Elon Musk's fourth appearance on the Lex Friedman Podcast.

Introduction

Discussion on the nature of war throughout human history.

The Nature of War

Exploration of the role of war in human nature and society.

War and Human Nature

Comparison of chimpanzee societies and human societies in terms of violence and war.

War in Chimpanzee Societies

Discussion on violent strategies and their consequences.

Strategies of Violence

Elon Musk's perspective on the war in Israel and Gaza.

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Recommendations for achieving peace and minimizing human suffering in Israel and Gaza.

Path to Peace in Israel-Gaza Conflict

Discussion on the possibility and consequences of nuclear war.

Nuclear War

Analysis of the ongoing war in Ukraine and potential paths to peace.

War in Ukraine

Exploration of the risks and ways to avoid a war between the US and China.

Potential War Between US and China

Insights into the Chinese culture and the importance of understanding each other.

Understanding China

China believes that Taiwan is a fundamental part of China and should be incorporated peacefully or militarily. They view the US Pacific Fleet as the only reason Taiwan hasn't been incorporated yet.

China's View on Taiwan

Conspicuous acts of kindness can be a path to avoid wars by appealing to the goodness in human nature.

Conspicuous Acts of Kindness as Geopolitical Policy

The Treaty of Versailles after World War I, which blamed Germany for the war, laid the seeds for World War II. After World War II, helping rebuild Germany and other countries was a better approach.

Lessons from World War I and II

The philosophy of curiosity is based on expanding the scope and scale of consciousness to understand the questions about the universe.

The Philosophy of Curiosity

The goal of AI is to adhere to the truth of the universe as closely as possible, starting with physics first principles and minimizing confidently wrong answers.

The Pursuit of Truth in AI

AI should be able to figure out new physics and push towards a theory of everything. Engineering has a greater range of possibilities once the rules of the universe are understood.

The Future of Physics and Engineering

The nature of consciousness, thought, and emotions is still unknown. AI may help pave the path to discovering the underlying truths.

The Mystery of Consciousness

It is essential for humanity to become multi-planetary to ensure survival and avoid annihilation. This opportunity may be limited.

Becoming a Multi-Planetary Civilization

There is currently no evidence of aliens, but the possibility of subtle and protective aliens cannot be ruled out. The Fermi paradox raises questions about the existence of other civilizations.

The Existence of Aliens

The purpose of existence may be to explore and see what happens. If we are in a simulation, the creators run it because they don't know what will happen.

The Purpose and Simulation of Existence

Defeating Hatred Incarnate in Diablo's Eternal Realm, especially as a druid, is extremely difficult and tests one's gaming skills.

The Challenge of Defeating Hatred in Diablo

Video games provide a calming effect and a state of flow. They offer beautiful art, engaging storylines, and puzzles to solve.

The Enjoyment of Video Games

Elden Ring is considered a candidate for the best game ever. It is known for its difficulty and stunning art.

Elden Ring: The Greatest Game

The Druid and Eternal against Ubalilith is the hardest boss battle in the video game. It requires strategy and progress to overcome.

The Hardest Boss Battle

The video game simulation prompts thoughts about hate and progress. It raises questions about the suppression of progress and the consequences of eternal peace.

The Simulation of Progress

Soma is a fictional drug in Brave New World that raises questions about artificial happiness and the role of drugs in society.

Soma: The Drug in Brave New World

Efficiently training AI models is a challenge due to the need for a large amount of compute. The demand for electricity will grow with the electrification of transport and AI.

The Limits of Efficiency in AI

Regulatory oversight is needed to ensure the safe development of AI. An objective third party can voice concerns and provide oversight.

Regulatory Oversight for AI

The bureaucratic challenges faced in various industries, such as the approval process for rocket launches and concerns about wildlife, highlight the absurdity of human civilization.

The Absurdity of Bureaucracy

Open sourcing AI models can promote collaboration and safety. Delayed open sourcing with proper curation of data can be beneficial.

Open Sourcing AI

Discussion about the need to improve the signal to noise ratio on the X platform and the use of AI for recommended posts.

Improving Signal to Noise

Exploration of the challenges in recommending posts and replies on the X platform, including the need for better AI algorithms.

