Punita Kumar Sinha का Outlook | Global बाजारों के लिए भारत कितना अहम है? अब नहीं बढ़ेंगे दरें? #BigMarketVoices। ग्लोबल माइक्रो हालात अभी भी ज्यादा ठीक नहीं । भारतीय मार्केट निवेश का स्वीट प्वाइंट है। कच्चे माल के दाम घटने से ऑटो में तेजी आई : Punita Kumar-Sinha

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Has the inflation risk returned to the market?

Is this the reason for this correction that we have seen?

Or is there any other reason for this correction?

My view is that the inflation risk is not a big deal right now.

There is no significant data that indicates this.

But yes, food inflation is a bit concerning because wheat prices and other vegetable prices are going up and it is a global phenomenon.

And for this, central banks are also a little worried globally.

And that is why, although they are on a pause now, like RBI, Fed, but we will keep watching it.

So this uncertainty will remain for a few days until the inflation is completely cooled off, food inflation in particular.

The biggest worry of the market has been about the banks.

Bank Nifty has corrected 5-6% of the inflation, but the big banks like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India have been very weak, especially after the last quarter's numbers.

And there was a lot of pressure on the margins of these banks.

Did you make a near-term top here or did you take away the leadership from here?

Or will the leadership remain here after the correction?

Look, the large-cap index has a very big component, financials and banks.

So as far as investors, especially foreign investors, who do not have much liquidity in mid and small caps, they have to invest in banks if it wants to invest in India.

So, as long as India remains in an overweight position in investment portfolios versus other emerging then, investment flows will come to the banks.

And that is why I believe that if there is a correction in the banks, but if India's outlook is overall positive, then there will be some improvement in the banks.

And if we look at India's economy, then the economy is very dependent on the financial sector.

Our CAPEX cycle will also come from the funding banks and consumer loans will also come from the banks.

So, the banking sector has lower valuations than other sectors and if we measure it with our history, If we want to play the Indian CapEx cycle and the Indian economy, then I think investing in the banking sector is a good sector for the long term.

And now the Indian market is in a lot of favor globally because India's economy is very healthy.

Everyone is praising India and India is benefiting from China's problems.

India is also focusing on foreign portfolio and strategic investors.

All global companies are also trying to expand their business in India.

So, as more people enter India, I me, the banking sector will have a strong demand there and of course, banks will have to manage their balance sheet properly and margins will have to be managed.

But now, according to me, there is no need to worry about that.

Okay, Punita ma'am, your conviction is still based on the banks.

Ma'am, a year has passed and our IT is still in this zone.

But especially after this quarter, I mean, Infosys has trimmed its guarantees, or the numbers, or the way the US economy is behaving.

Neither has Nifty IT participated in the upside of this quarter, and frankly speaking, the downtrend since the last day, when FIS has sold about 13, 000 to 14, 000 crores, nor has it participated in the downside.

Do you think it is more reasonable to chase IT from here?

The IT sector has now become a little defensive sector, in which the dividend yield is very high.

If you look at the cash flows of these companies, the cash flow and how much dividend they give, their capital return policies are very generous.

So, every defensive sector in India has been formed.

Such a strong growth sector is not being considered nowadays.

And of course, now, like The earnings of the IT sector is dependent on the US economy.

The US economy, tech sector, US corporate sector, are very dependent.

So, the slowdown that we are seeing, if the rate hikes in the US economy pause and the economy starts to land softly, there is no recession, which is a general consensus view that it will only be a soft landing, then the growth will pick up slowly.

I have heard anecdotally that there were hiring layoffs in the US tech sector.

Now, those layoffs have slowly ended and re-hiring has started.

So, if the US economy and rate hikes become stable, then the Indian IT sector can grow again.

But this is a sector where valuations are starting to look a little reasonable.

Puneetaji, a space where there is a little vibrancy again is New Age Stocks.

Zomato, Paytm, PB Fintech, Delivery, the whole basket has outperformed a lot in the last 6 months.

Have you made any investments or taken any positive view?

Their prices had fallen a lot due to IPO prices.

The valuation was looking a little reasonable.

But this move, according to me, is a global trend.

All these new age companies in the US, in Nasdaq, have all moved.

So this is not just a phenomenon of Indian new age companies, It is a global phenomenon because the markets, even Nasdaq has rallied a lot this year.

So, along with that, these companies and their counterparts in the rest of the economies, all of them have rallied.

Whether it will sustain or not, We will have to see that now because again in companies the individual growth prospects will have to see whether there is any profit visibility or not.

As you saw today, if any company's earnings are slightly negative, then the stock immediately drops by

So, there will be a risk in these companies as well.

So, I think they should be cautious and invest in bull market.

Because in bull market, small caps and new age companies are always good.

Okay, Punita ji, thank you so much for talking to us today.


