"All those companies that haven't yet had a success can switch overnight from thinking the technology is essential to 'we better get out of this, otherwise we are going to look foolish'. That's what happened with expert systems in the late 80's, which is a shame because by then we already had the technological solutions that would've alleviated a lot of the difficulties." - Stuart Russell (2017)

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So what happens in these things is that technology comes out and it's happening now with deep learning everyone says.

If I don't get hold of this technology and build up a group within my company that knows how to do it then I'm gonna be left behind So they start investing in the technology without any evidence that it actually works to solve their problem.

On the assumption that if they don't, they'll be left behind, that there's a potential gain here, we can't afford to lose it.

And then they start to hear stories that, oh, this other company, you know, they tried 6 times, and it just fails, right, didn't work for their problem.

Then they start to lose faith very quickly.

All those companies that haven't yet had a success can switch overnight from thinking it's essential to we better get out of this otherwise we're gonna look foolish.

So that's sort of what happened with the expert system in the late 80s, which is a shame because by then we already had the technological solutions that would have alleviated a lot of the problems.


Speaker 0: So what happens in these things is that technology comes out and it's happening now with deep learning everyone says. If I don't get hold of this technology and build up a group within my company that knows how to do it then I'm gonna be left behind So they start investing in the technology without any evidence that it actually works to solve their problem. On the assumption that if they don't, they'll be left behind, that there's a potential gain here, we can't afford to lose it. And then they start to hear stories that, oh, this other company, you know, they tried 6 times, and it just fails, right, didn't work for their problem. Then they start to lose faith very quickly.

All those companies that haven't yet had a success can switch overnight from thinking it's essential to we better get out of this otherwise we're gonna look foolish. So that's sort of what happened with the expert system in the late 80s, which is a shame because by then we already had the technological solutions that would have alleviated a lot of the problems.

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Stuart Russell: AI Winter