Challenges with Post Recommendations

Discussion about the complexity of recommending posts from accounts users don't follow and the need for fast and distributed algorithms.

The Fascinating Problem of Post Recommendations

Exploration of the potential of using AI and vector correlation for post recommendations, including analyzing long-form content like videos and movies.

The Role of AI in Post Recommendations

Discussion about the effectiveness of Community Notes in providing diverse viewpoints and countering the woke mind virus, as well as the need for more empathy and humor in online interactions.

Community Notes and the Battle Against the Woke Mind Virus

Exploration of political perspectives, trust issues, and the challenges of existing in a world where everyone wants something from you.

Political Perspectives and Trust

Exploring the impact of cynicism on behavior and the importance of critical feedback.

The Influence of Cynicism

Discussing the prevalence of negative news and the evolutionary origins of the negativity bias.

Negativity Bias in Media

Examining the capabilities of Tesla Autopilot and its convergence with language models.

Tesla Autopilot and AI

Comparing the computer efficiency of Tesla's approach to AGI with the potential of self-supervised learning.

Efficiency and Progress of AI

Highlighting the challenges and progress in developing real-world AI for humanoid robotics.

Developing Optimus and Real-World AI

Reflecting on personal experiences, forgiveness, and the beauty of life through the eyes of children.

Personal Reflections and Hope for the Future

## Understanding War and Peace: Insights from Elon Musk

**In this issue:**

- The Nature of War
- The Path to Peace
- The Threat of Nuclear War
- China's Perspective

### The Nature of War

Elon Musk recently discussed the nature of war and its historical significance in a conversation with Lex Friedman. He highlighted the role of conquest and excellence in warfare in the rise and fall of empires throughout human history. Musk also emphasized the importance of intelligence in controlling the instinct for violence, comparing human society to chimpanzee society, which is full of violence and lacks ethics.

### The Path to Peace

While war has always existed and may continue to do so in the future, Musk is a proponent of peace. He believes that ignorance is the real enemy and that countering it should be the focus, rather than fighting other humans. Musk suggests that acts of kindness and transparency can thwart the goals of those seeking conflict. He recommends that Israel, for example, engage in conspicuous acts of kindness to counter the aggression of Hamas and promote peace.

### The Threat of Nuclear War

Musk acknowledges the possibility of nuclear war as a civilizational threat. Although the current probability of nuclear war is low, the presence of nuclear weapons remains a concern. Musk emphasizes the need to prioritize civilizational risks and avoid conflicts that could lead to the end of human progress.

### China's Perspective

Musk also shares his insights on China, highlighting the country's impressive architecture, history, and the abundance of smart and hardworking individuals. He believes that China, like the United States, is not acquisitive and has historically been internally focused. However, he acknowledges the potential for conflict between superpowers and the importance of understanding each other's cultures to maintain peace.

### The Power of Cynicism

In the latest installment of his conversation with Lex Friedman, Elon Musk delves into the topic of cynicism. He expresses his belief that cynics often use their own bad behavior to justify it, claiming that everyone does it. Musk sees cynicism as a red flag and urges people to be wary of those who exhibit true cynicism. He also points out the tendency of society to focus on the negative and highlights the importance of celebrating others' achievements instead of tearing them down.

### The Convergence of AI and Robotics

Musk discusses the convergence of AI and robotics, specifically in the context of Tesla Autopilot and the development of Optimus, a humanoid robot. He highlights the ability of AI systems to learn and understand the world through video, similar to how humans perceive the world through their eyes. Musk also emphasizes the importance of efficiency in AI and robotics, drawing parallels between the energy efficiency of the human brain and the need for computer efficiency in AI systems.

Stay tuned for the next issue, where we will continue exploring the fascinating insights shared by Elon Musk.

Understanding War and Peace: Insights from Elon Musk

To provoke an aggressive response from Israel

To rally Muslims worldwide for the cause of Gaza and Palestine

Engage in acts of kindness and be transparent about it

Massive casualties with no significant changes

Taiwan should be part of the United States

What is the I in AGI and human intelligence?

Either everything is conscious or nothing is conscious

They make the speaker want to pull their hair out.

They have beautiful art and engaging storylines.

It is the hardest game the speaker has ever played.

It has beautiful art and is designed by an alien.