Speaker 0: Good afternoon, Puneeta ji. What is the situation in the market? Has the inflation risk returned to the market? Is this the reason for this correction that we have seen? Or is there any other reason for this correction?

What is your view on this?

Speaker 1: My view is that the inflation risk is not a big deal right now. There is no significant data that indicates this. But yes, food inflation is a bit concerning because wheat prices and other vegetable prices are going up and it is a global phenomenon. And for this, central banks are also a little worried globally. And that is why, although they are on a pause now, like RBI, Fed, but we will keep watching it.

So this uncertainty will remain for a few days until the inflation is completely cooled off, food inflation in particular.

Speaker 0: The biggest worry of the market has been about the banks. Bank Nifty has corrected 5-6% of the inflation, but the big banks like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India have been very weak, especially after the last quarter's numbers. And there was a lot of pressure on the margins of these banks. Did you make a near-term top here or did you take away the leadership from here? Or will the leadership remain here after the correction?

Speaker 1: Look, the large-cap index has a very big component, financials and banks. So as far as investors, especially foreign investors, who do not have much liquidity in mid and small caps, they have to invest in banks if it wants to invest in India. So, as long as India remains in an overweight position in investment portfolios versus other emerging then, investment flows will come to the banks. And that is why I believe that if there is a correction in the banks, but if India's outlook is overall positive, then there will be some improvement in the banks. And if we look at India's economy, then the economy is very dependent on the financial sector.

Our CAPEX cycle will also come from the funding banks and consumer loans will also come from the banks. So, the banking sector has lower valuations than other sectors and if we measure it with our history, If we want to play the Indian CapEx cycle and the Indian economy, then I think investing in the banking sector is a good sector for the long term. And now the Indian market is in a lot of favor globally because India's economy is very healthy. Everyone is praising India and India is benefiting from China's problems. India is also focusing on foreign portfolio and strategic investors.

All global companies are also trying to expand their business in India. So, as more people enter India, I me, the banking sector will have a strong demand there and of course, banks will have to manage their balance sheet properly and margins will have to be managed. But now, according to me, there is no need to worry about that.

Speaker 2: Okay, Punita ma'am, your conviction is still based on the banks. Ma'am, a year has passed and our IT is still in this zone. But especially after this quarter, I mean, Infosys has trimmed its guarantees, or the numbers, or the way the US economy is behaving. Neither has Nifty IT participated in the upside of this quarter, and frankly speaking, the downtrend since the last day, when FIS has sold about 13, 000 to 14, 000 crores, nor has it participated in the downside. Now, the price is factoring in.

Do you think it is more reasonable to chase IT from here?

Speaker 1: The IT sector has now become a little defensive sector, in which the dividend yield is very high. If you look at the cash flows of these companies, the cash flow and how much dividend they give, their capital return policies are very generous. So, every defensive sector in India has been formed. Such a strong growth sector is not being considered nowadays. And of course, now, like The earnings of the IT sector is dependent on the US economy.

The US economy, tech sector, US corporate sector, are very dependent. So, the slowdown that we are seeing, if the rate hikes in the US economy pause and the economy starts to land softly, there is no recession, which is a general consensus view that it will only be a soft landing, then the growth will pick up slowly. I have heard anecdotally that there were hiring layoffs in the US tech sector. Now, those layoffs have slowly ended and re-hiring has started. Which means there are some green shoots.

So, if the US economy and rate hikes become stable, then the Indian IT sector can grow again. So, you have to watch out for that. I mean, there's no rush to jump in. There's no rush to invest now. But this is a sector where valuations are starting to look a little reasonable.

So keep this under watch.

Speaker 0: OK, keep it under watch. Puneetaji, a space where there is a little vibrancy again is New Age Stocks. Zomato, Paytm, PB Fintech, Delivery, the whole basket has outperformed a lot in the last 6 months. Have you made any investments or taken any positive view?

Speaker 1: I think these stocks had fallen a lot. Their prices had fallen a lot due to IPO prices. The valuation was looking a little reasonable. But this move, according to me, is a global trend. All these new age companies in the US, in Nasdaq, have all moved.

So this is not just a phenomenon of Indian new age companies, It is a global phenomenon because the markets, even Nasdaq has rallied a lot this year. So, along with that, these companies and their counterparts in the rest of the economies, all of them have rallied. Whether it will sustain or not, We will have to see that now because again in companies the individual growth prospects will have to see whether there is any profit visibility or not. As you saw today, if any company's earnings are slightly negative, then the stock immediately drops by

Speaker 0: 8-10%.

Speaker 1: So, there will be a risk in these companies as well. So, I think they should be cautious and invest in bull market. Because in bull market, small caps and new age companies are always good. So, we were having a bull market. So, I think they will get a good return.

Speaker 0: Okay, Punita ji, thank you so much for talking to us today. Thank

Speaker 1: you you

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