can spend that level of money over their lifetime other than if they're doing things like what we're talking about, which is buying this get out of jail free card in the Bahamas, making sure the Democrats win next time, you know, against Trump.

All that type of stuff is, is as Van said, nation state level capital.

So the Michael Lewis excerpt where he's like, no, like Tom Brady really was his friend.

You know, they had this very special way.

Kevin O'Leary, $15.7 million for 20 hours of work.

How much do you trust all of that Kevin O'Leary saber rattling against Binance in favor of FTX right as FTX was collapsing?

I actually meant to bring my tinfoil hat.

But the relationship that we were talking about with Lewis too, because folks that might not be aware of this.

So I mean, for those of you who read Flash Boys, Flash Boys was 1 of these books that Lewis wrote about HFTs.

And the way that it was portrayed was people didn't understand what was going on.

There was this nefarious force for why people weren't getting the execution that they thought they should.

It's this world of high frequency trading.

And it sort of portrayed, in the same way, the big short sort of lionizes the short sellers of the time, the Michael Burrys and blanking on the other names, but sort of lionizes that group.

There was this group of insiders within institutional finances as well, who were aware of this HFT problem, these predators that were preying on everyone.

And what it wound up with was the creation of this exchange, IEX.

Now, IEX is pretty much, can we just call it, I mean, it's not successful.

It has not largely been successful as an exchange.

And it's supposed to be much more friendly for investors, but no 1 really wants it.

And just to be clear, this started as a, you know, equities securities exchange, had nothing to do with crypto.

So timeline here, and this is all just, this just comes right from Nick Carter here doing his little investigative, him and Matt are actually in another life.

Like in March of 2022, FTX and IEX pre-partnership hold joint meetings with the SEC aiming for safe harbor US operations.

April 2022, FTX US announces an investment in IEX.

The deal is described as small and strategic, size not disclosed.

Later emerges that it's 270 million, described as a controlling stake, as reported by the Financial Times, large stake with the option to buy.

May slash June of 2022, Michael Lewis begins closely shadowing SBF in order to write a hagiography presumably similar in tone to Flashboys.

Summer of 22 against Gensler keep meetings with I x and FT x is lobbying Congress.

So yeah, I mean, the timeline I clearly if Michael Lewis wrote this book about IEX, he knows Ronan and all the guys over at IEX.

also IEX is the protagonist of the Flash Boys story.

You know, the book ends with like, and these guys are going to fix it.

you think the chances are Michael Lewis introduced IEX to FTX?

I wonder if Michael Lewis has any financial incentive in IEX or otherwise.

I don't think we're going to find it out exactly.

1 last thing, just because I want to leave FTX here, but do you guys understand, how does the claims market work for FTX?

So I was kind of looking at this a little bit this week.

Anthropic, the AI company that FTX invested in, it's actually been doing pretty well.

Then a couple of days after Google, it looks like they're going to put in an additional $2 billion at around a $20 to $30 billion valuation.

I think I saw they're trading between 30 and 40 cents on the dollar.

I don't know if that implies more recovery for that.

mean, there's been basically no big claims that have traded.

Despite everyone saying to the contrary, I do think that Galois sold theirs at like 14, 15 cents on the dollar, which like sounds bad, but also Kevin can make money and like having the capital.

Opportunity cost is, you know, expect this in years.

And you know, it's amazing that Anthropic has been doing so well and that, you know, the recovery might be higher than initially expected, but Anthropic isn't exactly a liquid asset either.

And it's not being valued properly either.

See all Bell Curve transcripts on Applepodcasts

The SBF/FTX Trial Begins, The Future of Ethereum, Another XRP Win & More | Round Up