It is a candidate for the best game ever.

They are the hardest boss battles in the game.

It is the hardest boss battle in the game.

It is the easiest boss battle in the game.

It is the most enjoyable boss battle in the game.

It is the longest boss battle in the game.

It is a fictional drug used in Brave New World.

It is a muscle relaxant used to treat muscle pain.

It is a mood-altering hallucinogenic drug.

It is a sedative that makes you feel drowsy.

It is a fictional drug used to explore philosophical questions.

It is a real drug that alters the activity between neurons.

It is a powerful symbol of the dangers of drug use.

It is a drug that keeps the population docile and content.

They are necessary components for human flourishing.

They should be minimized as much as possible.

They are the result of human civilization's flaws.

They are unnecessary in an optimal society.

It will have a bigger impact than AI in the short term.

It will lead to a shortage of silicon chips.

It will increase the demand for AI compute power.

It will require a tripling of electricity output.

There should be regulatory oversight and collaboration among leading players.

It should be a competitive race to develop AGI.

It should be left to individual companies without any oversight.

It should be controlled by a single organization.

Kidnapped a seal and played sonic boom sounds to it

Released the seals near rocket launch sites

To combat companies running away with AGI

To rate and review notes posted on the platform

To provide a platform for political discussions

To allow people with different viewpoints to collaborate and write notes

To share permanent articles about various topics

To allow users to post only truthful content

To allow Donald Trump to post on the platform

He thinks it is a rebranded form of communism

He believes they are corrupt and pursue their own career interests

He thinks they are a force for good and protect retail investors

He believes they are biased against hedge funds

Being too optimistic about meeting deadlines

Being too pessimistic about technological advancements

The belief that good actions will be rewarded and bad actions will be punished

Seeing bad behavior in everyone and excusing one's own bad behavior

Reporting on the worst things that happen in the world

To be more energy-efficient than a human brain

To be able to perform complex manipulations

To have a deep understanding of the world

Forgiveness is difficult and should be avoided

Holding onto grudges does not affect the future in a good way

The similarities between their learning processes

The differences between biological and digital neural nets

The beauty and magic in both biological and digital systems

The new and fresh perspective they bring to the world

Elon Musk discusses the nature of war and violence in human societies, drawing comparisons to chimpanzee behavior. He expresses his belief in the importance of peace and suggests that acts of kindness and transparency could help minimize suffering in conflicts like the one between Israel and Gaza. Musk acknowledges that war has always existed and may continue to exist in the future, but emphasizes the need to reduce the creation of terrorists and strive for long-term peace.

- The speaker discusses the possibility of galactic war and how it can coexist with pockets of flourishing.
- They express concern about the lack of understanding and awareness of the horrors of war, particularly in the US.
- The speaker mentions the threat of nuclear war and the current probability being low, but acknowledges the presence of nuclear weapons.
- The war in Ukraine is discussed, with an emphasis on the high casualties and lack of significant changes in land.
- The speaker advises against sending young soldiers to die in trenches and emphasizes the need for peace negotiations.
- The potential for war between the US and China is mentioned, and the speaker recommends reading about the Thucydides trap.

- The video discusses the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta and the importance of written records in understanding historical events.
- The speaker then transitions to discussing the potential clash between China and the United States, highlighting the economic power of China and the need for cultural understanding to prevent conflict.
- The speaker praises the intelligence and hardworking nature of the Chinese people, as well as their impressive architecture and history.
- It is noted that China has historically been internally focused and not acquisitive, which is seen as a positive factor for future peace between superpowers.
- The speaker also mentions the benevolent actions of the United States after World War II and compares the moral treatment of prisoners of war by different countries.
- The shared principle of non-acquisitiveness is highlighted between China and the United States, although China has a strong stance on Taiwan.

- China views Taiwan as a part of China that should be incorporated, and they have expressed their intention to do so peacefully or militarily.
- Conspicuous acts of kindness can potentially deescalate conflicts and prevent wars.
- After World War I, blaming Germany and imposing heavy reparations led to resentment and eventually World War II. The approach of helping rebuild Germany after World War II was seen as a better solution.
- The AI system Grok AI Assistant has been released and is praised for its capabilities and the fun mode it offers.
- The AI system aims to expand consciousness and curiosity, asking questions about the universe.
- The development team is working to provide reliable answers based on engineering, math, and physics principles.
- The goal of XAI is to understand the universe and potentially make discoveries in the field of physics.
- The AI system should be able to figure out new physics in order to surpass humans and make theoretical physics discoveries.
- Engineering possibilities are greater than physics discoveries, as once the rules of the universe are understood, technologies can be built based on those rules.
- The reliability of the AI system needs to be tested against the ground truth of reality, as physics is the ultimate judge.

- The speaker discusses the importance of coherence and self-awareness in an AI system's reasoning process.
- They explore the concept of intelligence and consciousness, questioning what thought and emotion are and how they exist.
- The speaker ponders the possibility of everything being conscious or nothing being conscious.
- They discuss the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial life and the potential need for humanity to become multi-planetary to avoid extinction.
- The Fermi paradox is mentioned, suggesting that civilizations may not pass certain filters, such as becoming multi-planet civilizations.
- The speaker suggests the possibility of aliens protecting humanity or that they may have already gone extinct.
- The analogy of ants in the Amazon is used to illustrate the idea of different levels of awareness and interaction.

- The conversation covers a range of topics including ants, Werner Herzog, aliens, multi-planetary life, and video games.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of making life multi-planetary while it is still possible.
- They discuss the lack of an official policy for meeting aliens and the responsibility to share any findings.
- The conversation delves into philosophical discussions about God, determinism versus free will, and the purpose of existence.
- The speaker relates their struggles in a video game to life and finds solace in playing games.

- Elon Musk discusses the nature of war and violence, emphasizing the importance of peace and reducing suffering in conflicts.
- He mentions the possibility of galactic war and the need for understanding the horrors of war.
- Musk also discusses the war in Ukraine and the potential for conflict between the US and China.
- He highlights the importance of cultural understanding and non-acquisitiveness between superpowers.
- Musk praises the intelligence and history of the Chinese people and discusses the potential clash over Taiwan.
- He suggests that acts of kindness can deescalate conflicts and prevent wars.
- Musk discusses the development of the AI system Grok AI Assistant and its goal of understanding the universe and making discoveries in physics.
- He explores the concepts of intelligence, consciousness, and the need for humanity to become multi-planetary.
- Musk mentions the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial life and the responsibility to share any findings.
- The conversation also covers philosophical discussions about God, free will, and the purpose of existence.

- The speaker discusses the importance of finding a balance in video games that is not too easy or too hard.
- They praise the art and engaging storylines in the game Elden Ring, considering it a puzzle to solve.
- The speaker mentions that they have not played Elden Ring but believe it could be one of the best games ever.
- They discuss the difficulty of the game and the unique boss battles, with one battle being particularly challenging.
- The speaker reflects on the concept of wishing for eternal peace and the potential negative consequences it could bring.
- They mention the drug Soma from Brave New World and its real-life counterpart, discussing its effects and the philosophical questions it raises.
- The speaker questions the idea of a world without hate or suffering, considering that some amount of suffering may be necessary for human growth and appreciation of happiness.

- The focus of XAI is on training LLMs efficiently.
- The limit of efficiency is determined by useful productivity per watt.
- There is a silicon shortage currently, followed by a voltage transformer shortage in about a year, and then general electricity shortages in about two years.
- The demand for electricity will triple due to the electrification of transport and heating, as well as the growing demand for electricity in AI.
- The problem of maximizing useful productivity per watt for training neural nets will eventually be solved, but the timeframe is uncertain.
- Regulatory oversight is needed to ensure the safe development of AI, and an objective third party could fulfill this role.
- Tesla already faces significant regulatory oversight in the automotive and rocket industries.
- Regulatory approval is currently the limiting factor for SpaceX's Starship launch.
- Absurd situations have arisen in the regulatory process, such as concerns about rockets hitting sharks and whales, despite the low probability of such encounters.

- The speaker discusses the absurdity of certain bureaucratic procedures, such as testing sonic booms on seals for rocket launches.
- They mention the idea of open sourcing AI and the need for a lot of computing power for advanced intelligence.
- The speaker expresses concerns about OpenAI's shift from open source to closed source for profit.
- They talk about their past friendship with Larry Page and their involvement in recruiting key individuals for OpenAI.
- The speaker suggests the possibility of delayed open sourcing and the challenges of separating signal from noise in data.

- The X algorithm uses machine learning to recommend tweets to users.
- The algorithm picks 1500 tweets from a pool of hundreds of millions.
- It clusters tweets to determine what kind of content is relevant to each user.
- The algorithm ranks and filters the tweets to recommend a handful to each user.
- The current pipeline takes 220 seconds of CPU time, but it needs to be faster.
- The algorithm is not currently good at recommending content from accounts users don't follow or where there is more than one degree of separation.
- The goal is to convert the recommendation system into an end-to-end neural net.
- The system should be able to recommend content based on vectors associated with each user's preferences.
- The system should be able to handle various types of content, not just tweets.
- The AI could analyze movies and recommend them based on user preferences.
- The system should also provide well-done and relevant advertisements.
- Attention and user seconds are important factors in determining the success of content.
- The aspiration is to maximize unregretted minutes on the platform.
- The algorithm aims to provide accurate and helpful information and learn from mistakes.

- The speaker discusses the importance of being rescued from a hostage situation and the need for humor in difficult situations.
- They mention the role of Twitter in American politics and the platform's goal of being fair and inclusive.
- The speaker talks about the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the platform and the concept of "Truth Social."
- They discuss the effectiveness of Twitter's community notes feature in promoting diverse viewpoints and preventing incorrect information.
- The speaker explains how community notes work and compares it to Wikipedia.
- They mention the transparency of the system and its resistance to interference.
- The conversation briefly touches on criticism of Elon Musk and his past statements and actions.

- Elon Musk discusses how law firms and regulatory capture prevent attacks on hedge funds
- He clarifies that there was no settlement in the lawsuit against him for calling a British cave diver a "pedo guy"
- Musk highlights the importance of reading court conclusions to get the true story beyond media reporting
- He admits to being overly optimistic about autopilot and acknowledges the need for more accurate predictions
- Musk expresses his stance against the "woke mind virus" and emphasizes the importance of discussion and empathy
- He mentions his political views, being left of center on social issues and right of center on economic issues
- Musk jokes about his famous status and the difficulty of finding trustworthy people in his position
- He discusses the use of neural nets and karma in assessing trustworthiness and avoiding cynicism.

- The speaker discusses the importance of balance in video games and praises the game Elden Ring.
- They reflect on the concept of eternal peace and the potential negative consequences.
- The speaker discusses the need for regulatory oversight in AI development and mentions absurd bureaucratic procedures.
- They express concerns about OpenAI's shift to closed source and discuss the challenges of open sourcing AI.
- The X algorithm recommends tweets to users based on their preferences and aims to improve its capabilities.
- The speaker discusses the role of Twitter in American politics and the effectiveness of community notes.
- Elon Musk discusses issues related to law firms, regulatory capture, and his past statements and actions.
- He highlights the importance of reading court conclusions, expresses his stance against the "woke mind virus," and discusses his political views and trustworthiness assessment.

- The speaker believes that cynicism is a red flag and that people should focus on seeing the good in others.
- The speaker criticizes the mainstream media for its negative bias and praises the X platform for being less negative.
- The speaker discusses the capabilities of Tesla Autopilot and its ability to learn from video like humans.
- The speaker compares Tesla Autopilot to LLMs (language models) and believes they are both heading towards AGI (artificial general intelligence).
- The speaker highlights the computer efficiency of the Tesla approach and its potential to understand the real world faster than LLMs.
- The speaker discusses the energy efficiency of the human brain and believes that AI models will become more efficient over time.
- The speaker talks about the challenges of developing Optimus, a humanoid robot, and the need to design every part from scratch.

- The goal is to design a robot that is mass-manufacturable and inexpensive compared to other robots like Boston Dynamics Atlas.
- The robot, called Optimus, has advanced finger manipulation capabilities and is designed to pick up a needle and thread it just by looking.
- The team believes they can make Optimus for less than the cost of a car.
- The learning process for the robot will be similar to the process used in autonomous cars.
- Elon Musk discusses his personal struggles and loneliness, but overall he is doing okay.
- He does not harbor resentment or hold grudges, as forgiveness is not productive for the future.
- Musk finds parallels between his children's development and the development of AI.
- He sees beauty and magic in both biological and digital neural networks.
- The conversation concludes with gratitude and admiration for Musk's work and hope for a positive future.

- The speaker emphasizes the importance of seeing the good in others and criticizes cynicism.
- They praise the X platform for its positive approach compared to mainstream media.
- The capabilities of Tesla Autopilot and its potential for artificial general intelligence are discussed.
- The efficiency of Tesla's approach and the potential for faster understanding of the real world are highlighted.
- The challenges and goals of developing the Optimus humanoid robot are discussed.
- Elon Musk discusses personal struggles, forgiveness, and parallels between AI and child development.
- The conversation ends with gratitude for Musk's work and hope for a positive future.

Elon Musk is CEO of X, xAI, SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, and The Boring Company.

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EPISODE LINKS:
Elon's X: https://x.com/elonmusk
xAI: https://x.com/xai
Tesla: https://x.com/tesla
Tesla Optimus: https://x.com/tesla_optimus
Tesla AI: https://x.com/Tesla_AI
SpaceX: https://x.com/spacex
Neuralink: https://x.com/neuralink
The Boring Company: https://x.com/boringcompany

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OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
0:07 - War and human nature
4:33 - Israel-Hamas war
10:41 - Military-Industrial Complex
14:58 - War in Ukraine
19:41 - China
33:57 - xAI Grok
44:55 - Aliens
52:55 - God
55:22 - Diablo 4 and video games
1:04:29 - Dystopian worlds: 1984 and Brave New World
1:10:41 - AI and useful compute per watt
1:16:22 - AI regulation
1:23:14 - Should AI be open-sourced?
1:30:36 - X algorithm
1:41:57 - 2024 presidential elections
1:54:55 - Politics
1:57:57 - Trust
2:03:29 - Tesla's Autopilot and Optimus robot
2:12:28 - Hardships

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The following is a conversation with Elon Musk, his fourth time on this, the Lex Friedman Podcast.

It's 1 of the greatest themes in all of film history.

So I was just thinking about the Roman Empire, as 1 does.

There's that whole meme where guys are thinking about the Roman Empire at least once

And half the population's confused whether it's true or not.

But more seriously, thinking about the wars going on in the world today, and as you know, war and military conquest has been a big part of most empires and dynasties throughout human history, so.

Yeah, they usually came as a result of conquest.

I mean, there's some like the Austro-Hungarian Empire where there was just a lot of sort of clever marriages.

But fundamentally, there's an engine of conquest.

And they celebrate excellence in warfare.

Many of the leaders were excellent generals.

To what degree do you think war is part of human nature versus a consequence of how human societies are structured.

I ask this as you have somehow controversially been a proponent of peace.

I mean, ignorance is perhaps in my view, the real enemy to counter it.

That's the real hard part, not fighting other humans.

I mean, the jungle is like, you look at the, people think of nature as perhaps some sort of peaceful thing, but in fact it is not.

There's some quite funny Werner Herzog thing where he's like in the jungle, saying that it's like basically just murder and death in every direction.

I mean, the plants and animals in the jungle are constantly trying to kill and eat each other.

So it's not like we're unusual in that respect.

There's a relevant question here, whether with greater intelligence comes greater control over these base instincts for violence?

Yes, we have much more of an ability to control our lumbar instinct for violence than say a chimpanzee.

And in fact, if 1 looks at say chimpanzee society, it is not friendly.

I mean, the bonobos are an exception, but chimpanzee society is full of violence, and it's quite horrific, frankly.

Like you don't want to be on the wrong side of a chimpanzee, it'll eat your face off and tear your nuts off.

Yeah, basically there's no limits or ethics or, they're almost a just war.

There's no just war in chimpanzee societies.

Is war and dominance by any means necessary.

Yeah, Chauvinist society is like a primitive version of human society.

They're not like peace loving, basically, at all.

And then once in a while, somebody who's watched too many Disney movies decides to raise his chimpanzee as a pet, and then that eats their face or rips their nuts off or chews their fingers off and that kind of thing.

Ripping your nuts off is an interesting strategy for interaction.

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Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #400